Geelong / Wollongong or Brisbane

I am following this thread with great interest. I have been looking at Newtown as my cousin has a development project here. The price point in Newtown is probably beyond me though.

Given the various discussions so far, with a budget of 500K, will it be better to look at the north side suburbs or those in the south east like Newcomb/East Geelong? I am planning to hold longterm

 

Hi @kimbo,

Quite a number of options with that kind of budget actually:
1. If you want to buy closer to Melbourne, then maybe somewhere around Werribee (existing house) or even Wyndham Vale (land + new build). if you get the land and then build a new house then it'll be around $400 to $450K depending on the land and how big the house is. This way you get an OK yield plus enjoying depreciation benefits.

2. East Geelong might be a bit of stretch with 500K. But with Newcomb you will have no issue picking up something more likely around $300K to high $300K depending on where you buy. You can refer to the Newcomb map I've drawn here:
Newcomb Map (Marked up)

For Newcomb/Whittington you can try look for a big block which can be subdivided later on, like what your cousin is currently doing at Newtown.

3. North Geelong - I actually quite like North Geelong especially the part close to the foreshore, train station as well as West Geelong. This one got sold recently for $355K and it's so close to the station:
38 Slevin Street, North Geelong, Vic 3215 - Property Details
Decent price point with train station...that's why I think North Geelong would also be a good pick too.

Which suburb to pick will depend on what you're planning to do later on. If you just want a bread and butter property to hold long term then buy as close to Geelong CBD as you can. Otherwise if you want a block with subdivision potential later on then Newcomb/Whittington would be a good pick look for a old house on a bigger block

Cheers,
David

 

@David Shih Can you share any intel on the best areas (or areas to avoid) of Bell Post Hill or Hamlyn Hill. The Newcomb map is really helpful

 

Brisbane without a shadow of a doubt with that budget - and inside the 8km ring max.

 

I'm living in Geelong, have family here and am from Victoria originally.

Geelong has some great spots but I think some investors have stars in their eyes about certain areas here.

Corio and Norlane are cheap, sure but are also highly disadvantaged communities http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au...k=81fe7580ee406f86c565ecaf03cf4b9b-1496033689

This is why they are crime hotspots. Read an article about crime in Geelong and you can almost always guess where it takes place.

I think it's arguable whether gentrification is actually happening here. Some of the northern areas are looking attractive to Melbourne people because of price and it takes them an hour+ to get to work anyway so why not live in Geelong and at least have a decent house? I get that this is happening but I'm not sure to what degree. You can tour these areas and they haven't improved in quality for a while now.

For example, seeing better cars, seeing gardens, seeing well maintained homes - all signs of gentrification. I drive North and I see multiple cars on front lawns, mattresses dumped, and every other sign of poverty and disadvantage. Then this is backed up by the crime and poverty stats.

As a feeder for Melbourne... yeah, I guess Geelong could become what Wollongong is to Sydney. On a state level upgrading services between Melbourne and Geelong would take pressure off Melbourne (slightly). Perhaps the immigration flood will turn this way a little.

But I also can't help but to think that many of the "signs" that people are looking at here are actually being caused by other investors piling in. Prices rising caused by investors who then lure more investors.

I do agree with some observations - there are houses that are literally $200K cheaper because they're a few hundred metres down the road from the rich suburb or have a negative history.

You can live in Geelong West for absurd money or move three minutes down the road to Herne Hill for a fraction of the price.

I guess what I'm saying is be aware that you may be following investors who are following investors, all escaping Melbourne prices and pushing up Geelong with no real regard for fundamentals.

 

Emza, i sometimes reckon that the crime in Geelong's Northern areas is like Tony Abbott's 'Baddies vs baddies' scenario. Druggies attacking druggies, convoluted relations with various exes that see no hopers attacking the property and persons of other no hopers. But in saying that, i've lived here for 7 years and haven't really had any bad experience, apart from foolishly leaving my car unlocked and having a old walkie-walkie type radio that i had sitting on the floor of the car taken.

