NSW Future of Muswellbrooke

Whats everyones thoughts on the future of Muswellbrooke?

I currently have 1 IP in Mbrooke that is currently tenanted after fairly long periods of vacancy. My strategy is buy and hold so i don't have any plans to sell at this current point in time. But if my funds are better invested elsewhere it may be time to seriously consider packing up shop.

As we all know Mining has taken a massive hit in the last few years, is there any light at the end of the tunnel?

All thoughts and opinions welcome.

Cheers

 

A few murmurs on Somersoft mentioned a turnaround for poor old Muswellbrooke, but we are all yet to see it. I cannot see it turning around anytime soon (as in the next immediate 24 months), but possibly if resources demand comes back from key international trading countries into Aus; this could stimulate resources again, and see for rental house seekers returning back to the Muswellbrook area, perhaps?

A long shot, though :/

Medium term outlook could be different, if industry picks up as above.

 

I thought it is Muswellbrook, not Muswellbrooke.

Unless you are implying that it is MuswellBROKE.

 

Have a friend who build in the area and he had to reduce his rent and made losses in the area.

 

Possible good news this week. Light at the end of the tunnel anyone??

Dartbrook mine: work starts on re-opening

Department recommends Drayton South go ahead

 

It' a train coming towards you!

 

Haha yeah yeah I'm not expecting anything amazing to happen! Just hoping for a little bit more confidence in the market to offload a property. Would be happy to get back close to what I paid. Vacancy rate is down a bit and prices have plateaued so I think times are improving a little.

 

Mining has taken a hit but as in the past it will bounce back
The thing that would concern me is the future of coal? Is there anothe boom left for coal? Its a dirty word
You know iron ore, copper will bounce back but im not as bullish on coal

 

Im not a mining expert
But does mining always bounce back??

To me mining isnt something that follows a circular cycle

 

Iron ore will always be in demand
There was a shortage in supply, prices rose and there was a boom
Every man and his dog starts developing iron ore mines, now theres a surplus
Prices crash and mines start closing and supply falls, companies move on to the next big commodity
The under lying demand is still there and one day there will be a shortage and it all starts again

Same can be said for most commodities although some may fall out of the cycle if the become no longer useful
Im sure coal is still useful but its not a sure thing as renewables start to increase efficiencies

 

What about this example/scenario......
Which i believe is very common

Mining booms. Every man and his dog is building and buying. The mine either runs out of resources or the initial phase of workers have moved on.
There is nothing thats going to boom as the resoucr is either constant supply or running out.

Cant really see anything thats going to boom again its just going to be a slow and gradual death

 

If the reaources are alwats running out how can there be a constant supply?

Very few of the closed or reduced production mines over the past two years was because of resources running out. It was just the prices are too low
As soon as the prices go up again they will re open and new mines will be built

The population of the world grows at an exponential rate as will the need for resources

 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...e/news-story/2996265a7f8b7f67284faa42989261da

I have noticed coal prices have risen significantly over the past few months which is why I asked the question are we at the bottom and will there be any resurgence in the future. Interesting article above anyway.

 

Just an update for those that have been suffering the last few years! Had a chat to an agent in town I know fairly well. Also researching a lot myself. A few points:

- quarterly house sales have gone from 40ish last year to between 70-80 now (they were doing Around 100 during the mining boom)

- prices have increased very slightly (5%)
But he said what was more obvious was the increase in people at opens.

- 83 places currently for rent (down from near 200).

- mt pleasant mine due to start construction next year creating 150-200 jobs which he thinks will absorb most of the current vacancies.

- coal price has gone through the roof in the past couple of months but they are expecting a slight drop and then a stabilisation (but at a much higher level than the past few years) next year.

The overall feeling I got was that the bottom has been reached and there might be some slight gains next year (particularly with the rental market). Not saying there is money to be made but if you have been waiting to at least break even with what you paid a few years ago there might be light at the end of the tunnel.

Cheers

Dan

 

I personally don't like the future of thermal coal going forward, I think its far too risky of a bet that long term only has downsides.
Coking Coal is a completely different market.
Would really have to get in cheap and pay close attention.

 

Good stuff! Now if I were in your shoes I'd sell partway through construction phase.
Better to sell a tad early than to hold a bit too long is my opinion.

 

Thanks @Gockie good advice. Might be best to offload when the vacancy rate is tight and some more people moving into town. If I could get back what I paid and just lose $20k in stamp duty and selling costs I'd be stoked!

 

Good luck!

 

Cargo prices for Australian thermal coal from its Newcastle terminal, seen as the Asian benchmark, have soared over 35 per cent since mid-June to more than one-year highs of almost $US70 a tonne.

Higher coal price = more mines re-starting = more jobs = need more accomadation

 

Newcastle coal cargo price -25.4pc since November, don't back on higher coal prices lasting. Risky to bet against that.