NSW Confused. which city is the best bet Next ? Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra or Hobart ?

That is incredibly cheap!!!...the question is how much to repair the damage??

 

No pics but a good $30k I'd imagine

 

The agent is already suggesting to destroy it so I'm guessing a tidy sum to repair. Could well be worth a look into though

 

Heaps!

 

30k in is still cheap....

 

True, I tend to only think of materials as I do the work myself.

 

I found an old article as follows. It is a bit long.
If too long, let me know and I will delete that.

It looks like when the predictions went wrong, it seems like a lot to do with affordability(After a good boom) and job security(resources or whatever). Any one missing will lead to stagnation, 2 missing will lead to bust. In this case, Brisbane, Adelaide will be perfect for the next choices because what needs to happen has happened and been priced in and they still have a versatile economy to support the bottom floor and possibly up.

So combining every veterans's wisdom, the following maybe a winning recipe without reno or minimum reno.

Buy Brissy and/or adelaide,
Buy cheapies or "next to cheapies" in metro or sort of area, not remote cheapie( don't know what I am talking about ) with extra DD and good PM
Buy landlocked area between city and sea.
Buy with low balling as hard as possible.
Some reno to increase rent.

will it work ?










Sydney property prices set to double

• 6 YEARS AGO MARCH 21, 2010 12:00AM
• 139 comments

Hold onto our property - prices are expected to double in a decade.

• Home prices tipped to double in Sydney
• Perth, Brisbane predicted to boom
• Thousands will be locked out of market

UP TO half of Sydney homeowners are set to become property millionaires, with house prices predicted to double in the next decade.

Figures prepared exclusively for The Sunday Telegraph by Australian Property Monitors (APM) show Sydney's median property price is on target to reach $1.2 million, averaging 7.6 per cent growth per annum.

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It's good news for those already in the market but economists say housing affordability is at a crisis, blaming both federal and state governments for failing to act. They warn the Australian dream of home ownership is ending.

Suburbs as diverse as Kellyville, Campsie and Forestville are all predicted to have a median above $1 million. Affordable outer-western suburbs such as Emerton and Blackett - both ranked in the top 10 for potential growth - could all be worth more than $600,000 by December, 2019.

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In high-end areas such as Watsons Bay and Palm Beach, homes are predicted to cost more than $8 million. Apartments will make solid gains across most suburbs.

Some inner-west areas, however, are among the lower performers. Coastal properties, hit hardest in the global financial crisis, could also make good returns over the next decade fuelled by baby boomers making sea changes.

John Symond from Aussie Home Loans said future generations would have little hope of getting into the market if such heights are attained.

"Young people should try to buy now while it's still reasonably affordable. They shouldn't over-commit themselves and will need to hold on to the property long term."

While Mr Symond said he doubted property would rise as much as predicted in the report, he said "if it gets to half of that it's still scary".

APM economist Matthew Bell said Sydney house prices have grown on average seven to eight per cent per annum over the past 20 years and this was set to continue.

"We are a relatively affluent country with very good long-term prospects in terms of resources boom and population growth - I just can't see us underperforming," Mr Bell said. "When I was young, a million dollars was a lot of money - now it's less money and that is just the power of inflation."

While Sydney prices are strong, it may not make the same gains as other cities with stronger projected population numbers.

Perth is expected to make strongest gains over the decade with the median house price tipped to jump 12.3 per cent, followed by Brisbane (11.6 per cent) and Melbourne (10 per cent).

"If I had to invest somewhere in Australia it would be Perth followed by Brisbane because you have strong incomes, a resources boom and strong population growth," Mr Bell said.

Wages in NSW are currently growing at 5.4 per cent per annum, according to APM, with experts warning this will not be enough to keep up with rising house prices.

"If all that income growth occurs, say in resource sector-related jobs, then large sections of the population will struggle to afford property in the future," Mr Bell said.

