Don't Buy Property in 2019

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by MTR, 23rd Dec, 2018.

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  1. gary176

    gary176 Well-Known Member

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    With all due respect to you John Comino and your profession (Buyer's Agent), now is not the time to buy. Full Stop.

    The prices even in an optimistic scenario will be flat...so why don't we save more upfront....
     
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  2. Bill Williamson

    Bill Williamson Well-Known Member

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  3. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    That is good news because the faster prices fall, the sooner the market will hit its bottom :eek:.

    Once that happens, we can all start making positive posts again :D.

    I can summarise my investment decisions (over the last 40 years) in a few Yes/No questions:
    1. Did I ever buy at the bottom of the market? No
    2. Did I ever buy at the top of the market? No
    3. Did I ever sell at the bottom of the market? No
    4. Did I ever sell at the top of the market? No
    5. Have I always made money on every property? Yes
    6. Did I know what I was doing? No
    7. Could I have done better? Yes (looking at history with a rear-view mirror)
    Enjoy the journey everyone!!!
     
    Last edited: 1st Feb, 2019
  4. Herbert

    Herbert Well-Known Member

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    He seems to be saying a further 15% down this year, but he also is reckoned to be a bit conservative by some.

    As for gold, what are you saying? a better bet than property?

    Regarding currency, that is what your debt is in.
     
  5. Jana

    Jana Well-Known Member

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    If u wanna buy for grand fathering benefit, I don’t get why do you need to catch falling knife? You can still catch other places with some bull potential. Brissie or Adelaide.
     
  6. Bill Williamson

    Bill Williamson Well-Known Member

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    Don't know much about Brisbane but Adelaide's got nothing going for it. Little to no population growth but drive down almost any street and you'll see plenty of knock downs / subdivides adding to supply.
     
  7. Triton

    Triton Well-Known Member

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    Did u ever see prices fall while interest rates were at all time low and employment was full? What triggered the previous bounces from corrections? Lowering interest rates? Favourable tax changes? Increasing immigration?
    Any of these on the horizon?
     
  8. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    No idea.

    I always bought and sold property when I wanted/had to.

    I am a very simple bloke. There are too many complicated people on PC for me :D.
     
  9. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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  10. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent Business Member

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    I was saying watch gold as a proxy for coordinated currency debasement. Gold is a useful hedge against central banking shenanigans, and it is counter-cyclical to most other asset classes, like property and shares. Yes, I think that gold will outperform property in the next year or two, but it's a very small market. Property is still the main game in town.
     
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  11. Jana

    Jana Well-Known Member

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    I know Brissie well, it might stay flat or go up despite Sydney’s condition. Adelaide is popular topic for few guys on the forum, even read in news it is going up. Don’t have much to share about Adelaide though.
     
  12. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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  13. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    Last edited: 1st Feb, 2019
  14. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Reckon more to come as herd comes back from school holidays and discover market has deteriorated even further.

    If anything perth would be the place to be, after brazilian drama, iron ore prices are shooting through the roof, kaching!! for perth and gina. Woulda thought some big miner from downunder paid off some mercenaries to sabotage the dams..
     
  15. Noobieboy

    Noobieboy Well-Known Member

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    Not just one dam. Vale are suspending all sites with similar dams. 20 of them from memory. Might be a short term boon for BHP and RIO
     
  16. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    In reality, if one doesn’t have a plan to get out, they should NOT have gotten in :).
     
  17. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    We can live in hope that Perth will take off, still not seeing it.... perhaps 2020??? I am watching
     
  18. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

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    @Jana thats not what I said. I never said I wanted to (nor did I say anyone SHOULD) be buying solely for grandfathered NG benefits. Rather, if you are a long-term buy and hold investor, then buying in the current depressed market presents great opportunities:

    1) quality assets at a discount
    2) interest rates still low low low meaning you can lock in low rate deals for a few years
    3) yes, NG will be AVAILABLE to you to help you out in those tough years #1-#5 pf that long term hold period mentioned above
    4) tonnes of (mostly garbage) new builds coming onto capital city markets this year. Avoid those like the plague BUT their launch to market means the good quality ESTABLISHED units that aren't Opal Tower-style crap, are affordable and accessible

    I think in 3 years from now those who were brave enough to buy (and buy WELL) Syd/Mel will look back and not regret their decision to do so.
     
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  19. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Does anyone believe property in Sydney on Melbourne is going to be more expensive a year from now? Two years? What will provide that capital growth? Higher wages? Bigger loans? Increased equity from previous purchases? Low skilled/part time work (cause that's the only kind increasing) ? The switch to a labor government? You don't need a crystal ball.

    Even for a PPOR, who likes throwing away money?

    Melbourne fell 1.7% on average last month. On a nice ppor, which will set you back 1mil + that’s 17k...

    Sydney fell 4.5% on average for the quarter, a nice ppor is over 1m, but even at 1m... that's 45k for the quarter.

    That is how much you've saved by sitting it out 1-3 months and buying later. Declines are gathering pace. Easy money.
     
    Last edited: 2nd Feb, 2019
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  20. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    I dont think the context of easy money quite applies here.

    You just pay less, not get some for free