VIC Geelong 2019

Yep...tell em they are dreamin' the market has turned...though you can still turn a slight profit on a good build but definitely down.

 

Was listening to Terry Ryder and he was saying the exact same thing. Sales are dropping and prices coming off now.

 

Yeah...the demand is there...but land prices need to come off about 10%. They have already adjusted in Melbourne about 10%....time for places like Lara. But demand for existing homes is going well.

If you can put a product in for 450k ...say 4x2x2 (4 brms...2 bth and 2 garage)....you will easily get about 520-550k as an end price. In most instances build costs are coming in at 495-520k so no profit in dem now.

 

Article posted in the Urban Developer on 17th May about the sale of the Ford site:

Developer Buys Ford Factory Sites

Text from the article:

Pelligra chairman Ross Pelligra said that he expects the first manufacturing tenants to take up space within the year. “Our intention with Fortek Geelong and Assembly Broadmeadows is the same — we are committed to ultimately delivering 4,000 to 5,000 jobs in the next 5-10 years.”
The developer said it will subdivide the sites and retrofit the more than 265,000sq m of factory floor to accommodate new manufacturing and innovative technology tenants.

It will definitely be an interesting development to track. With a land area of 100-hectares, Pelligra should be able to incorporate a range of new initiatives for housing / commercial / lifestyle. Would be a good result for the northern sector of Geelong

 

Fantastic news! ^^

Corio and Norlane still growing I believe despite the current downturn in the market. Been a bit spoiled for the previous 30% growth, so its a weird feeling.

Inb4 property is a long term game, because I sure will be holding it for a while.

 

Hi everyone. I've been looking for a PPOR in Geelong since the start of the year. I'm focused on character homes within about 1km of either of South or central Geelong station. My understanding on the market is it's been essentially stable, with a limited supply, however with so few houses for sale it makes it hard to get a handle on selling prices. For example 21 Roebuck st Newtown,w sold last week for $845k, was listed for 800-850k, but I was sure that it would exceed that at auction and get closer to 900k if not more considering prices at auctions in West Geelong. Are the quoted ranges more accurate at the moment, and paying above the range is a surprise?

 

Anything which is near the city with character and anything near the Ocean is still selling well.

New estates like Armstrong Creek are also doing well....the developers have really slowed land development....any land which does not settle is snapped up quickly.

 

Hello All, Long time lurker but first time poster.

I've found it informative following this thread and 2018 thread and 2018 thread and learnt a lot about the Geelong market and wanted to get some advice.

I'm due to settle on land in the Warralily Grange estate in Q3 this year and my personal circumstances have changed where my wife was going to go back to work so we thought we could afford to build and rent the place out but now we are expecting kids and this plans have changed. As I don't want to take on too much with new arrival on the way do you still think its worth setting and selling the land? Is there still demand for land or am I better of cutting my losses and losing the deposit?

Thanks for your responses.

 

Bad timing.

I'd be trying to sell it before settlement. Have you signed a build contract yet?

 

This is the bit i'm confused about as to how much demand there is. we paid $248K for a 448m2 block and similar blocks are being sold by the developer for $300K. So even if I settled and then list the block at cost (with the taxes) do you think it will sell or is it worth losing the 5% deposit and walking away?

No build contract signed yet luckily.

Thanks for the advice.

 

I think in the long run there will always be demand for land - especially from what I'm hearing they're slowing down the staged land release now in VIC too to be able to hike up the land price even further!

So the longer you can hold onto it I think the more value it'll become.

I guess with your situation, the other question is how much cash buffer have you got? Whether you can afford to hold onto it for a couple of months to wait for it to sell after land settles? If not then would it be better off to bite the bullet now and put it on market? This would be the more safer approach for you.

Cheers,
David

 

You're losing more than that if similar blocks are going for $300k. You're losing your deposit, plus the equity in your untitled block. Sounds like you're losing $60k plus.

The area is likely to do well. If it were me I would

1. Try to keep the block, build and rent out
2. Failing this as an option I would sell / assign the contract and hopefully break even after costs
3. Walk away

 

If I were you, I'd be eval'ing my situation to see if build and sell made sense. How much are new houses there selling for?

 

I guess i'm just trying to make my life uncomplicated as with twins on the way last thing I want to do is worry about land and money being tight. I could buy the land but not afford to build. I may have to put it on the market before it settles for the contract price.

 

I made a mistake the actual contract price is $266K. How reliable is the prices the developer is charging as they always put a premium on it?

Also if I could really stretch it and build. How is the rental market in Armstrong creek? Is it still in demand?

 

Based on what I have heard, AC market is still doing pretty well. @sash is the expert.

 

Not sure specifically about AC, but according to my PM there are still lots of rental demand across Geelong as people simply couldn't borrow to buy. They've been extremely busy for the first 6 months and it doesn't seem to be slowing down at all.

Cheers,
David

 

Demand for Geelong will remain strong, hold in our view. The cheap entry point and great lifestyle is attracting many from Melb, especially FHB's given the regional grant. The population of Geelong will go from 200,000 to almost 300,000 in the next 15 years according to our data and Terry Ryder, requiring approx 52,000 new homes. That's massive demand pressure on housing and will push prices higher. Hold for another 5-10 years. You should also be considering other prosperous towns in regional Vic such as Bendigo, Ballarat and Benalla offering similar returns and outlook.

 

AC market has plenty of rental demand, especially for 3 bedroom homes around the $450 p/w mark. We have many clients that have invested in AC and they are seeing great returns.

 

Think places like Norlane/Corio run has ended (a few months ago anyway) Time for that steady growth now.

How is everyone going in Geelong?