Good article about housing prices

How 150 years of Australian housing prices shows that the bubble will likely come to an end: Philip Soos

 

Philip Soos and Lindsay David have the best datasets and graphs on historical housing prices in Australia. However, I don't agree with their conclusions. For example:-

The overarching private debt bubble, which began in 1964, will likely come to an end once and for all when the government runs out of fuel to throw on the fire.​

Really? So, after the crash, people will never borrow again? Seems unlikely. The USA had one of the worst property crashes in history but housing prices have recovered and the market is doing well again.

You will note the article you linked to was published in February 2013. The problem with these 'imminent crash' articles is that people listen to them. Think of an investor or home buyer in Sydney who read this article and thought oh, I will just wait for the crash before investing or buying a home. What has happened to prices in Sydney between Feb 2013 and now? It could have cost someone who believed this article hundreds of thousands of dollars if they have been waiting since then to buy a home. There was a member of this forum who would not buy a home for his family because he was waiting for this mythical crash.

Anyway, the Sydney market can't keep going and will correct eventually. So eventually this article will prove to be correct. It's just a shame the correction will come too late for some people.

 

Phillip Soos has been predicting the end of the Australian property market for a number of years , and I'm fairly certain since prior to the current Sydney boom

For some reason I ignore what he says and for a while l haven't even bothered reading what he says .

I'm glad I've done that and I'm significantly financially better off because I have ignored what he and other D&G merchants say .

Cliff

 

That's why I get so wound up with the D&G brigade during a RE growth phase. If ppl listen to them, it costs them money - sometimes a LOT of money.

 

preaching D&G when you can physically see house prices rising tells me they are not investors ... there was a guy who posted on SS, he was the mother of all D&G, freckle... ...I suppose he was amusing at times, but then its got a little boring

 

The unfortunate thing is that these people make a living from predicting the property market is about to catastrophically collapse. We know people listen to them because they have posted on this forum that they are holding off buying a family home until the property market collapses and prices drop 40% as predicted. I can't fathom the quantum of lost capital growth from Feb 2013 to now in Sydney. It's kind of tragic really.