Dangers of Stats? Suburb Crime Rates

Good to see that Mt Druitt ain’t the worse.

 

The issue with crime stats, it doesn't reflect the seriousness of the offences.

Where there is public events, stats will go up for alcohol related minor disorderly type offences.

And then the city area, shop lifting type offences.

If there is a way to filter offence types i.e. burglary type or assaults and then compare, maybe better value?

 

They also don't factor in out of town burglaries I don't think.

For example, I double millionaires are out there stealing from other millionaires in Toorak.

 

on the other hand, i doubt that it would matter to the person whose property has been broken into, whether it's done by a local millionaire or by some outsider

 

not sure about other states, but queensland has an online map where you can filter by type of crime, time period, etc

Online Crime Map

 

Overall does it rank each state. I once read that the safest state or territory was the ACT with Denman Prospect ( Molongo) be the safest suburb and the most dangerous was the NT.
My parents once did a trip from Sydney to Canberra with the thought of moving to Canberra due to its cool climate and the Mountains nearby but decided against Canberra because of its legal status on possession and consumption of bad drugs. Things seem to be legal there that are not elsewhere. So my parents didn’t want us kids growing up in that environment. The other thing with Canberra Suburbs is that you can have a suburb that can be good and bad depending on which part you were in such as Kambah.

 

Btw some media sources are suggesting that Brisbane and GC is getting worse in the crime metrics due to intrastate migration from the southern states and Brisbane struggling to handle the population growth. Is this the case and is Adelaide a more civilised place or not ?

 

what are they comparing to?

Queensland Crime Statistics - Queensland Police News

looks like the trend for the increase started mid 2019 or so, then there was a sharp decline while everyone was sitting home during covid, and now it's back up.

but all this is pretty low rates anyway, compared to other countries.

 

As a person who runs another crime map website I think that this ranking is somewhat mis-represented. I even know why because I experienced same problem.

Dandenong South (Vic) is a suburb with very low population (125 by 2021 census), but it has a lot of shops (shoplifting) and Vic Roads office (crime from other areas reported here), which means a LOT more reported crime that has no any relation to local population and that skews statistics when compared to genuine statistics from other suburbs.

Here is the profile - Crime rate in Dandenong South

If to believe "raw numbers" every 2nd person should get physically assaulted there, but that is not the case for sure.

This is why I actually identify such low-pop/high-crime suburbs and give them maximum rank cap so they don't make other suburbs look better. Usually they include a lot of shops, road related gov offices, police stations and hospitals where crimes are reported in bulk by police and don't really belong to location.

 

I thought this was a beauty with a $2M median.

 

View attachment 67140

Jacana actually comes out pretty low relative to the population!

 

they're from June 2022, 8 months out of Melbourne's last lock down. I'd be interested to see them updated to June 2023.

 

On checking, Docklands, to my surprise, scores a mere 5. The Age reported on Saturday that Brunswick was no longer the gangsters suburb of choice: "Criminals concerned about safety but still keen to flaunt their rising wealth and power are attracted to luxury apartments in Docklands and Southbank, where secure underground car parks and extensive CCTV systems are standard features." When I lived at Vic Point we had someone shot dead in the car park in a contract killing.

Crime stats and safety aren't the same thing though. Drug possession and domestic violence are both obviously bad, but they can be rife in the area where you live and not affect you. Burglary and car breaking are another matter.

In my current high-rise we have had car park thefts even though it's secure. Now the rule is that you drive past the entrance gate and then stop until it's closed so as to stop follow throughs.

 

What is the origin of these stats?

 

Yeah seems like terribly flawed data.
In Vic , you can get the official numbers from Homepage | Crime Statistics Agency Victoria but they are not by suburb, they are by local government area like Hume, Melbourne...

 

another thing to keep in mind about the crime stats, is that one incident quite often can result in multiple crimes/charges being recorded. so this can skew the stats a lot, depending on what type of incidents is prevalent.

for example, a single incident of burglary of property with multiple people residing in it could result in charges of burglary, multiple assaults, weapons charges, drug charges and so on which would all show up as separate crimes in the stats (at least on that online QLD map).