China property bust article....

I agree it's good entertainment tbh... if you keep predicting and update your predictions, you might eventually be right? Afterall, no dynasties or empires will last forever right? Its a common theme that some of the loadest China experts actually never been to China.

 

Hey Harris...I don't mind you either...but with all due seriousness....this is an internet forum. Lots of people wanting be liked...offering good to be sold...agendas etc. So you are correct ones needs to take things with a grain of salt. Lots of people claiming things or offering advice...but if the last couple of Zoom sessions are a guide a lot will not even put their cameras on? Hmm....wonder why...

As for 2017-2019 did you look to see that prices actually dropped in Sydney. The hit hit...share market came off....govt pumped almost 500b ....so yes it causing prices to rise globally...but for how long. Personally I am executing to my strategy...I don't listen to anyone anymore I do my own due diligence.

As for Italy...I have more family/friends in Europe...than most people here....Italy is still a basket case...economically they are a basket case...they ae courting the Chinese money...and the EU is not liking that much...without the EU Italy/Spain/Greece will be in dire straits. I am not always in awe of the yanks but I got to give it to them...they are pretty resilient, cunning and lets face it they are the most innovative nation in the world. I don't like communist autocratic nations....some people here think they are better than Australia...but I like the freedoms we have here...this is the best country in the world. I think Scomo is an idiot..but let me tell you him announcing nuclear submarines...shows a level of leadership showing we can't be bought. Wait till Japan and India also announce what they will also be building.

As for myself being wrong yes sometimes...but often not....because if I let everyone influence me...I would not have got to my position. I short...I ma here to share my view...maybe learn from some people (longer terms posters with a track record). I am not here to get likes ...or push an agenda. I see a lot on here doing exactly that...I just call it like I see it ...be it right or wrong....in Australia unlike China...we have certain freedoms enshrined on our constitution.

PS - there is always the ignore button.

 

I think you wear your heart on your sleeve - and that's awesome. I do however believe you intimidate a lot of people though - and especially those with plenty of great contribution to make. Ditto regarding you not wanting to chase likes! Can attest to that...

Perhaps if you just accommodate opposing view points without hitting them with a ton of bricks, we might end up having a lot more informed discussions.

But don't stop posting!

 

Perhaps if you knew the background through some of the diatribe which gets posted on here....and the agenda...you might agree.

I am ex corporate...and I used to see the same BS.....lots of fake it till you make it...these are people who are most intimidated as you have cottoned on to their BS. You call them out...and you become enemy number one.

 

Evergrande investors are now holding directors ransom.

Hopefully they turn AMC/GME into a movie and also Evergrande. Its good quality drama. Forget covid.

 

Interesting watching Evergrande play out. I've seen this play out in Ireland first hand.
If the apartments are in for a hard landing then best thing that could happen to those investors is they lose their deposits and walk away from the asset. Of course it would be difficult to explain that to them now, and no one likes to realise a loss. Especially mom and pop investors.

 

I agree it's going to be a huge pain for a lot of the protential owners but its highly unlikely to cause the scale of crash the scale of Ireland.
China is many multitudes bigger than Ireland in every measurable way, there's alot more lever that can pulled to softened the impact.

My personal view is that China will maintain the economy growth engine of the world in the foreseeable future, weather you or I like it or not. All the talks of BRICS countries in the last decade have been a major disappointment except China.

The term Chindia is a particularly embarrassing one for the guy who came up with the term. I am still embarrassed by using the term during a serious conversation a decade ago just by the thought of it.

I am sure most of us are well aware of the issues mentioned here, those are not new, most have been known for years frankly. Not saying they are not valid issues, and I do believe they are serious. but they are often lopsided and blow out of proportion like all doomsayer predictions for obvious reasons. So if you are on steady fastfood media diet you will obviously get freaked out like some of our good friends here

To make long story short, if you want to see a doomsday economic amagadon that stops China on its track, you will need to live quite a long time. I think there's still alot of gas in the tank for the China growth story before the headwind gets the better of it.

 

Of course they will. It's a no brainer. Some folks are too emotionally driven to understand why China will continue to grow and thrive, give or take.


I remember a couple of years ago all the talk of China slowing will be a disaster for Australian property.


gotta love it.

 

China have hit the wall in the short term and are now faced with the reality of a instant 2% GDP loss as evergrande craters. Not only is this an issue for them its a disaster for us~ they will cull our iron ore. The SUBS we have just ordered is a direct indication that we have cut ties with them.

...We are flexing our biceps while Beijing spits coffee all over the keyboard in laughter.

 

Video shows 15 high-rises blasted to smithereens in China's Kunming | Taiwan News | 2021-08-30 13:05:00

This is beyond a joke.....one has to ask the question where is the money now?

 

IMO this is what we should do with melbourne sky rises that sit vacant. No need for large commercial towers in a post covid world.

& that money is gone.

I honestly expected china to be the powerhouse of this century however I am now leaning towards India being the dark horse. I think also Nigeria has the capacity should it get things politically straightened out.

 

Let's look back in 24 months. I'm confident it'll have little effect on local property markets.

Re India, I was pondering that myself. But given how they've responded to covid etc, my bet is still on China.

 

well its having a brutal impact on share prices of REIT's/developers in china ATM. Similar to casino stocks.

gear up for a interesting 24 months.

India is a little under developed, could be a good thing.

 

For sure.

 

Most Indian newly formed middle class will leave the country taking significant amount of their capitals with them, depriving their own motherland of much need capitals to grow, very sad truth.

The lack of trust, over different castes, states etc, I’d say India will be separated before it is developed.

Just my 2c

 

why so? I used to be optimistic about India's perspect, but over the last dacade or so, there hasn't been any significant progress in anything that really counts. In fact, they have lost the software development edge, that then arguably had over China. They continue to punch much below its weight in pretty much everything from infrastructure, scientific research, manufacturing to Olympics. The younger population was one of the advantages that journalists and economists have often cited. But it's likely to work against its progress as most of its young population are under educated in an increasingly knowledge economy. They also dont have the large manufacturing industry to soak up the population growth. China on the other hand have made significant progress in automation, robotics and AI to offset lots of the demographic headwind.

 

Wait, they had! Become leaders to many top companies like Google, but not much for their motherland…

 

You need to look harder...the number of billionaires there ...gives the picture.

Whilst COVID has put a dampner.... a lot more manufacturing is heading there. The reason software industry is moving again offshore is Indian companies are now moving to cheaper countries...as wages in some Indian states have risen dramatically.

I would not write these countries off....their top universities....leave the Chinese ones for dead. But the issue is they leave for the USA...where they are snapped out.

Did you know India is also the largest SW...Phama...and Service based industries in the world. They are now also building cars and entering complex manufacturing.

Sure China has some advantages in Telecoms....AI...and some Robotics...but with the govt controls this may go backwards.

I worked for an US company ...they were firing Chinese staff because they got to expensive. This is what is now happening in China in some cities...their wages are too high to the point....they are not as competitive. Having said that they are focusing more on knowledge based workforce. But to be successful...they need to know English well...this is where India has an advantage. Companies like SAP...Bayer are now doing theitr R&D in India...funny they did not chose China....that is because they know there will be CCP interference.

 

There's no doubt there a lot of very capable Indians. There's a few that I have the pleasure to work with so this is not base on ethnicity or race at all. But what's going on in India so far does not in anyway reflect the capability of those Indians I got to know I afraid.