I am not an investor as such, but am someone who is going to be happy to live here until i leave horizontally. My contention is perhaps a bit like the smashed avocado type scenario. First home buyers ignoring the affordable options and choosing dearer, further-out places to establish themselves yet whingeing about high house prices. As far as disadvantage goes, if you are already working there's no disadvantage at all. My friend who lives in Thomson has crappy internet coverage as he's apparently at the 'end of the line'....just three K's from Geelong's CBD. My internet in Norlane West is fine, although we won't see the NBN for at least another 18 months. And jobs are nearby, heaps of large employers are within 10-15 minutes drive from Norlane or Corio, or for that matter anywhere else in Geelong.

It's something i will probably never understand i guess, the reticence of first home buyers to look to this area. Ironically i watched the auction of the place over the road from my house in late 2015, the 4-bedder sold at auction for $225K, and houses now in my street are hitting $300K. A tidy equity boost for them of at least $70K in 18 months, for buying in an affordable area. The disadvantage list includes many sort of 'repeat' scenarios, but as a homebuyer presumably one would be employed, and there's nothing stopping people living here from working in the jobs they already do. I regularly drive out towards Waurn Ponds as a mate i know who doesn't drive lives out that way, i much prefer getting around on my side of town.

Maybe i am like Principal Skinner in the Simpsons who protested about being out of touch, before saying, 'no, it's the children who are wrong'. But the stereotypes and generally constant bad-mouthing of the suburb i live in does rankle with me, and is not a true reflection of what life is like here if you area regular bloke who is a PPR around here. It's a fair bet that probably 75% of the crimes around here are done by 5% of the same crims time and again with our revolving door justice system. If one is outside that loop, you tend to not see it.

 

Hi Harry...Assuming you mean Hamlyn Heights and Bell Post Hill, well there's not too much to be concerned with in those areas. I would however eschew some of the houses in the lower lying areas along Ballarat Rd, McArthur St and a a few others that run along the Southern side of Ballarat Rd as if there's heavy rain there is often flash flooding that can inundate some of those houses. Water can pool in the lower areas opposite Grace McKellar, this article is one that tells how often this can hapen.

http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au...n/news-story/aff7d00cfdf904e2e04755461f7cd67a

Insofar as desirability of areas go, most of these suburbs are fine, no real pockets of social housing or anything, aside from some of the units in Chatham Close and other courts that run pretty much along the train line that runs across Anakie Rd. You're also reasonably close to amenities, at least by car, as shopping centres and other amenities like schools are nearby in both suburbs. Hamlyn Heights is probably a bit more expensive than Bell Post HIll, particularly if you look at the areas that are nearest to Geelong West or Manifold Heights.

 

Maybe 95% of the crime is 5% of the people... but the facts about poverty and disadvantage are solid and well-sourced.

People aren't p*ssing on Corio and Norlane for fun - you can go there and see the problems the areas have. See someone stabbed - Corio. See a home invasion - let me guess.

I do also know that one street can be different from another. And you cross the border to Bell Post Hill and it's not suddenly a miracle suburb because of a name change.

Those two suburbs are about the worst ones in Geelong. Saying that people are just whinging about house prices but ignoring those areas isn't right I think.

I know for a fact there are places real estate agents won't do their inspections on because of the tenants who live there. Those stories you see of the entire interior being destroyed and the owner is none the wiser until too late.

The people of Corio and Norlane need help. Poverty is a horror and there is a large drug problem there.

I don't think it's a good idea for investors to overlook this because house prices are so dirt cheap relatively. High risk may be high reward but it's also high risk of serious loss.

 

I can go there??..I live there!! Dunloe Avenue.

Fair call though, i agree there are some areas, particularly the DHS houses and commission areas where you'd prefer not to be living there next to some neighbors. I still reckon though that our legal system that just churns people who continually break the law back in and out of jail, or give corrections orders and community service that isn't performed and is otherwise simply absolved doesn't help at all. Hence Norlane and Corio do have a number of such people living here. And they go on continuing the same bad behaviors they have done all their lives. Much of that comes from how they grew up as kids, the influences on a child are manifest for future behaviors. Sadly though there's a myriad of issues here which are beyond the scope of this forum.

But these suburbs are not Robinson Crusoe either, there are suburbs in capital cities that are no better. I will admit Norlane was much better value when houses were gettable for under $200K than now where closer to $300K is required. From an investor's perspective you do want your asset to be in safe, reliable hands. But me banging on about the advantages this area offered is hopefully something that may see some first home buyers extracting their heads from the clouds and seeing other options, which of course if more FHB's buy here, the amenity of the suburb will rise. There's been plenty of undesirable suburbs elsewhere that have come good over time, i just want that for my area too.

