House price decline from peak... so far

Do you have this kind of graph for Brisbane? Thanks!

 

Stay away from dark rooms. The second you step in you'll start developing

 

Feb19 listing update:

• Sydney listing increased by 11.6%
• Melbourne listing increased by 9.6%

 

Sydney House price Mar19
Peak CoreLogic Index = 182 (Oct 17)
CL Sydney house price Index = 154.85
Fall from peak = 14.92%
i.e. Sydney houses have so far lost 33.1% of its total peak gain from 2012

 

Wow, Syd will hit -15% in the next few days. - 20% by end of year? At that level, it's surely going to cause some issues with the wider economy.

 

With a NG/CGT change deadline in sight, if Labor wins there is an expectation of demand pickup from cashed up investors trying to lockin.
Wondering if there will be a price pickup? or rather it will be seen as an opportunity to offload by some?, especially in Syd/Mleb where post jan2020 new investors is unlikely to buy existing dwelling given the low yield.

In the absence of investors from existing dwelling segments there is a high chance of further price falls followed by long stagnation after that.
I wonder if we will see 2017 peak price in Syd/melb even by 2025.

 

All this while we may not have hit the interval yet,
a big part of the movie is yet to be played,
the main villain credit tightening is still strong,
side kicks like IO2PI still has lot of steam left,
OTC defaults just getting awakened

NG/CGT just making its presence felt
and the crazy villain FONGO yet to enter the scene.

 

Seems to me Melbourne will be worse of than Sydney in this decline as its not far behind and started coming off months later than Sydney

 

Looks like corelogic has data to prove my thoughts

Melbourne 12.4% house price drop the weakest capital city over past year: CoreLogic

 

Mar 19 listing update
Increase in listings from last month

• Melbourne: 8.3%
• Sydney 5.9%

https://sqmresearch.com.au/02 4 19_...ngs Increase in MAR 2019_Media Release_v1.pdf

 

Declines from peak (all dwellings)

Note: Sydney house prices, by end of Mar19, have declined by 14.92% from peak.

 

Does anyone have the detailed price by suburb/council for Melb?

 

Not over yet.

The interest rate has not raised twice yet so it is not over.

I reckon 2020-2022 the world will enter into recession.

 

Thanks for that info .....Nostradamus

 

Well if the RBA were to start dropping interest rates again , its a pretty good indication that they expect a rising unemployment rate with further job losses, usually rates will come down further after unemployment rates go up, not when they think they might go up.
Global economies are also expected to grow at a lot smaller pace than previously expected.
Not ideal for commodity currencies like the AUD.
And with most advanced economies staring down the barrel of mega low interest rates with no chance of dropping interest by 300-400 pts to kickstart their economies , it leaves them with no where to hide.

 

Agree, I think the RBA will continue to hold until unemployment spikes or things get dire, since it will be an all out signal of weakness, which will do more harm than a 50pt cut can do good.. That said, I think they will cut sometime this year.

 

Yeah but who wants to neg gear when prices are falling?

 

I hope they do not cut, no matter how bad it gets, cause, last cuts only poured fuel on Syd and Melb property fire, unless a *real* emergency, they should be raising, not cutting, even though that goes against what many like me may appreciate.....

Keep the real ammo for real problems, a chunk of people having probs paying P&I is not a crisis...

 

negative gearing is a ******** thing anyway, only good for those with lots of money and lot of income, the real prob is, if you remove now, it will add too the pressure on the down cycle, it should be removed next time Syd and Melb are rising or credit loosens

 

There never is a good time to remove negative gearing for existing properties , ideally it would work best when a market is oversupplied with rentals , in a tightening rental market its always going to end in tears as the market will take time to building new property.
Do it when house prices start to rise , and you are spoiling the party
Do it at the end ,after a boom and the market would probably see good losses as prices usually overshoot slightly.
Then you have different cities at different stages of the property cycle.