"Housing boom is 'officially' over"...

Hi Guys,

Im catching up on articles and this one sounded pessimistic and possibly exaggerated?

Has anyone discussed this yet here?

Australia's world record housing boom is 'officially' over, UBS says

Hope you are all enjoying the new year!

 

This is a broad statement, so which market is officially over?

 

We discussed a similar article by the same company last month. Consensus is that it is a load of garbage. If I could be bothered, I would go through this article line by line and point out how ACARA would have us teach a classroom of 15 year olds how to analyse a source document.

 

UBS has a vested interest in shorting Aussie housing.

 

like @MTR said, very broad statement, many other markets will still do well. Again someone referring to australian market as SYDNEY only

 

UBS again,

 

Definitely, i know first hand. Some of our places in China have seriously dwarfed Sydney's growth over the last few years. And units at that.


Personally I think the whole Sydney boom ( while it definitely has grown alot) and subsequent doom and gloom has been sensationalized and been largely blown out of proportion. We will see some corrections in certain places and stock types but i definitely don't see any widespread bust coming. Not even close imo.

 

It's only just starting in Brisbane!!!

 

Can you please elaborate on this point more?

 

Our housing boom has only been ended due to government intervention.
If it Wasn't for thr government it would albeit out of control continue.
We will see what APRA does in future

 

Surey there can't be another market?

Sure a city like Melbourne which will surpass Sydney' population in the next 10 years...is not even considered or a market like Brisbane which will hit almost 3m people by 2030 is a consideration?

 

Hi @Biz

My personal view of markets in Sydney which have a higher likelihood of larger corrections are OTP units in highly saturated areas of oversupply all over Sydney, higher end luxury markets above the 4 mil price point and areas of higher investor driven loans at prices far exceeding closer suburbs to the cbd and or neighbouring suburbs.

I think those markets have a much higher likelihood to see larger corrections. I do think Sydney as a city of many markets has an overall decent chance to experience some general smaller price pullback or at the very least some stagnation for awhile or have minimal overall growth over the next few years.

The reason why I don't believe we will have a widespread crash is because
current overall supply would need to be high enough that it exceeded demand which I don't believe is the case.

Also, the cost to borrow would need to increase sharply and quickly which i also dont see happening. In addition, unemployment would also need to reach sky high levels which is quite the opposite atm.

I also think our financial controls are alot more robust and stringent than other countries and APRA has done a good job to cool markets atm.


In addition to all that, there would need to be a panic from many people looking to sell their properties at the same time, which again I just don't see happening given Australia's historical love affair with real estate. Baring some catastrophic event occurring, I just don't see a widespread major crash on our hands in Sydney.

That's my own view on the market at the moment.

 

So curtains won't become cheaper?

 

Bugger..

 

Thanks so much everyone, I can relax again It did sound a little sensationalised. Love this forum.

 

Nice summary, thanks Leo.

 

Np. It's just my take. You can ask 10 ppl and they'll all have different views.

 

Curtain shops are finished.

 

It's curtains for curtains!