VIC Geelong 2018

@Knights of Ni @sash - I drove to corio before from south Melbourne around 50 minutes (so more less right on the money in terms of timings)

The only issue with corio is that I believe the council is pushing hard for it to change with all these RGZs but as house prices are within the 2s and 3s, it is going to be hard to justify "other developers coming in to develop and tear down as the profits are slimmer. To be honest, this is the same dilemma for "logan" suburbs.it will take time for this to occur - and the house prices I believe needs to be in the 4s before the townhouse devs work out to be viable. ppl need some buffer otherwise it doesn't stack up.

there are similar suburbs in melbourne where houses were 360K end of 2015 are now high 600kish.

 

I remember reading a post once where someone was arguing that no one from Melbourne would commute from Geelong. This was in relation to the Southern suburbs of Geelong and Torquay. At the time I argued that this was incorrect, that people do commute from these areas to Melbourne. Mostly for lifestyle reasons.

I can't see; however, anyone commuting from the northern suburbs of Geelong (Corio / Newtown). The area is not very nice and if your job is one worth keeping despite such a commute then surely it pays well enough to avoid those suburbs. Also, anyone who wanted affordable housing and was willing to commute to Melbourne would surely choose Lara over the northern suburbs of Geelong. I'm not sure that these suburbs will benefit directly from the commuter market in the same way Lara, Waurn Ponds, AC, the Bellarine, Surf Coast and inner Geelong would, despite them being closer than some suburbs.

 

I'm guessing you probably are referring to Norlane rather than Newtown..as the latter is one of Geelong's most prestigious suburbs, and a highly desired place to live. I did commute from Bell Park to Laverton/Sunshine/Werribee in the 90's, and found it took about 40-55 minutes as a rule, Laverton probably the easiest to get to as even in the 90's Werribee's traffic was quite congested especially that frustrating right hand turn off the long exit road to turn onto Werribee St bridge to get to Watton St...took ages sometimes!!

But you are right Beelzebub, just going by reading articles featuring homebuyers in those Southern suburbs, they regularly talk about the 'easy commute' of an hour or more from there to Melbourne, and seem to enjoy spending that time either by car or train each way to work. Not for me, but i guess the attraction of a new estate and being somewhat closer to the beaches is an attraction that appeals to many people.

In saying that, there's been some quite phenomenal prices in the Northern suburbs, such as 565 Thompson Rd selling for $420K in the last week or so, and this list of sales prices, which certainly probably indicate that bargains are thin on the ground now for investment purposes. But as a homebuyer here i am quite thrilled....32 Dunloe selling after a short campaign for $417K as featured in this list, i will say that 4's back when i started on here in 2015 were simply pipe dreams in the 3214 area back then.

Norlane, VIC 3214 Sold Property Prices & Auction Results - realestate.com.au

Just scroll through the listings on that link....for this homebuyer of Norlane it's very good reading!

Just a note too about townhouse builds..i can understand at those prices Norlane and Corio probably aren't going to deliver value, but Belmont is a different kettle of fish, there's numerous examples of new townhouses being built that people are cheerfully paying well over $500K or more to buy, it's quite amazing really but they do sell for fantastic prices as new places, even on the smaller 1/2 and even 1/3 sized lots.

Here is a link that shows several of these..

Townhouses For Sale in Belmont, VIC 3216 (Page 1) - realestate.com.au

 

You are correct Dave. Belmont and North Geelong are completely different to Corio and Norlane.

 

I guess it's just hard to convince some people of the potential of certain areas. You have to leave emotions out of it. Property prices have risen dramatically in these areas...from a very low starting point. You personally don't have to live there, but there are thousands who will, mostly out of necessity as their budgets dictate the locations they can afford. Either you are an investor willing to capitalise on an areas growth, or you're a bystander commenting on the sidelines. This is a property investor forum after all. Some get it. Some don't.

 

I am not sayin' price won't go up in Corio/Norlane...I reckon they will hit 400k this cycle...but as to whether development is a good idea - i.e. Townhouse...that is probably not a good idea.

Already areas like Armstrong Creek are heading towards 600k for a 4x2x2 ..with a potential to hit 700k...so no reason why 400k will not be the norm in Corio/Norlane...

