COVID-19: Australia vs the rest of the world

When in doubt, read the manual

Countries beating Covid-19 — EndCoronavirus.org

The comments at the end regarding lockdowns are interesting.

 

Some numbers for you.

I've expanded my stats to include all countries with more than 15,000 cases - which now includes Australia. There are 73 countries with more than 15,000 cases.

From this list of 73 countries, we are the 41st largest by population.

The IMF and the World Bank lists Australia as the 14th largest country by GDP, the United Nations rank us as #13 in the world.

On a GDP per capita basis, the IMF and UN ranks us at #10 and the the World Bank at #12.

We are currently ranked #72 in the world for overall number of infections (15,304) and #66 in the world for confirmed deaths (167).

Adjusted for population, we are #64 for infection rate (cases per head of population) at 0.06% (597 infections per million population), and #63 for death rate (deaths per head of population) at 6.5 deaths per million population.

I'd say we're doing pretty well - especially compared to our "peers" in terms of GDP - only South Korea is ranked higher in GDP than us, but has fewer cases. On a cases per head of population basis, nobody lower than us is higher in GDP per capita and on a deaths per head of population basis, only Singapore has a lower death rate but is higher in GDP per capital than us (but only according to the IMF and World Bank).

However, that's not what these charts are trying to show - they are showing a very simplistic measure of the number of new cases per day and using that to rank countries who are getting things under control. They don't adjust for population - they are only comparing raw numbers.

Their metrics are based on an average of the daily new cases over the last 7 days. So in Australia, we have had (counting backwards): 368, 532, 453, 355, 293, 408, 466 with an average of 410 new cases per day in the last 7 days.

Now if they were simply comparing the average number of new cases per day and ranking countries based on that - I think that's a reasonable approach - but I think there is something else happening in their rankings too - perhaps a rate of change measure?

I question why France at 836 new cases per day, Germany with 561 new cases per day, Pakistan with 1147 new cases per day and the UK with 666 new cases per day all get yellow status, while Australia with only 410 new cases per day gets red?

Yes, our curve is increasing, but it's from a very low base compared to the other countries listed.

Their ranking classifies us a "need to take action" to which I would agree - and I believe we are taking action, with Victoria back in lockdown and very active contact tracing nation-wide.

So I don't think there is anything particularly remarkable about their charts - I disagree with the "red" status for Australia based on the fact that many other countries in a far worse position than us are currently getting "yellow" status - but otherwise, I say, fair enough.

It's an interesting measure too - average recent cases per day gives a better indication of the current status than the overall numbers that I quote - which is why I've been including changes in ranking, to show relative movements in cases and deaths compared to other countries.

I might see if I can automate the process of crunching numbers to generate some stats that include a ranking of recent cases per day - it would be far too time consuming to do it by hand.

 

"Winning" is not really the right term - this is not a competition and we are all affected by this tragedy.

However, the numbers I have posted above clearly do show that Australia's response really has been one of the best in the world (especially amongst developed nations who you would expect to do well - but haven't) - even with the recent outbreak in Victoria.

 

The information seems to be accurate - but their interpretation of it is a little flawed in my opinion.

 

Are we? We've seen a recent upswing in one part of the country, which has taken a few weeks to get under control. I'd suggest that we'll be back at very low numbers again within 4-6 weeks, provided that people get the message and do the right thing.

The fact that we've largely managed to keep this largely isolated to Victoria - with only a few related cases appearing in NSW, is a good thing. We just need to keep doing the right thing and the numbers will drop again.

I don't know of any country who was "more lax than us" and now has it "under control" ? Some may be seeing fewer daily new cases right now (given we're at or near our peak for the current outbreak) - but most have been seeing consistently much higher cases than we have on a daily basis for quite some time now.

 

The Logan case where a teacher was unaware she had Covid for a week before being diagnosed, just might be the start of Queensland being in trouble.

 

I think that's more a reflection on how effective our first lockdown was (and how lucky we were) rather than on how badly we're doing now.

Yes, these countries seem to have done very well. I wasn't considering some of these Asian countries when I made my statement.

However, I am just a little sceptical about their numbers because I just don't think they are testing enough.

• Thailand have performed 696,656 tests.
• Vietnam have performed 261,004 tests.
• Laos have performed 26,386 tests.
• Australia have performed 4,032,061 tests.

I don't think those Asian countries actually have a clear understanding about the rates of infection in their own countries.

What I suspect is happening is that the virus has spread rapidly through the country - but most people simply aren't being affected badly by it and so it's treated as just a minor illness.

Let's look at the demographics - what percentage of the population is over the age of 65?:

• Thailand: 11.0%
• Vietnam: 6.4%
• Laos: 4.0%
• Australia: 16.4%

With so few people above the age of 65 years, the number of extremely vulnerable people is very small.

Let's also look at life expectancy:

• Thailand: 76.7 years
• Vietnam: 75.2 years
• Laos: 67.3 years
• Australia: 82.5 years

In Laos you would generally expect people to die in their late 60s, which corresponds with the age at which people start to become very vulnerable to COVID-19 ... so in Laos if someone dies in their late 60s from COVID-19, it is wholely unremarkable given that most people die around that age anyway.

Vietnam and Thailand have quite a bit longer life expectancy - but still, it's not unusual for people to die in their 70s anyway - so if older people are dying from COVID-19, it's probably not considered unusual and so these deaths are possibly not being considered as related to COVID-19?

I'd also assume that in those Asian countries, the majority of elderly people live with their family and not in aged care facilities? Given the pattern we've seen of very high death rates from aged care facilities in western countries - I'd suggest this is working strongly in their favour.

If 100 older people die in their homes in these countries because of the virus it is possibly not considered unusual, nor reported or tested for - while if 100 people in Australia die in aged care facilities, then we not only know about it (because we would have tested them in the facility), but it also becomes a matter of media attention because it is unusual.

In Australia, we have a substantially higher percentage of our population in those older age groups, who are also more vulnerable - and we also have a testing regime that is far more extensive and so we have a much better understanding of exactly how many cases we have and the numbers of people who have died because of COVID-19.

A large part of all of this is supposition on my part - but I think if you are going to make comparisons, you do need to consider all of the data. The biggest difficulty in making accurate comparisons is the different rates and approaches to testing in countries around the world.