First quarter inflation - 0% - Rate cut on the way

Sounds about right, this is especially typical of professional service industries. Early automation gains in the 80s and 90s went straight into better productivity, but much of the labour saved through technological gains of more recent years has been reallocated into bureaucratic uselessness (work for the sake of work). But I imagine productivity would still have increased reasonably since the early 90s and your clients do end up with a much better final product. And there will reach a point when the ability of A.I. and automation outpaces our inate human instinct to find extra work to do for the sake of it, and we will have another wave of stronger productivity gains across many industries.
Outsourcing is an intermediate measure that sees work that can almost but not quite get given to computers instead get outsourced to the next best thing (cheap overseas labour). Ultimately the gap between third world and western labour will close more and technology will allow even better automation such that it doesn't make sense to have the limited labour inputs to these services on the other side of the world speaking broken English. Well you'd hope so anyway.

 

You make a valid point but unfortunately what your referring to only really relates to professional services and secondly everything you mention is pre AI where we still heavily rely on humans to do our thinking.

Let’s break down those points.

Firstly the most disruption is going to start in lower end jobs. As I noted in a previous post, the automotive industry is nearing the brink of arguably its most critical point ever. Self driving vehicles already exist and do a better job than most people. However let’s be conservative and give the technology another 5 years to be accepted and 10 years to be the norm whereby you can order an Uber without a driver from your phone. You don’t have to think hard to understand how many people this will impact. It’s not like a taxi driver or truck driver can go do more work...

The next point is regarding professional services. I can’t argue that whilst a lot of our work has and continues to be made redundant that due to connectivity we are working more than ever. Work is simply in our hand, pocket or bedside table 100% of the time and for many they can’t escape it.
However this is because up until now we need humans brains to think like humans. Computers have never been able to do this kind of work but they are now rapidly starting to do this.

If we focus on even one industry (every single one is ripe for AI) that I work in which is recruitment. One of the biggest parts of any consultants job is candidate selection and as of now it’s still a very manual process. Consultants need to review every candidate resume (sometimes thousands), screen them, background check them, meet with them for cultural fits and so on.
I know that some companies are already working on AI to totally change this. Whereby a system will have such advanced algorithms that out of 1,000 applicants they could tell you exactly the top 5 based on all key indicators. These candidates would come fully background and reference checked and be the most suited based upon the required skill set and cultural fit.
Don’t think this is possible? Just Think about how much the internet knows about all of us.

 

Im going to be overly simplistic and say that reductions in employment from AI will be more than offset by the opportunities afforded by the ever increasing wealth of several billion people Africans and Asians

 

You will not order an Automated UBER in Australia within the next 10 years.
Im willing to put money on it.

Although agree totaly agree with all other points.


Even Elon musks lates chip will not give us full self driving and an automated cab fleet in Australia within 10 years.

 

Was working /studying 6/7 days than
Working 6 days per week now.

 

Tesla wont be around in 5 years let alone 10.

 

Yep, somebody might by the naming rights, that's about all that will be left. Existing car companies can make electric cars so much better and cheaper than Tesla.

 

Yep you are on. Let’s put $100 on it
The only reason it won’t be mainstream is purely bureaucratic and nothing to do with the technology.

I think it will exist but only in certain areas away from large numbers of pedestrians.

 

cheaper maybe, profitable?

Volkswagen to lose about $4700 on every electric ID hatch - report | CarAdvice

The magazine says Volkswagen expects to lose about €3000 ($4730) on every ID hatch sold, with profitability forecast to begin around 2025.

 

I’ll have a wager on that one as well.
Another $100 that Tesla will still be well and truly around in 5 years time?

 

They might get into record debt with funding to start their China factory , only to have no demand from a Chinese financial crisis and fold

Either that or just fold from loss of investor confidence. The model 3 base model is already no longer available as its too much of loss to make one and after the merger of solar city, all that extra debt and losses are continue to pile into Tesla's financials.

 

I will put down $1000. Tesla will be gone shortly.

The only thing that will save deceptive musk is spacex...as for tesla bye bye shareholders.

 

Done

 

There is a subtle difference between automation and true AI. For those of you interested, take the time to read this (incredibly scary) article. It’s long but worth it:

The Artificial Intelligence Revolution: Part 1 - Wait But Why

- Andrew

 

$1,000! Hang on you know something I don’t (outside of reading their horrid Q1 results haha).

TBH I’m not much of an expert in this area. I’m a big fan of Musk and just finished reading his book which goes into detail about how he has continually raised funds to keep his businesses alive. I think a lot of people actually just invest in Musk and rightly or wrongly have blind faith.

But no doubt he now has some proper competition from the big boys and this (along with other production issues) could see its demise.

But we need to be thankful for what they have done. Electric cars are the answer and Tesla pushed the industry to act.

 

I’m torn on Tesla reality is the leaf is the car that made it possible for the average person to own an EV(ownership still not cheap compare to ICE equivalent) and really should get more kudos. Tesla on the other hand has made an EV that has created desirability and excitement in the sector, no doubt many of the established manufacturers were inspired by Tesla’s sales success to release high end EVs of there own.

 

They had to released high end EV to compete as Tesla 's was taking away too much market share.

 

Such a great read! Thanks for Sharing.
I saw Raymond Kurzweil speak at a Telstra conference in Melbourne around 5 years ago and it blew my mind.
Of any speaker I’ve ever heard, nothing has stuck with me as much as that.

 

Would love to hear him speak!

 

Hearing and Reading this stuff makes you feel pretty insignificant. Not in a bad way, more how when you think about the universe.

The one thing I remember the most from his speech is he said we would eventually inhale nanabots through like an asthma puffer. They would then go through our bodies and eliminate any disease. He believes we are very close to gaining 1 year for every year we age. I don’t think that’s a stretch at all.
People thinking about getting their super at 65 should probably think again. Soon enough 65 will be the same as being a newborn. Haha