VIC First Property Purchase in VIC.

I'm no expert but from my understanding:

True capital gains (artificial gains happen in areas with lots of development as new houses fetch higher prices) come from an area and it's location becoming more valuable.

This can be because a school is improving, transport is improving, roads are improving, local shopping is improving, the area is gentrifying, the area is popular with new wealthy migrants, the area is affordable and next to an improving suburb (flow on).

Some areas also have a natural advantage that can potentiate their growth. Places with mountains, views, lakes, ocean, beaches, rivers. These areas naturally attract people and they provide rarity, they draw the improvement in an area. This is probably why the East in Melbourne does better than the West.

Also, think of capital growth like a pressure cooker. You have some good ingredients that make up the location but before you start making a stew (improving it) you need to put a lid on it. That means you don't want open land surrounding the area you are buying as once an area starts valuing that land will be developed and rapidly expand housing supply, which will cut down the organic growth.

Personally, I'd want growth to be an organic process, estates aren't organic imo, it's immediate gentrification which means that the data is skewed, there's no pattern to suggest that once these new houses start to decay that the residents will maintain them. If you go for estates then at least choose a solid but dated house (you can improve) in an estate that was expensive for the area at the time it was built.

 

Yes, I had driven thru number of streets in CS. This particular street I haven't, I was looking at this property yesterday the street view via google map, you will only see 2 houses in this street.
Google Maps

The location is not bad IMO.

 

Thanks so much again guys for your input. @The Y-man @VICPER @Zimplestiltskin @kermut @Westie

i feel so dumb that i didn't search for this forum before and seek advise from the experienced crowd.

While looking at Caroline spring i just came across this property. the land and house is pretty big, so going to have a look at it 3 pm today.
16 Illawarra Circuit, Taylors Hill VIC 3037 | Domain

Any thoughts on Taylor's Hill this is still very close to CS square an 10 mins drive to water gardens.

 

There are very good pockets in taylor's hills. When I first moved to victoria, I inspected the below property https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-vic-taylors+hill-131078322
This pocket is really good, if you drive around this street you will know what I mean.

I'm currently eyeing on this house, a stone away from SCG school https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-taylors+hill-134059566 however, the missus is not so keen. Time for me to get a new wife!

 

Williams landing might be a sleeper. New builds, looks pretty liveable and family friendly good mix of chinese and indian residents (the future rich listers). Traffic can be bad if trying to get on freeway but now its better due to covid.

Reason why i suggest is because there are alot of office blocks popping up. Target hq and state govt are new tenants. Few others on the way. Could result in a nice little west side hub minus the housos.

 

Both of the houses are way outta my budget. the one that I looked at today 16 Illawarra court is not really far from the first property you mentioned.
Agent is telling my they are expecting above 640 for that property, that's a bit too high for a 16 year old house that hasn't had any Reno done to it. lets see if some one actually puts in an offer. I am thinking 620 would be a great deal what do you think?

 

Hi

i was there last Saturday, the lower range was within my budget. since the vendor expecting 640k i am not going for it. let see.

Eric

 

It's not what I think, it's what the market thinks. Feel free to put your offer and see how you go.
You may want to check the sold history so that you can compare similar property sold prices.
https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/...?activeSort=solddate&includeSurrounding=false

Maybe check out Fraser Rise. https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-fraser+rise-134028954

 

Hi Erik,
i also dont feel its a property for the higher range. agent was under the impression that a lot of people looked at it hence it would be doing for the higher range.

 

Not sure if it's been mentioned but check out Burnside Heights as well. Around that price point and not full of deros like most other suburbs mentioned.

 

Haven't really looked at Burnside heights.
Noticed a sudden drop in listing activity.
Any one here a fan of martin north. All the data he is showing shows drop in prices coming everywhere however vendors in VIC are pretty firm atm.

 

I have listened to his videos a few times. Sounds like a smart guy but his data is high level, not forward looking and lacks consideration of behavioural economics and govt policies. You would probably want to get more asset and location specific as well.

As you have noted, vendors in tightly held are not dropping prices (yet). So who will capitulate first, the low ball buyer or seller? Demand vs supply..

And if you do sell, consideration needs also be given to where you plonk your money. Do you put it into shares/businesses (which according to talking heads are also overvalued) or bonds yielding less than inflation or in a bank and risk losing access in the event of a property crash induced bail in.
Those that also went bearish pre last election also would have copped it if they sold their ppor and need to get back in now.

So perhaps it can be argued that resi property in the right areas is the best way to store a large portion of your wealth moving forward especially if you dont have a PPOR. Makes sense as everyone needs a place to live despite what the economy does.

Further, I also came across an interesting thought of how the current game we are all in since the gfc favours the bulls. The analytical/prudent bears have all been wiped out and the bulls hold all the power and capital to continue the party!

 

I think it's pretty obvious and certain that Melbourne prices for most suburbs will drop. You gotta remember it's only going to get worse before it gets better once they scale back the government funding. In terms of how much the city will drop as a whole I'd probably say it's safe to assume we would be looking at a median price point of what we were at in June 2019 before the election. That's my prediction as a bottom out for a timeline of maybe this time next year/ end of next year assuming a vaccine is in full swing production by January 2021. Could be completely wrong, could be pretty correct that's just what I'm predicting.

 

I think Y-man the phrase you are looking for is what Jane Slack Smith and later others referred to as the ‘Ripple effect’ as price growth flows over to neighbouring suburbs.

 

Sorry For going MIA guys,
given the Covid circumstances really bummed out was never much of a stay at home person to begin with.
Restarted doing my research again

Can any one confirm if i am reading this correct? since Covid Vendors have been asking a 5% higher price? Doesn't seem logical to me haha.

 

Either that or more expensive houses are going up for sale vs the norm. Asking price for 3 bed houses and 2 bed units are relatively flat so I suggest the latter

 

Agents bumped the prices up because of all of the tire kickers asking for 15-30% discounts. Increasing the asking price makes people think that they're getting a better deal.

 

Reiterating some of the points that others have made around CS:

• Much better in terms of livability in comparison to the other suburbs you have mentioned. Or in fact I believe best value suburb if you are not driving to CBD everyday (My biased opinion).
• Stay away from the shoebox town houses and apartments if you need growth.
• There are micro markets in CS as well like any other suburb. Personally I would prefer within the range of 2-3kms from the CS Square
• For a combination of liveability + growth, my personal bet is on houses that are walking distance from CS Square and are in Kororoit Creek Primary School zone in Burnside Heights. There is a growing trend of people being desperate to get into that school. Which means when you want to rent it out later, there will be a demand for tenants. Also option to add value to some of the houses with average construction but decent land size
  • Check this one : https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-burnside+heights-134117054
    • Listed around mid 500s. Ripe for renovation - or to live in as it is for a few years with a fresh coat and then rent out. Very few houses in the school zone for rent at any given time

 

any one thinks this is a good deal? apparently wants 580k

https://www.realestate.com.au/property/5-willandra-loop-caroline-springs-vic-3023