The APM data follows a housing affordability report that found if construction trends continue, Australia will face a housing shortfall of 466,000 homes by 2020. Sydney will need an extra 13,000 homes, the Housing Industry Association said.

HIA chief executive Graham Wolfe said the forecasts risk driving essential service workers out of the city. Governments needed to cut taxes and levies on land and new homes, more land needed to be released and existing properties should be rezoned.

"It's bad news for housing affordability and it's therefore correspondingly bad news for people looking to buy, and that's our sons and daughters," Mr Wolfe said. "What we don't want to do is chase our essential service workforce out of the city. With prices escalating at that rate, it will make it very difficult."

Mr Wolfe said too many established suburbs had large blocks of land with a single weatherboard house on site. And even if more property was released, governments and councils needed to cut taxes, levies and fees that can add up to $170,000 of the cost of a new house-and-land package.

CommSec chief economist Craig James said it was not all bad for aspiring homeowners. Disposable incomes have been rising by around 7.4 per cent a year in line with Sydney's forecast average property price growth of seven per cent a year to 2020.

Mr James said while the cost of utilities will rise, other services such as communication and household appliances are likely to fall.

"It's likely we'll see the cost of communication, household appliances, even travel become cheaper over time; that will free up extra dollars.

Debbie and Chris Comyns had to triple their mortgage when moving from Newcastle to Sydney last year.

But the gamble could pay off with the $700,000 home in Beaumont Hills predicted to be worth as much as $2 million by the end of the decade.

According to APM's prediction, the leafy north-west suburb could enjoy an average growth of 13 per cent per annum to the end of 2019.

This figure is based on historical price trends which give an indication of how prices could grow in the suburb.

However, even if this predicted price growth is less, the area and the surrounding suburbs such as Rouse Hill and Kellyville are all tipped to easily break the million dollar barrier.

"It's just amazing, I think we might have to stay in Sydney," Ms Comyns said. "It makes us feel a bit more comfortable about doing things to the house, knowing that we will get that money back,"

The couple and their two boys, Ethan and Jack, moved last September, after Mr Comyns was promoted to his company's Sydney office. They looked around and found little difference between paying rent and a mortgage.

Agent Stephen Giacomelli from Gilmour & Orley said it is possible that prices in Beaumont Hills could reach the double million mark.

 

Brisbane the clear cg winner amongst the others in the next 5 years. The reasons can be found in the overwhelming hype..., I mean discussion in various other threads.ie improving economy, jobs ( which will likely lead to salary growth) Consumer confidence, business confidence, rising consumer amd business direct foreign investment, pop growth etc.
Adelaide will see less growth, but some growth driven primary by the fact that it's less expensiveto buy. The economic drivers are absent in Adelaide which will greatly hold it back. Could even be that the economic situation in Adelaide gets worse before getting better- unemployment is reasonably high and pop growth is low.
Don't know much about Canberra RE, but from an economic view- Canberra is too heavily tied to federal govt, not enough private sector, and the federal govt industry is treading water. The service industries to the government are therefore only flat as their customers are flat.
Hobart - don't know, but have not heard any good economic news of any real significance ( I don't think I ever will. Lol)...I would think the lack of can't be good for RE..better buys elsewhere .

 

I wouldn't write off Hobart just yet.

It won't have the lucrative gains of the mainland, but then, it may not need to, if some properties can still achieve a combo of mild CG growth + high yields whilst holding (I say 'high' comparative to some of the poor yields the major cap cities are currently throwing up...).

Hobart is a low population city. It doesn't require huge volumes of people moving in, to produce a 'growing' population rate compared to mainland cities.

With the slowly increasing re-emergence of the forestry industry in the north of the state (i keep tabs on this via google alerts) after ten years in the doldrums + tourism massively growing again (both domestic amd especially Chinese), and a few significant infrastructure projects going in to Hobart (uni and hospital expansions) the economy there could be well positioned for growth.

