Falling prices in Sydney.. Really??

how long to wait for #PPOR

I keep reading in blogs, newspapers and media that the Sydney house prices are falling, 10% down etc etc. But when you are trying to buy a home for your main PPOR, can you really buy with a reduced price in this market? Or you have to compromise a decent house for a cheaper house so tell others that "'see I got this house for 20k less than asking price, it made me a winner''!!

From the beginning of 2018 started to look for a decent block of land in Macarthur Heights, Campbelltown to build our family home. We chose that area because of the work location and family commitments (I work in CBD and missus works in Bowral, so Campbelltown is a good midpoint for both of us, good access to hume highway) and because we love the area. But where is the reduced price? Most of the decent large/corner blocks are similar or higher priced than early 2018. We also looked at some established houses in Mount Annan. Again for decent houses, there is no price reduction. So what do people mean by prices are falling? prices may have not risen anymore in 2018 but I am not so sure about falling prices.

Yes there may have been a quite a few houses or empty blocks of lands which are there in the market for months and months, wired positioning land or house with malfunctioning floorplan. Even if they give me 30% reduction, I don't want to spend my next 30 years in those houses. I think I will wait for another whole year to see where the land prices go, they are not going to go up for sure. But will they ever go down from where they are now?!!? My missus doubts that the prices may get 10K down by the end of this year but the nicely positioned blocks with a view will be gone and our age clock will keep ticking as well!!

 

I would say look a little further afield. There are definitely places within 10-15 minutes which have taken a hit. Macarthur Heights is quite unique as it gives access to the train as well as the Hume, I guess that's why it's of particular interest, and maybe this is keeping prices up. There are so many land releases around Campbelltown / Camden / Wollondilly LGAs I can't imagine you couldn't find a good deal if look a little further afield. If you particularly want land what about the new release at Menangle Park? There will be some with a nice outlook for sure & by getting in early you might get the pick & a good deal. It'll only be a few minutes drive to Macarthur Station & the M31 to head south. And if it's for your PPOR & you're going to be there for the next 10 years does the $10K you might save really matter, particularly if you're renting in the mean time.

 

So you are mad that the premium blocks go for a solid price where b grade listings are the only one with discounts.

Hot tip. That’s how it works. If you want a good price pick one with a negative you can accept.

I’m looking for a PPOR now. I can tell you that the top 10% of houses in each area still hold up much better than the other 90%. They get dragged down in price much slower than a compromised place as generally more than one person wants them.

No point being frustrated that they won’t sell you a house at the price you want.

 

Io cliff this year and next, be patient, its only just started, property does not fall as fast as stocks. Make ur offer when u see dem developers cutting prices on land releases, by then you know they are desperate, no point buying now and have prices drop 20% or more by end 2019.

And really consider a semi new property like 5 or 6 years old. Unlike developers being able to sit on their land prices, individual sellers are easier to negotiate price drops, especially if they need to sell quickly to fund their next ppor or having divorce, moving intetstate or job loss etc....

 

I feel there is a lot of pent up demand for PPOR and there are many like yourself being more discerning. Pay the premium and put it behind you or hedge the frustration against a possible drop.

If a block has special qualities then the premium will always be there. Depends what you're looking at. Is a good block in a current land release distinguished from a good block in a land release next year?

The most consistent advice I've been given: "It's a good deal if you can afford it" .

 

There might be a "lag".

When Darwin crashed the market moved overnight but it took sellers a couple of years to get the memo.

Someone far more knowledgeable than I might be able to let you know if Sydney works the same way.

I remember being even more frustrated than you are realising that we were going to have to sign another 12 month lease while we waited.....very annoying!

That being said I am forever grateful that we waited.

 

Similar or higher asking price, or are they selling for those prices? I have been looking a little longer than you but in different areas and I agree, still shake my head in disbelief that someone bids as high as they do in the current market. I am taking a patient approach. I think there is still more downward movement to come so will be waiting for another six months.

 

When the media headlines say "Sydney median price fall of 10%" it means a fall of 20% in one location and nothing in another. It means generally 5% falls balanced out by 20% in a couple of suburbs that were fever-pitch over-priced.

 

That is exactly what it means

 

Saw somewhere that APRA reduced regulations regarding IO only loans. Do youbreally think IO cliff is going to have much impact?

 

Exactly! For example Mt Annan’s median house price has gone up by +0.67% over the last 12 months. Campbelltown has fallen though but only by -5.38% over the same period.

That’s why media reports of Sydney falling 10% are not a lot of use to someone wanting to transact.

Just buy when you’re ready and you’ve found the right property.

 

Are Sydney land prices falling?

 

If your seller has the holding capacity, to keep asking HIS price, that block is going to buck the downward trend, which is predicted over the next 3 years atleast.

Demand and Supply in Sydney suggests:

Demand is falling with lesser people qualifying for higher loan amounts as they used to.

Supply side is increasing with more and more people not able to afford a P&I Loans no more.

So the median is dropping, but maybe not for your Block, which you have your eyes on!

 

Which part of Sydney?

 

Yup read the other threads on this forum and u will know why...

 

Your having a crack....right ?

I suppose you could take the view that houses are going down, not so much the land, or vice versa.

 

Memos have been banned in Sydney, if you ignore the reality long enough you can create your own

I know renters freaking out cause Syd LLs are trying to sell, they wont drop ask, so no need to move, cause it is gonna sit and sit and sit See, no memos....

 

Sydney Land Prices Fall for the First Time in Two Years

Yeah , I was wondering if/how much undeveloped land had fallen.

Last week? Our local paper had said land prices had increased 16% in the last year

Blue Mountains land values jump by 16.6 per cent

 

If there's one certainty in life, its that land taxes will continue to increase no matter what the market does

 

If you really think the banks and government are going to just sit back and watch this "IO armageddon happen and just sit back and watch while it does" I think you will be disappointed if that's what people are waiting for to purchase a property at a massive discount