VIC First Home Buyer - Where in SE Suburb?

Ohh, I've used microburbs, but since I was on my phone I didn't realise you could zoom in that mu

 

Ice is classier, right?

 

Could be a thing. Hire low-cost hoons in an area you're trying to buy into, increase crime rates up there, subdue property value increases, and then buy cheap(er)

 

I've viewed the website, and they seem to only show the top 5 suburbs. Doveton does not seem to be included in the top 5, so it's hard to tell because Doveton is such a small suburb, especially since they go by pure incidents, not in terms of proportion.

Is there any way to look at it specifically by postcode? Could someone enlighten me

 

I honestly don't see the appeal in those vehicles. They seem to be associated with a certain group of people, and they're loud, seem clunky, and frankly, don't look too good

 

What? Who's that down ramping the Commodore?

Look, it's not too bad with me, I can handle it, but I know a fella named Dagger who'd go to great lengths to get even if he found out about it.

 

Names Banned in Victoria

• • Commodore

Banned baby names in Australia - MamaMag


Aaahhh what's this world coming to?

 

Yeah, I've got a friend whose family lives in Hampton Park and they say that the infrastructure from HP to Berwick were poorly designed, resulting in traffic congestions as the Casey population boomed in the past 15 years. I'd think that with all the growth happening down in that corridor, many of these farmland roads will be expanded, especially since Narre Warren - Fountain Gate is a major Metropolitan Activity Centre. I suppose this depends on government budgets?

 

Clyde North has sparked a huge housing boom over the past half decade or so. It defies logic to me that people would choose to live out where little to no public infrastructure exists or is planned (aside from removal of level crossings there's nothing from the state govt to suggest anything is being planned to support the population growth). It frustrates me that there are pockets were I can't even get a reliable mobile phone signal - and I've tried all 3 major carriers.

Nevertheless, the boom in Clyde North is what's adding to horrendous traffic at Narre Warren and Berwick exits along the Monash Freeway and making peak hour travel undesireable.

 

My partner's family lives down there and yes, I have to agree that the reception there is real poor. Furthermore, their address doesn't even point to an accurate location on Google Maps! Anyways, the draw is obviously the cheaper land and newer homes, along with the promise that as more people move there, new things will pop up -- I think they opened up a new Bunnings there recently.

I do somewhat agree that the poor planning has led to a congestion along Clyde Road but were they not congested before? -- peak traffic is always bad when there's only one route to the major job activity centres (Dandenong, CBD, etc.)...

 

I'm unsure as I had moved into the Narre area myself only since 2016 (perhaps I'm part of the problem?!) I was residing in Mt Waverley prior, and throughout all my time in SE Melbourne there has always been roadworks taking place along the Monash Freeway. Even 12/14 lanes as there are in Dandenong/Sth Gippsland turnoff there is not enough to cope with the traffic volume!

The Bunnings in Clyde North has spaked a whole region of factories/industrial estate. There are mini shopping centres every 8 or so blocks in that vicinity. But they've bulldozed farmland and built up a concrete jungle and so far not many people have the yard space to plant trees or add any greenery to the area. The increase in ambient temperatures can be felt during the hotter summer days. When it's 36 degrees in Clyde North, it's 32-33 in nearly Cranbourne or Berwick.

 

Did you buy in the Narre (central) area? Do you drive to work via the Monash, city-bound? I believe they're looking to increase a lane in parts of the Monash freeway from Hallam and then also after Clyde Road.

From the population forecast statistics, Clyde North will be a major residential area. I'm sure the 'mini' shopping centres will expand and become little hubs within the next 10 years. More Woolies and Coles will be set up too. Yeah, at the moment, the estate developers are trying to make each estate as green as possible by including some parks and the like. It feels too 'concrete suburbia' without some pristine natural bush, trails, or park that actually house birds and animals...

Are you looking to stay in Casey long-term? What do you think the outlook will be? I know the council has got many works planned to develop the area and who knows, in 10 years time it'd be pretty established with a big part of the Melbourne population living in the City of Greater Dandenong and City of Casey corridor. That said, while there's a surge (demand) of people moving that way, there's also a lot of houses being build (supply). In this respect, even as it becomes established, house prices may not increase quite as significantly as one hopes. This may be true also because the people who move down there are generally first-home buyers or those from lower SES, hence they'd rather pay 600k at Clyde than 700k somewhere more central to train stations like Narre Warren or Berwick. Also, bear in mind that the population increase in places like NW and Berwick aren't actually that high: Population summary | City of Casey | Population forecast. It's mostly places where new development is happening that is boosting Casey's population.

 

I'm in Narre south. Close to the infamously congested Thompsons Road. Actually, closer still to Glasscocks Rd that's currently being expanded and joined up to form 1 road of the same name - not fragments of disjointed roads all bearing the same name. Anyway, if you're familiar with the area from Casey Central shopping centre westwards to South Gippsland Hwy and onto Western Port Highway. Once that's fully constructed I think the road cutting through these once idyllic and quiet neighbourhoods will turn it into a major thoroughfare.

