COVID-19 impacts on the Australian economy & housing market

Because with that logic I’d have to create my industry data for anything I’m interested in. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect an industry to act to some ethical standard.

 

Auction rate fall triggers 'peak' fears

Auction rate fall triggers 'peak' fears

 

Half our GDP was Government spend, without it, figure was -0.6.

Next quarter is estimated at -8 %. The US estimate is -20 to -40 %.

 

With low volume, auction clearance rate is less relevant.

 

Deferral customers prematurely resuming repayments: ANZ

“In rough numbers, about a third of our customers who took a deferral are making some payments – not full payments – although nearly 5 per cent are now back to making full payments.”

I wonder if that trend will continue & would love to know other lenders' figures...

 

So those who didn’t need to defer finally decided to pay their mortgage again.

 

I guess that's the cynical take, with the optimists probably preferring to believe that people are getting back to work and making money again. Who knows.

 

I can’t remeber the source but I saw something saying the majority of people who applied didn’t need it.

 

I am unsure how they could prove this data so quickly BUT I do believe a significant portion of people who deferred payments probably didn’t need to. Whether that was due to no change in employment, only a slight change or having more than adequate savings buffers.

 

I quoted AON / Illion report in another thread but that was about 10k super withdrawals were being wasted rather than needed when someone mentioned they thought the program had been cancelled.
That was super 10k rather than bank loan deferrals but were you thinking of that one?

 

Sold listing activity in the 600-900k for houses in Melbourne are beginning to slowly pick up again. This is only for the suburbs shown in the box plot

 

Exclusive
One in five home loan deferral customers in strife

 

Secret documents give Reserve Bank's grim view of property market

 

^^^^ and it's reference article is even scarier:

Australia risks a 32pc house price crash in a 'prolonged downturn', CBA warns

For Australia's largest bank CEO to come out and say that house prices could fall by 30% in the years ahead - that is very worrying.

 

Did you miss all the times it has been mentioned that the CBA report was "worse case scenario".

 

Key words..

 

Yes, in my reply I used the language "could" in reference to Mr Comyn's comment as a worst case scenario. To me, this is still alarming that the worst-case view by someone with the data and insight that he has; is 32% and not a 10-15% number. He has made the comment based on the current evidence he has.

 

Sorry but I had to jump up out of bed this morning to ask: "Do we want to be part of the problem or part of the solution?" I dont want to pick on any one poster, this rant of mine is to demonstrate a universal point. It's about the general psychology of language, and I assume that most people who use this style of communication are unaware they do it.

Post #814 here demonstrates the wording or phrasing that does cause alarm. We have seen many times since the GFC that the language features used by the media can make or break an emotive situation. Yes, the economic fundamentals are one part of the equation, but so too is public perception. I know not to believe the government 100%, whose role is to paint as rosy a picture as they possibly can, and not to believe the media 100% either. The media's role is to scare the bejeebers out of the public in order to manipulate their own financial and control outcomes. Every few months on PC here, we fervently debate an economic article, only to discover that once the dust has settled, the real situation has not turned out to be as dire as was forecast.

When I read the ABC article on Thursday (post # 813), I shrugged it off as "last week's news". I was actually surprised the ABC took so long to post it - either that or I haven't read any news sites in a week.

We have known since page 1 that the economy is going down bigtime. What is the point of endless commentary as to how much any average or median figure will be? We know that those predictions and economic data is irrelevant to most of the country and most of the population. It is only relevant to the exact location that happens to experience that particular outcome. We need to chill before we end up in ICU.

I should copy this to the Mindset threads!

 

The Moral of the Morbid

 

This doesn’t surprise me, when ever I spoke to my lenders they tried to shove a mortgage deferral down my throat after saying I was not impacted what so ever...