International Even Warren Buffett lost his edge 20 years ago (Ashley Owen)

Even Warren Buffett lost his edge 20 years ago

 

Buffet has been great more so in the past, but in my mind Bogle was magnificent in the past and will continue to be in the present and the future!

 

It's self selecting. We never hear about the fund managers who failed early on in their careers because they failed! We only hear about the successful ones and their early success is just a function of a normal distribution - there will always be some who out perform because they backed the right horses. But even they will fall prey to the same normal distribution if they keep playing the game often enough.

There will only be very few who are fortunate enough to succeed repeatedly because, if there is a 20% chance of big success at the roulette table, the statistics mean that only 1% will be consecutive big winners from 3 rounds of roulette. These are the name that everyone remembers - not the names of the 99 others who were behind them.

 

Yep. If fund a doubles in value in year one, and fund b halves in value, and they perform equally over the next 50 years, fund a will have 4 times more growth because of 9ne lucky year.

 

I think that article must be a comedy sketch.
Comparing the firt 50ys of WB with 5-10yrs of other funds?

And coming from a guy who calls himself "chief investment officer" who's funds 5yr return is less than half of BRK.
Only in a world where investors accept such dismal returns compared to the index can such people make money.

Here's another funny one liner
“The traditional ‘buy & hold’, ‘set & forget’ theory can leave you behind for decades in the real world.”

Wazza was right when he said people with no clue should just buy (hold set& forget) the index.

 

If this is not proof of generating alpha I don't know what is.



Buffett's Apple investment in 2016 of $36 billion is now worth $170 billion.

Biggest challenge is opportunity set available to him to move the needle. If he could find opportunities to invest $10s of billions he could still handsomely beat the S&P500 I have no doubts. He would do it without taking undue risks of losing capital unlike some other fund managers do to generate outsized returns.

Remember, since 2008-09 (except the COVID 2020 flash crash) we haven't had a meaningful prolong drawdown and most importantly growth has been on a tear since then. I would be perfectly happy if Berkshire matched S&P500 during such a period because with around $140billion cash pile growing by the day I know Buffett's time to outshine will come when the tide finally turns.

Cheers,
Oracle

 

But I was told stock markets can only ever go up, and can only go up.

 

When there is population growth, inflation, productivity growth with good corporate governance the above statement is mostly true over the long term 15+ years.

I would bet on human ingenuity to continue to strive for better future by finding problems to many of the worlds problems.

Cheers
Oracle.

 

And unconstrained money supply...

 

I look at the news and sometimes wonder

 

You are looking at the wrong news channels. They are only interested in bad news stories as they want to get more and more people worried and hence keep talking and watching the news which is good of their bottom line.

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

Warren Buffett will receive over $6 billion in dividends this year

 

Yesterday it was reported Musk made his insane offer to buy X to stop one person tracking his jet. He was able to then block the user. That person now tracks Taylor Swifts jets. Swifts lawyers issued a cease and desist stalking request earlier this week. And she sold one jet - Yeah it konda looks bad when you use it to watch a football game and criss cross the globe doing that. Meanwhile in Israel / Palestine / Ukraine and the state of indigenous community health and education....

Tell me how did all this change our lives ??

 

Who is this Owen Person talking about our Uncle Warren like that?
Blasphemy!

Looking at his OTT graphs, he's like a kindergarten kiddo who was let loose in a crayon store.

Anyway, waiting for Berkshire's earnings release today . . .

In the meantime, maybe this Owen Person can take a look outside the window.

 

Buffet still has outstanding performance given the weight of money he has to invest. He is very limited where he can invest . He could move markets too high just by volume. He has to exclude high growth small cap companies. Even some small cap boutique fund cap funds at $250m because of the weight of money.