 

The general "you" not the personal "you".

I don't entirely disagree with you. I saw a lovely place in North Geelong get sold for $355K recently and it's not far from what many people call a bad suburb. It's stupid that crossing an imaginary line suddenly cuts $200K off a price but hey, that's people!

I just see a lot of excitement about Geelong and I think sometimes people fit in their own description of what they think "bad" is... which may not match the "bad" there actually is. Crime stats aren't just made up because people want to have a go at Corio and Norlane.

Gentrification I think gets thrown around a bit like a magic word - like it is happening all the time and it's okay to buy in a terrible area because it'll come soon. But some places don't go up. They just stay as bad as they are for a looooong time.

 

ACA covering the ice epidemic in Geelong...

 

As usual Dave hits the nail on the head. Sure, Corio is a bit rough and ready but it's by no means a ghetto. The only 'ghetto' area of Corio is the area behind Beckley Park - which, as the first suburban area you see coming into Geelong, might be what people think of when they see burnt out cars and overgrown lawns.

I was working in Corio yesterday, interacting with plenty of Corio residents. All 'normal' people - hairdressers, newsagents, teachers etc - and importantly they treated me better than a lot of snobby city types do. I survived, and every time I work there I look forward to it.

And you know what? Say Corio is truly a super-dodgy hotbed of crime. Take a look at Frankston North. Similar housing stock to the commission parts of Corio (the private parts being much better), worse street layouts, harder to get to Melbourne CBD by road or rail, and you don't have the access to Geelong CBD or the Surf Coast either. Frankston North is worth twice as much as Corio, with IMO worse fundamentals, and people have still done incredibly well out of it.

 

Yep it does get pretty cold...

 

I think everyone's got a point. It's really a matter of what you are comfortable with. My broker asked me why i didn't consider Brisbane but buy in Newcastle in 2015. I'm glad I did and the growth has been phenomenal. Prior to that other investors were bagging Newcastle about economy and stigmas of certain suburbs. Had I listened to them I would be mad at myself now.

Others asked why I went into Geelong and not inner burba of Melbourne and my answer is value. But each to its own I reckon.

I have friends in Geelong and when I mentioned corio and norlane they were negative. That's fine and that's what they are not comfortable with. As long as you have an exit strategy and war chest I reckon it's fine.

If one looks at every aspect of a suburb and weigh the pros and cons, reason should override emotions. Property investment is not simple.

 

Thanks Dave...and yes, I meant Hamlyn "heights".

In terms of future prospects for long term (10+) CG in the surrounding suburbs, as someone on the ground, would you say these suburbs are among the more favourable?

 

I would disagree. I would say within 15 kms ring for houses (near public transport), 10kms ring for townhouses and 5kms ring (look at where the new metro stations will be) for apartments.

For houses 10-15kms from the city within 1km walk of a train station to me is where the good value is. Great large blocks with older houses that can be subdivided. Within 10kms you are looking at smaller unsubdividable blocks with often newer houses so you are paying a bit of a premium.

 

This is not apples to apples comparison.
Brisbane is in a different league than regional like Geelong and Wollongong.
Because of that, it's difficult to say.
..but.. At the end of the day, a decision has to be made.

 

I was looking at the VIC planning scheme today for Greater Geelong, and there is plan to develop an urban growth area at Armstrong Creek (http://planning-schemes.delwp.vic.gov.au/schemes/greatergeelong/ordinance/21_mss11_ggee.pdf), which can house 54k people with 22k dwellings. Now the population growth for Geelong until 2036 is forecast to be 320k - 240k = 80k. So approximately 26k will reside in other parts of the region, needing 10k new dwellings. So looks like there won't be shortage of supply in the near future?

 

Lets do the maths....to get 22k dwelling by 2036...it would mean that developers need to pump out 1220 blocks per year.....I can tell you despite all the rhetoric...they are not doing many....lucky to be doing about 800 per year....then there is the issue if building 1220 houses per year just in this corridor...

 

I'm close to buying a corner block in Norlane (worst name ever) for $280k. Room to build 2 at the back with street frontage. 1. What do ya all think of that? 2. What impact do you think the Vic Govt saying, 'There's $20k for ya and no stamp duty if you buy in Geelong' will have? Bit more demand for sub $600k properties?