Corona virus predictions

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by Sackie, 7th Mar, 2020.

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  1. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the pick up :D ... boggling amounts
     
    Lizzie, 9th Mar, 2020
    #181
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  2. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    Apparently one side is adamant they will ... not sure about the other. Might be a case of Darwinian process
     
    Lizzie, 9th Mar, 2020
    #182
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  3. Player

    Player Well-Known Member

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    What's one comma and three zeroes amongst friends :p
     
    Player, 9th Mar, 2020
    #183
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  4. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    Thinking about the number is relatable terms ... conversion to seconds

    1mil = 11 days
    1 bil = 31.5 years in
    1 tril = 3170.97 decades
     
    Lizzie, 9th Mar, 2020
    #184
  5. DueDiligence

    DueDiligence Well-Known Member

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    Correct me if I'm wrong, but we've never in history had both a supply and demand side shock occur together in the presence of a global health pandemic whilst OPEC disintegrates?

    A supply side shock cannot be fixed via monetary policy.From here its all about keeping people solvent and hoping demand returns.

    Due to the private debt load taken on globally since 2009 , many businesses only have around 60-90 days cash flow, after that , they're toast. The Fed gov (Aus) is throwing $10 billion at this problem specifically, as a stop gap on unemployment. If unemployment occurs, forget it, the system goes - you can't lend to people with no incomes. Further, viral spread will be exacerbated by the casualised workforce who can't afford to (and will lie if they have to) about being ok to return to work.

    The US Fed is moving towards ZIRP and considering changing legislation to allow them to buy direct stocks. They will stop at nothing to backstop the US market through Repos and owning everything after March.

    SARs - Sell all rallies, this is an FTD, financially transmitted disease.
     
    DueDiligence, 9th Mar, 2020
    #185
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  6. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Have a laugh....... prediction fail..... guilty
     
    MTR, 20th Apr, 2020
    #186
  7. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Beginning of March feels like a lifetime ago - so much has happened and changed in that time.
     
    Simon Hampel, 21st Apr, 2020
    #187
  8. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    I know.... who would have thought
     
    MTR, 21st Apr, 2020
    #188
  9. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    I heard a podcast today which gave a good idea of how a country could open up. It made sense. I think anyone hoping things will go back to normal (and there are plenty who do think this) will need to lower their expectations. It is worth a listen (20th April).

    It has no political bias, just a reasonable idea of how to open up, but be ready to close again if cases ramp up.

    ‎The Daily on Apple Podcasts
     
    wylie, 21st Apr, 2020
    #189
  10. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Sorry, @Sackie ... I think you were a bit out with your prediction.
     
    Simon Hampel, 18th Jun, 2021
    #190
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  11. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Fortunately we were able to stem the loss of life here in Australia and so far have kept it well under 1,000 deaths. Not so fortunate elsewhere in the world though :(

    How do you think you've gone with the rest of your predictions so far, @See Change ?
     
    Simon Hampel, 18th Jun, 2021
    #191
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  12. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Yep, definitely wrong with my prediction there.
     
    Sackie, 18th Jun, 2021
    #192
  13. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Although to be fair, in most parts of Australia we have largely been back to "business as usual" for a while now (occasional hiccups notwithstanding).

    I don't think we're seeing much hype or hysteria anymore (at least not in Australia) - especially with the vaccines now being rolled out.

    Still a lot of issues to resolve though - reopening the borders to international travellers being the main one.
     
    Simon Hampel, 18th Jun, 2021
    #193
  14. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    I was thinking about this and I cant get my head around how they are going to deal with this. Will they just close borders again if there is an outbreak? If thats the case, its reasonable to conclude borders may not be permanently open for...years more?
     
    Sackie, 18th Jun, 2021
    #194
  15. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    "Many millions of fatalities .
    Over 200,000 Australians will die ( though most will be over 80 ) .
    Will get a lot worse first"

    Well - they got the first bit right.

    The second bit was wrong - but only because the Government slammed the borders shut while WHO was still recommending unrestricted global flying. Could've been a very different story if we'd followed the lead of the rest of the western world
     
    Lizzie, 18th Jun, 2021
    #195
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  16. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

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    Wow, I think I was even correct to the week on that one..

    If anybody wants to know next week's lottery numbers, let me know:D




    (..sorry nfi :p)
     
    gman65, 18th Jun, 2021
    #196
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  17. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

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    Two weeks to flatten the curve
     
    Speede, 18th Jun, 2021
    #197
  18. Millie

    Millie Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, but you got this bit correct - happily.
     
    Millie, 18th Jun, 2021
    #198
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  19. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    I could have done even better if i didn't tinker with the advice like a control freak :oops::rolleyes: But on the whole i can't complain really.

    RE markets also flying. Yes, I'm a happy chappy.
     
    Sackie, 18th Jun, 2021
    #199
  20. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    At some time we need to open up .

    The key factor is what rate of immunisation do we need to get to so if we have an outbreak , the number of infections gradually decrease rather than increasing exponentially .

    At this stage , no one knows what that rate of immunisation is . What happens elsewhere will let us know the answer . People are guessing 70 % , but that’s a guess …

    Cliff
     
    See Change, 18th Jun, 2021
    #200
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