House price decline from peak... so far

The problem with graphs is that they don't reflect what can be achieved with individual properties.

 

I always hear this but are there any examples of properties in Sydney or Melbourne that are worth more now than at the peak? I haven't seen any examples and there have been plenty of investment grade properties sold recently. Frankly if you've made capital gains in Sydney or Melbourne over the last couple of years you're either incredibly lucky or an investing genius.

 

Melbourne is big with different areas. Some areas peaked in late 2016, some in mid 2018. There is an 18 months gap so people still can make good CG in the last couple of years. I bought in late 2016 and sold in mid 2018 with close to $90k net profit. A friend of mine bought in late 2015 and sold in mid 2018 too with $230k net profit (no CGT since it is a PPOR). Maybe we are all lucky.

 

Except the Melbourne market grew over those time periods. According to domain the median house prices at those times were:

December 2015 - $721,167
December 2016 - $795,447
June 2018 - $882,082

So if your houses matched the median you would've expected 10.9% price growth and your friend would've expected 22.3% price growth. So I don't think you were lucky with the specific house it seems you just rode the market higher (and sold at a smart time).

 

I'm a genius then I was one of many people who sold up in outer west Melbourne last year and made $100k. I'll make about $150k subdividing a block of land in regional Vic this year and about half a million doing a house and land packages in NZ. Like I said, I haven't even looked at a graph, can't see the value.
. .

 

@ellejay
In my last 18 years of investing I've never made any buy decision based on looking at any graph.

And I've done ok, so I don't think I'll be obsessing over graphs any time soon.

 

The other thing about these price indices is they excluded OTP sales, which would drag it down considerably