Crypto Crypto News 2021

I'm afraid the point of how the example pertains to a typical equities/bonds portfolio vs crypto is lost on me.

1) Equities don't return 5% a year either. S&P 500 has done +/- 30% annual in the past 15 years
2021 13.23
2020 18.40
2019 31.49
2018 -4.38
2017 21.83
2016 11.96
2015 1.38
2014 13.69
2013 32.39
2012 16.00
2011 2.11
2010 15.06
2009 26.46
2008 -37.00
2007 5.49

2) Crypto downside is much lower than -10%

3) Example completely ignores the sequence of returns risk eg -10 -10 -10 +30 +30 +30

 

1) It's a theoretical example on a single bet, e.g. one allocation to one fund/share, it's not meant to match a real index it's just theory.

2) It's not crypto specifically, it's just an example. But if it was crypto then yes definitely loss potential is more than 10%, same with upside being more than 30%. For a crypto project instead of +30% / -10% it would be more like +10,000%/-100%, so some small chance to get 10,000% return, and some small chance to lose everything.

3) It's not ignored, it's included in the simulation. See the line of code that does rd.randint - it randomly chooses between the positive or negative return. He's running a simulation 100,000 times to see that many combinations of possibilities. See this part of the thread: https://twitter.com/AlamedaTrabucco/status/1402786817011683328?s=20

To summarise results after 100,000 simulations:
-83% of the time the risky investment has made more money, sometimes alot more
-17% of the time it didn't
So as a bet it's a good bet. A good bet doesn't mean you put all your money in, but if you have multiple good bets and just 1 or 2 of them pay off the gains can cover the ones that didn't. The way I apply this in real terms is to put about 20% into various good bets of this sort, and each one has a certain percentage chance to do really well. If you don't get unlucky, you can double your net worth with a small bet..
The other 80% of my money I put in "safer" things, because even with all this theory and simulation you don't actually know for sure what the payoff is - and some of these risky bets are highly correlated.

 

Rather than picking apart numbers chosen by one person for a tweet thread, here's a logarithmic ratio chart of BTC vs Dow Jones Index over 10 years. BTC outperformed it by 120580.49%.

 

I'm still short from $62,

My guess is a final push up to bring in any more dumb longs, before a massive liquidation, maybe to around $18 - $12

 

https://slashdot.org/story/21/06/23/1637244/south-african-brothers-vanish-and-so-does-36-billion-in-bitcoin

US$3.6 billion gone from an exchange that got "hacked".

 

end of the qtr might bring some interesting moves, for FX and the US$ that is, not so sure about crypto, but high chance IMO that it could be dumped heavy with everything else.

GBP$ also at an interesting place with the weekly after a massive liquidation last week, on the monthly almost 13 months of strong buying with only 3 small pullbacks, feds also talking of tightening, though I dont follow news much

 

Son is crypto staking

Staking is the process of actively participating in transaction validation (similar to mining) on a proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain.

Also, keen on ETH as opposed to Bitcoin, and has a % in Shiba Inu coin

All double-dutch to me

 

South Africa



The heavily armoured Toyota Land Cruiser was escorting millions of rand – one million rand is around $90,000 – worth of mobile phones.

 

Funny joke, but it's literally the same word.

krona = crown, just like some other countries use a 'crown' as the name of their currency.

In English, their currency is called the Swedish crown. 'Krona' is just how to say that word in Swedish.

'Corona' also means 'crown'. e.g. Spanish and other similar languages.

 

ABC biz had a crypto segment tonight.

This time I def in agreeance with Shane Oliver from AMP.

The Business: Cryptocurrency Special : ABC iview

 

I'm all for people dressing how they please, but old mate Finder Freddy isn't doing Bitcoin any favours rocking up on Insight like he's just come from a sesh with the boys.

 

The ignorance from Shane oliver is hilarious!

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/20/bitcoin-btc-falls-below-30000-as-cryptocurrency-market-plunges.html

• Bitcoin fell below $30,000 for the first time since Jun. 22 dragging other digital coins lower.
• About $98 billion was wiped off the entire cryptocurrency market in 24 hours as of 12:29 a.m. ET on Tuesday, according to CoinMarketCap data.
• Bitcoin was down more than 6% while ether fell nearly 9% and XRP tanked almost 11%, according to CoinDesk data.

Since bitcoin’s all-time high of nearly $65,000 in mid-April, its price has plunged over 50%.

 

Instead of saying he's ignorant how about you refute some of his points because the other guest certainly didn't! The "potential crypto bank" guest literally said that Bitcoin was like digital gold...

 

He literally refuted every point! It is like digital gold. Not sure what your getting at?

 

These kind of percentages may sound large compared to traditional markets, but for new technology markets it happens alot.
For crypto in particular - it happens every month, sometimes every week and occasionally every day. If you look at some of the riskier alt-coins it can be even more - some go to zero in a single day..

40-50% drops happen almost every year sometimes multiple times in a year. In fact if it's a cycle top it can even fall 80%+
The profitable thing to note is that drops of this size usually come after a ~500% increase. E.g. The price a year before the recent boom was under $10k. It's pretty simple maths but if you purchased more than a year ago most of the time you're ahead of the volatility - well ahead. Rare exceptions are those who purchase tops - for someone that bought at $64k I expect it will take them a while to make their 300%+ expected gains.

If you're a trader though, it's a another level of risk and reward.

 

I see China’s digital yuan has reached over $5.3 billion in transactions since its debut

In other news



Malaysian cops seized and destroyed 1,069 bitcoin mining rigs by crushing them with a steamroller — after the miners allegedly siphoned off almost $2 million worth of electricity to power the energy-intensive machines.

 

Still super bullish on crypto. Loving the cheap prices of Eth

 

I never said he was smart or even good, the opposite in a few posts.

He refuted the points with pseudo facts but no direct reply.
How much is a btc transaction? How long?

Het answered "mining on the network is FREE and instant".
Wrong. Is he lying? I doubt he wouldn't know.
Today's transaction time is 24 mins!
https://www.statista.com/statistics/793539/bitcoin-transaction-confirmation-time/

The "hacking" was def hazy in the language by the "suit".

He says BTC is outside the banks and financial system, and yet he and every crypto currency dream of recognition from banks and govs.

Banks around the world already verify their own transactions, they can easily build their own blockchain and probably already have. They don't need BTC or ETH.

There's no such thing as "digital gold". Gold is tangible with many practible and industrial uses.
BTC nothing of the sort.

BTC earning interest? Rent it to traders? And when they lose it who guarantees it?

"Energy goes into the ground" wtf?
BTC is not really decentralised. Only a few people get to vote on it.

ETH seems more useful and fsater, still can't see how useful it can really be inside the "system".

They look like old S9s and L3s, wouldn't be very profitable unless they stole the power. About a us dollar a day each atm.