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VIC Future prospects for Shepparton?

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by sonofthewest, 18th Sep, 2015.

  1. sonofthewest

    sonofthewest Active Member

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    I've just started taking a look at Shepparton as a possible place to buy an IP. Anyone recommend the town, or conversely would advise people to steer clear of it?
     
  2. Gim hwee lim

    Gim hwee lim Member

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    I have no investment property here in Shepparton. But I heard mostly negative remarks from people who bought here - they see very little capital gains for the houses they bought.

    It is not very near to Melbourne and does not see great population growth. Only possible plus point is it lies along the supposed "high speed train path". But god knows when this will be built, if it ever was done.

    There are better regional towns to invest in other than Shepparton I feel.
     
  3. jpcashflow

    jpcashflow Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Shepparton would not be an ideal place look... employment rate is heading up and I know a number of friends who used to live there say work is drying up!!!.

    Question you should be asking your self is why there in the first place?
     
  4. spider

    spider Member

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    I have been looking at Shepparton also, 2 hours from Melbourne and there are some cheap properties there. Health industry quiet large supporting the regional area. Not sure about future capital gain
     
  5. Beelzebub

    Beelzebub Well-Known Member

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    I'd stick to the three major regionals: Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo over Shep. Have a look at the underlying demographics of the three areas and my bet would be 1. Geelong 2. Ballarat. Both are growing reasonably fast and both, Geelong particularly, seem to be moving from a manufacturing to knowledge based work force which should see incomes rise.

    I wouldn't let the closure of Ford worry you too much
     
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  6. Ben Chifley

    Ben Chifley Well-Known Member

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    Have you been to central Geelong lately? Looks like the place is dying. I've never seen a Westfield that empty.
     
  7. Beelzebub

    Beelzebub Well-Known Member

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    A few things have happened here:
    1. There are now suburban shopping centres and decent services in the suburbs (Waurn Ponds in particular). This has led to less people travelling to Geelong's CBD (Think Melbourne in the 80s)
    2. You now have to pay for parking
    3. Westfield has destroyed strip mall shopping in the CBD, lots of empty shops
    4. The redevelopment of the foreshore has shifted the activity away from the traditional main drag of Ryrie St further South and closer to the beach

    The perfect storm has left the CBD in pretty bad shape. You wouldn't have wanted to own CIP there over the last decade. But that isn't indicative of what it happening in Geelong as a whole. Look at the CG trend for most of the Geelong suburbs over the last decade and it is at complete odds with the trending decline of the CBD over the same period.

    However, I believe the CBD has hit rock bottom and is on its way up. The increase in student numbers at the Deakin CBD campus, the expansion of Deakin Uni residences, the establishment of the headquarters of the NDIS, the expansion of Barwon Health and St John of God, the re-development of Barwon Water, the re-location of the Work Cover headquarters, the relatively recent re-location of the TAC and the setting up of offices for several law firms to follow the centralisation of the compulsory insurance industry in Geelong should all help re-vitalise the CBD and of course will be great for the Geelong as a whole.

    As will above national average population growth of 1.8%

    And potentially:
    The land 400 project
    Carbon manufacturing
    Incredibly marginal Federal and State electorates which would indicate future ongoing infrastructure spends in the region

    In any event, I'm not advocating investing in the Geelong CBD... I always like a land component.
     
    Last edited: 5th Oct, 2015
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  8. Ben Chifley

    Ben Chifley Well-Known Member

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    A friend of mine tried to talk me into investing in Newcastle a few years ago and the reasons were:
    • Beautiful beaches and established tourism industry
    • Vineyards, conference centres
    • Commuter belt into the capital with a frequent train service
    • Growing university campus
    • Major government offices relocating from the capital bringing hundreds of new employees
    • Space age industries to replace ailing/departing manufacturing
    In those days you could also add:
    • Booming coal industry supporting local economy
    Probably not now-days... But do you see my point. Replace 'Newcastle' with 'Geelong' (or Wollongong, Port Pirie...). It's the ten percent plus unemployment that doesn't gel with the headline rosy stories - better to stick to a capital city in my opinion.

    EDIT: I'm old enough to recall the devastation that Pyramid wrought on the town so perhaps that does tint my view of the place.
     
    Last edited: 5th Oct, 2015
  9. Beelzebub

    Beelzebub Well-Known Member

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    Geelong unemployment 6.1% national average 6.2%.

    But yes, you're right, you will get better long term capital growth in well located inner city suburbs of Melbourne. But this thread is really about where is best in regional Victoria and what might be a better alternative to Shep.
     
  10. Ben Chifley

    Ben Chifley Well-Known Member

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    Agreed, Melbourne is where it's at. Much higher cost of entry but it's where all the money and jobs are. And much less vulnerable to local fluctuations in the employment market.

    Also, the unemployment rate varies a lot according to who you listen to. Official ABS is around 6% but the Geelong Advertiser was reporting 10%+ in the last twelve months (different aggregations/areas?). And if you look at specific areas the rate can shoot up quite considerably ie Corio/Norlane up around the 20 percent mark as per this article:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-...ise-in-melbourne-middle-class-suburbs/6292976
     
  11. Beelzebub

    Beelzebub Well-Known Member

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    Yeh, but those areas are always going to have high unemployment. That said, cheap entry and high yields if that suits your strategy.

    I like suburbs in the South West arc from Waurn Ponds stopping at Herne Hill
     
  12. Gim hwee lim

    Gim hwee lim Member

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    Hi Bee,

    You mentioned Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo, in this order over Shepparton. Now supposing we give Geelong a miss, what's your view on the other two towns? What makes them "investment" possible? Why is Ballarat ahead of Bendigo? What about Albury? I heard it i
    s fast growing too.
     
  13. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    I think his point wasnt whether ballarat ahead of bendigo or geelong, just that those 3 way over SHepparton anytime,

    shep is far too volatile in my view,
    any investment would almost be a gamble or hope

    also unemployment for young people in the 3 suburbs ive been told is as high as 20%
     
  14. Brokerdan

    Brokerdan New Member

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    Further to the original question,
    As a local and in the industry Shepparton offers little capital growth but very high rental return. Capital growth has been poor, however is heating up just now- especially in the outlying towns where employment and disposable income are very healthy. Cobram, Tatura and Stanhope for example see 6%+ growth in value where returns are 7-10. The smart investers are purchasing at well below market price in the centre of town "ex-commission" houses. Purchases are $130k valuations are $165+ and returns are double didget... Close to the hospital has been popular.... We have a medical university and I'm afraid these properties last weeks before investors from Melboune etc snap them up.
    Buy shep north near hospital and schools.... Forget shepparton south. Good luck- dan shepparton finance brokers