 

Hey Sash, do you think market will be still strong in AC with all the new estates coming up? Prices are going crazy similar to Melbourne. I don`t have much experience on RE but still don`t get why people are buying a 4x2x2 for 600k in the middle of nowhere when they can get something on a bigger block closer to Geelong CC. Is that because they are attracted buy the new house and don`t want the hassle of renovation?

 

What are your guys thoughts on Hamlyn Heights? Seems to be doing really well with the rezoning. Think the growth over the last 24 months has been strong, how much more do you think it can push?

 

Mate, if you look at Newcomb on SQM you'll see that they made most of the past three years growth in the last 12 months. They've only just started and will likely to make it to $500k this cycle.

I can't say I'm too surprised by it, RGZ and a corner block close the shopping centre! I remember some guys who got ahold of a corner block for around $285k mid-2017 and I thought they did well!

I reckon Corio should break through the $400k resistance level and end up around 430-450k! It has more things going for it than Mount Druitt afterall! It's a matter of time when people starts seeing the value of buying an affordable house and still reach Melbourne within an hour (car or train)!

The option is still there otherwise you can relax in the train for ~50 mins! After missing just missing out on Newcomb for the price I still value for buying something with CG, I decided to hit Corio because of the amazing potential for buying a 600m2 house in a suburb with ~1.5% vacancy rate, close to the train station and within an hour from Melbourne , close to Vic's second international airport (Vic actually beat NSW in this regard and it's big news as Airasia is very popular with Asians!), close to the new tech/education hub of Werribee and of course Geelong CBD. It's basically a no-brainer for me.

Agreed that developers probably won't be in Corio anytime soon but there'll always be those people who got in early enough to make the numbers work by the time it's constructed and I know at least one in PC. Geelong is pretty different from the Logan area as a whole as they don't suffer from the same oversupply issues that it's currently facing and I don't believe the natural disasters affect it to the extent of Brisbane as much.

That may have been me. If I did say it then I do want to rephrase and say that it's their choice to live like that and waste so much time commuting. I really can't imagine people willing to do this over renting in Melbourne. I would had thought people would rentvest instead of doing the commute!

I was renting in Carlton when I worked there for $200/week and takes only 20 mins to get to work. I would not commute anyway for more than 1 hour, even in Sydney it takes me 40 mins door to door to reach my work and that's close to my limit. We are DINKs and pay only $350/week.

 

They are paying up to 750k for houses in Armstrong Creek.....it is not in the middle of nowhere it is on the edge of Geelong and very close to Torquay, Epworth, Deakin Uni, and the Ringrood.

Over the years people have kept tellin' me the same thing..now thw 170k 450sqm blocks are 275k plus in 2 years....that says it all.

 

Have driven past Armstrong creek. Plenty of things going for it as Sash notes but lots more land to be released yet on the Bellarine...

 

if you are doing a build for 250K and the price is 350K for a house how much margin do you realistically you have and how much would subdivided house sell off after taxes and gst?. The answer would be next to nothing. Personally, i don't think ppl do full on subdivision devs to make 50K, that is more for reno build or H&L for wait/growth. i have been an onwer builder before and have skim whatever it takes to skim to reduce price and to say the numbers work would be very slim.

Geelong is a great place - newcomb and places like that - corio not so great though it will take some years and it would good for the medium to long term due to the price entry points. for it to reach 430-450K, there are lot of other suburbs in melbourne that will need to move further away from that bracket before it moves into that . also 15 minutes drive from corio plus another 50 minutes on train. My comparison with logan is that is too much housing commission and still a lot for sale for that price bracket. there is no distinct competitive advantage over one block over the other. only diff is RGZ trumps the zoing codes in logan anyday.

 

DINKS is the key here I think. Your experiences may be leading to a misunderstanding of the commuter market. Very few single people would do a commute like that. Commuters are usually males who need to work in the CBD to remain on good incomes and are sacrificing time commuting for two reasons: lifestyle - they want the kids to grow up by the beach or in the country. 2 affordable housing - allows the wife to stay home or work less. They may be able to rent in the city, but families usually prefer to own.