The other appeal about Hobart is that, like Sydney and (somewhat) Adelaide , land is actually getting scarcer in the high-demand areas. The river forms a natural barrier to the east, north-east, and south-east of the 'city' side of the river, whilst Mount Wellington forms a natural barrier to the west.
= future increased land scarcity.

 

I rode the Sydney wave. I was hoping I could find another city/ies to do the same but with the current Post-APRA environment my bet is that no cities in Australia will do anything like a Sydney and Melbourne style 2013-15 boom.

You might get small 5% increases but nothing like double digit growths per year by doing nothing. I also think APRA will add more stringent requirements in 2016 so its not going to get any easier to get residental investment loans either even if the rates stay low, and this will really continue to dampen any price rises. Therefore, I think the returns of just natural growth may be anemic for the next couple of years.

But there are still many ways that will make you wealthy in this current environment. For me I believe these methods could be:

1. Manufacture growth through a value add reno, cosmetic or structural. As long as the reno returns say $3 for every $1 spent.
2. A Development - talk to any of the many experts on the forum for advice.
3. Buying NRAS - get in touch with @euro73
4. Look overseas - although the AUD is not strong, it may truly be a place to get better returns than Australia. Again, there are a few forumites that have shared their experiences.
5. And as pointed out by @JDP1, certain pockets of Brisbane should outperform (Brisbane is currently tipped for the best growth).... buy in those pockets that should be the standout performers (again, lots of info on this forum... refer to @seanbrissy's posts and other commentators). Know where the demand is, and will continue to be.

 

I've been sharing with my friend who only wants to buy an apartment in north shore in Sydney. In this environment he would be negatively geared big time for a long while. I personally cannot see myself paying more than 800k for a box in a suburb full of apartments. It took a while to convince myself yo look outside Sydney metro. I think majority of "investors" believe prices will always go up and not consider holding costs...

 

Correct re holding costs .

I was looking at the web site of a high profile property investing company and they quote figures for a property which are both wrong and misleading . They have a figure quoting the " increased income " , which doesn't appear to include any costs outside interest . So no management , insurance , rates , water which would rapidly turn their " increased income " into a negative figure .

Cliff

 

I have a friend who lives in a 3 bedroom apartment in St Leonards... the owner recently got a valuation on it and apparently it came back at 1.3 mill ..... anyway, that friend is looking to buy on the north shore but is thinking of 2 bedroom apartment, 1.1mill.... crazy stuff....

Will it pull back? Hmmm... possibly yes.....

 

That's makes property investing different between investors and the average punters.

 

What would that rent for? Holding costs for 7-10 years waiting for some cg would be nasty.
I guess that's the reason most 'investors' only buy 1 or 2 properties.

 

Nowhere near 5% i'd say... and my friend was afraid that the owner would raise rents on it, knowing it was worth 1.3mill. But its a knowing what the market will bear question.... rents are only loosely related to the property value.
If she wants to live in that area I hope she doesnt buy now... renting is still the go...

 

Partly agree and partly disagree...
Averaged over the entire market, yes the averages in brisbane (or any other cap city market) will not see the widespread averaged double digit of Syd.
However..look at individual suburbs - I think it was domain that had the growth numbers- can see several in double digits, especially in brisbane. going fwd, this fragmentation is expected to continue ( hint: @seanbrissy post re: best picks)..

 

Oh okay I misread your post and thought that it was for investment purposes.
Yes renting there might be the best option presently.

 

True. Agree with you there. Certain areas will perform better than average in Brisbane... gotta know where to buy .

 

Hi Kangaroo,

What's your financial strategy and long term goals?
Your comparing 4 completely different markets here. As far as Brisbane goes, as much as I'd like to say and wish as a local and property investor don't expect any type of Sydney boom here, maybe specific suburbs will experience above trend growth as there are "markets" within markets here, however broadly speaking on the Brisbane market it's "steady as she goes"