Bought in 2016, and in 2018. In the established areas, not the new developments (Narre Warren South close to Casey Central as previously stated and in the Berwick Chase estate - not far from Eden Rise shopping centre), roughly ~10 year old houses. Absolutely kicking myself for not considering Officer when it was half farmland and 3/4 bed houses could be had in the $400k-500k range. Being from Sydney, I had my Sydney spectacles on - and overemphasised the distance to CBD not yet realising that metro Melbourne is a lot more decentralised and I had mentally carried over factors I thought mattered because I was more versed in Sydney's RE market.

The talks of an airport to come at Koo Wee Rup poses interesting speculative factors as to what growth to expect in the outer south east fringe of metro Melbourne. The growth of housing around Officer and Pakenham areas is of interest to me. Right now, I'm valuing - perhaps incorrectly, proximity to the freeway (and public transport/train lines). Which is why I'm not terribly keen on Clyde North.

I had in recent past considered areas surrounding Avalon Airport - eyeing areas from Lara to Norlane, and other parts along Geelong's outer northern fringes; back before Covid hit. There are still IMHO under-developed tracts of land in the west of Melbourne, however the developed/established estates of Point Cook and its associated peak hour traffic chaos suggests the road infrastructure is not coping with the population volume growth. If post-Covid leads to cheaper inner city apartments I may jump on the opportunity to get something in the traditional "blue chip" suburbs in the fancy hipster areas just north of the CBD (Brunswick, Fitzroy, etc).

But for now I'm back in NSW, and I think officially or unofficially my PPOR will be NSW at least for this year. I have an electric hybrid car and the Vic govt offers registration concessions for this vehicle type, NSW does not - so I'm at least on paper living in Vic...

 

Ah yeah, Thompson Road is indeed congested and will probably become even busier. Hopefully the infrastructure development can keep up. Officer has grown incredibly, probably because it has a train line. I work in Berwick btw and have co-workers who have bought in Officer. They tell me that it's going to continue to grow.

Personally, I haven't yet bought my first property but I'm looking specifically to get a place close to Narre Warren station (as a PPOR for now while I work in Berwick, but possibly as an investment later down the road). My logic is that the Fountain Gate commercial area will only continue to grow while the station/NW village is due for an upgrade. It also happens to be near two major roads, the Princes Highway and the Monash M1 Freeway. While NW ticks the boxes for transport and shopping, infrastructure is potentially a problem. Furthermore, I have checked .ID for population forecasts and NW and NWS are predicted to have little population growth. Casey will have one of the largest population growth across Melbourne, but much of it will be concentrated on 'new' suburbs being developed, such as Clyde, Junction Village, etc. I know NW and NWS are unlikely to have many more residential development (hence limited supply) but I'm not sure if there will be a high demand for houses in that area either -- especially when you can get, like you said, Officer for cheaper.

 

If you are looking at NW for your PPOR, I would advise against the Alira estate - Golf Links Rd/Centre Rd areas (maybe this is on Berwick's side of the border I don't know where they draw the distinction precisely). Back in '16 when I was researching the area I came across info that suggests that new estate is built on land that's subject to flooding. I can attest annecdotally that during periods of heavy rains there's insufficient drainage and makes the ground in the area feel like a swamp.

The suburb of Officer is interesting to me, I find that the properties north of Princes Hwy, up on the hills and potentially with a view or outlook over the local terrain to be distinctly more desireable longer term than those built on repurposed farmland - flat, cookie cutter McMansions, featureless and otherwise non-descript. I draw many similarities of this suburb to Kellyville in Sydney's north west 'Hills District' - which has become somewhat of a nationwide poster child for urban expansion. The good and the bad aspects. There will come a time in the not too distant future when the suburb splits into 2 - as with Kellyville, it expanded to spread across 2 local council areas, splintered off into Kellyville and Kellyvillde Ridge, with the latter at the time copping a ~$50k hit to property prices for being administered by the less desireable council. I can foresee Officer going a similar route - even though it's wholly within Cardinia council area, there's a notable division of demographics amongst various parts/areas clumped together under the same suburb name "Officer".

Lastly, if you're ever craving a nutritionally dirty kebab meal drop by Lauderdale Rd, next door to the NW police station, outside the tenpin bowling place there's a food truck that does good value HSPs and kebabs. Family run, genuine Turks, as they would proudly point out, it's culturally their people's food but increasingly in the local area kebabs have become and addition just as a business decision to the local takeaway food shops - that don't honour the authenticity of taste of the kebab meats and sauces. I don't have to be drunk to enjoy their kebabs, if it's any testament.

 

I have started to look in Doveton as well. There is some value there. How did you go buying there?

 

Craig, anyone dissing Doveton has no clue... Springvale used to be heroin central, house prices went from 75K in 1994 to over 1 million by 2010 Doveton is a changing suburb, while there is a few pockets that anyone would want to avoid, you don't see Ice addicts everywhere, I've seen more addicts at the Narre warren shops than at the Doveton shops, in Doveton every second house is pretty much either being renovated or bulldozed with beautiful large homes getting built, you know why? because people see the potential, nice views from the top if the little hills, close to everything & when investors move in, addicts move out, it's getting expensive to live in Doveton, so maybe go for a drive and get an update in the area, I'm trying to get a second house and my plan is to do it in Doveton, because Doveton will double in price very very quickly...