 

Yes, Norlane, not Newtown.

By the way, I’m not yaying you shouldn’t invest in Norlane or Newcomb, or that they won’t grow. History is showing otherwise.

My point is more that any growth that is happening is not coming from owner occupiers from Melbourne who intend to live there and commute. Growth, I think, is derived from investor activity, high yields and probably most significantly, people being pushed out of places such as Geelong West, North Geelong etc.

 

I was curious about the Corio/ Norlane area's so 2 weekends ago I took a drive around the streets to get a feel for the neighborhoods and see what construction was being undertaken. I'm happy to be corrected by more knowledgeable members on PC but MY understanding is the following.

Corio;
- Quite a large expanse of area in Corio is zoned RGZ2, which provides for housing at increased densities in buildings up to and including four storey buildings (quoted from zoning schedule... however I would be surprised if council approved 4 stories!)
- The closer proximity to Corio central I found the 'best' maintained properties
- Better maintained houses on the west side of Bachus Marsh Rd, in the area between Purnell Rd and Cox Rd.
- Properties from Purnell Rd to Plantation Rd were still well maintained but some of the houses themselves weren't as well kept.
- Over the road to the East of Bachus Marsh Rd to Princess Hwy most properties looked like they needed some TLC.

Norlane:
- Predominately all zoned GRZ1
- A clear step up from Corio in terms of property presentation and maintenance.
- Could visually see new house constructions and developments being undertaken in most areas/streets
- The streets surrounding Donnybrook Rd were quite nicely maintained and the houses/properties were well looked after
- Block sizes are reasonable with my research indicating the average is between 550sqm and 650sqm, allowing for potential subdivision in allowed zoned areas
- Off the main roads (Princess Hwy and Thompson Rd) there looks to be 2/3 townhouse subdivisions occurring.

As indicated these are my thoughts, happy to hear from others and their views!

 

I'll buy you a drink on the day Newcomb makes it to $500k this cycle. Let's define "cycle" first.

 

Haha you're on! I'll have the Sapporo thanks

I believe Melbourne/Geelong has got at least another 1-1.5 years to run if I'm not mistaken? @sash Plenty of time to make another 100k for Newcomb! Surprisingly Corio is just $50k behind at this point and gone up another $10k since I posted that last SQM update!

 

My sentiments exactly...Newcomb is a much better suburb where locals will buy...I am gobsmacked by Corio....mostly out of towners.

As I said 500k will be norm in Newcomb within 2 years.

 

This result was a pleasant surprise for me in Whittington
26 Truscott Street, Whittington, Vic 3219 - Property Details

 

I'm gnashing a little that when i randomly told my boss about the old shack on the property at 65 Dunloe in late 2008 when the auction said starting from around the $90K mark, that i didn't see a similar Newcomb one at the time!

But am very happy since my Mum's there and i had been kind of wondering a bit compared to her sister in law who has a place in Rippleside which back in the 80's when purchased was not dissimilar in price to Newcomb at the time. The latter had risen to well over $600K a couple of years ago and Newcomb was still struggling to cross the $300K rubicon. But that paradox at the time of East Geelong being almost 2-2.5 times the price of Newcomb despite being only a few hundred metres further away from the same amenities has seen the latter's price start to reflect this reality.

A mate of mine's elderly mum lives on Boundary Rd Newcomb too, and i'm glad for her too that she's getting that windfall dividend of capital growth too. For my Mum, who is only early 70's, it may open up options for her particularly after the passing of Dad a year ago. She has a lot of life left to live.

Mind you, seeing these numbers up my street makes me feel better

24 Dunloe Avenue Norlane Vic 3214 - House for Sale #127674182 - realestate.com.au

Brendon....that's not too bad, a nice big block in the much better part of Whittington, and that house looks like a move-straight-in one. Whittington is certainly considered to be the poorer cousin of the 3219 postcode family, but mainly because of the stigma in the Solar Drive and some associated courts. Where yours is is quite close to the CBD....if you flip the suburb around to the West of Geelong that would be in maybe Manifold Heights or Herne Hill, where the medians are much more. And it's close to lots of amenities too.