NSW Central Coast - Tuggerah/Hamlyn Terrace

Hi,

Another Central Coast thread but none of them really covered this area so thought I would ask. I am moving to this area for a job and am looking to buy a PPOR around Mardi/Tuggerah or Hamlyn Terrace/Woongarrah. I will be possibly looking to turn this in to a IP in 3-5 years.

It looks like prices have recently shot up in the last 6-18 months and interested to see what people thought this area would be doing. I have a chance to live in a home up there already so it is not urgent to buy but if the market looks set to keep going up I think now would be a good time to buy.

There seems to be a few House & Land packages going to come out in the next 6-12 months what is everyone's thoughts on buying one of these instead of a existing house?

Thanks,
Matt

 

As a general rule I don’t do predictions, but on the balance of probabilities, I think you could make some decent CG especially since most of this CG is (and will be) due to the ripple effect coming out of the Sydney property market – which shows no signs of slowing down. Whenever Sydney does well, areas within a 1 hour commute also do well. So we see Wollongong to the South, Blue Mountains to the West and Central Coast (Gosford) to the North all going thru a growth cycle. Even if Sydney stopped dead in its tracks right now, today, it would take 6-9 months for the market to peak on the Central Coast. This is borne out by the fact that when Sydney peaked in 2003, the Central Coast did not peak until 2004.

Yes, when it stops it can fall back 5-10%.

In my opinion, there is better value to be had buying established.

 

I did this post here on another thread, which covered my sentiments on the local area.

At least you have the job first, good move as that is the hardest part up here.

 

Thanks, I have looked at all the past sales over the last 3-6 months and I think it is slowing down a little bit in some areas but I feel this may pick up again in spring/summer for a little bit more of a run specially if Sydney does.

That is what I am worried about buying in the peak and then losing 5%-10%. It appears that when the central coast does go down it goes down more then Sydney.

I agree with the established home I am only considering buying a H&L or building because I get the exception from stamp duty etc as I am a FOH

Thanks for that, I must of missed your post in the other threads, I tend to agree with most of what you are saying. I am still sceptical if this Warnervale Town Centre is ever going to get done! I am a little worried about there been an over supply in the Hamlyn Terrace/Woongarrah/Wadalba area. But in other threads others have said all these releases could push the prices up more.

Yes I was very lucky to get a good paying and secure job back on the Central Coast.

 

The WTC is a done deal, hudson is currently developing their long awaited stages on Hiawatha, the main road going into the town centre is almost open, how far around is completed, I'm not too sure but should be able to drive up their soon. Then Woolies will start the next phase of the town centre no doubt as it's the access everyone needs.

Prices in the long term will be determined by supply & demand like the rest of the country. Sydney has a tight supply and high demand and therefore an incredible market, but it is also within its cycle.

Looking for a PPOR is one thing and for me a completely different criteria to looking for an IP. In the next few years there will be a certain oversupply and prices should go sideways and flat for a period, like in most cycles, then we will go into a shortage of supply mixed with a higher than normal demand and you will see good value and great CG opportunities bear fruit. I still feel we will be on a 15 year cycle with one caveat, if an unprecedented amount of jobs get created then the cycle should shift to 11-12 years IMHO.

 

Do you know if all those Hudson Homes have all be released yet? I noticed a couple on their site that are sold but I could not find any released previously? Unless it was some time ago.

Thanks, I knew that Woolworths had signed up but I didn't realise that it had progressed that far. It seemed like they were still in the very early stages so wasn't sure if it was a done deal. It is good to hear that it is though I think that it is going to be great for the area!

Do you think that it would be better to buy as close as you can to the new Town Centre or do you think that it won't really matter too much? I am liking the Hamlyn Terrace/Woongarrah area more then Wadalba. But Wadalba looks like it is just developing and it also has a new woolworths going in soon. I noticed that with a lot of the new estates the land is much smaller and is max around 500sqm.

Thanks for your replies it is interesting to hear everyone's opinion.

 

This is a risk attached to any real estate investment. Prices can go up as well as down. If you don't have to sell then a "loss of equity" can be managed and largely ignored while you wait for a recovery.

 

Hudson will do a multi stage release from my understanding of it. I believe the early stage is sold out with more to come.

Should be fantastic for the area, the whole WTC originally was mean't to be finished by 2010, so like all things it's a long time coming.

Wadalba will have a lot of supply coming on to the market in the next few years.

Personally my preference is usually within about 5km of any activity centre.

Hamlyn Terrace/Woongarrah are nicer and more upmarket than Wadalba, we live in Woongarrah, bought back before anyone considered it a hotspot, lots of land, plenty of dirt, now I see houses everywhere, it will depend what your budget and strategy is as to what you should consider buying.

 

How was your search @Rison?

 

Re Wadalba, supply of houses or units? I havent looked into Hamlyn Terrace...I kinda like B Vale and K Vale. What do you think of san remo?

 

Wadalba supply is predominately new houses.

A large amount of new builds in Hamlyn Terrace especially on the pacific highway boundary are mostly town houses.

As I've stated before I wouldn't touch San Remo if you paid me. The banks particularly don't like that suburb as well however, each to their own I guess.

 

New land will be coming on the market in Berkeley Vale soonish.

About 25 or so lots

 

Understood. Gentrification might take a generation or two.

 

Prices are steadily rising (over a very long time) and levelling out with lower prices of it's surrounding suburbs. It doesn't seem to be the cheapest suburb as a whole to buy in anymore.

Once upon a time you could be guaranteed you'd pay less than anywhere else. However, over the last 20+ years San Remo still remains horrid! It still has crime and delinquency issues. The local shops don't seem to hang around too long. There have been road work going on over the last few months in the main thoroughfare, but under par everywhere else. Curb and guttering is intermittent as are pathways.

IF you were to ever consider, I'd keep as far away from the schools as possible or at the mid to far ends of the streets closer to the schools. It does have a few nice places, but I would still try to find something better elsewhere.

 

I just drove on pacific hwy yesterday and saw the sign to Windale (through Swansea) but didn't enter because I was in a hurry to get to an appointment. I remain curious. I agree with @Loz that CC has moved up in prices as a whole, albeit slowly.

 

I just did some research on the Central Coast.
Gosford LGA did 15.5% in 2014 and another 12.5% in 2015
Wyong LGA did 10% in 2014 and a further 13% in 2015
** disclaimer: Of course LGAs are an average of a lot of suburbs. Some individual suburbs within the particular LGA will out-perform the overall average whilst some will under-perform.

 

I think I was looking at the underperforming ones perhaps. It has certainly moved up, not as quick as Sydney...even at this rate, they are now out of my range.

 

The Gosford LGA median is currently $585K and Wyong's is $440K. Still plenty of cheaper buys (for how much longer??) in the Wyong LGA.

 

anyone's guess. I've been looking at the K and B Vale and surroundings. i do know some people are buying up in gorokan, blue haven, woongarah and wyong.

 

Historically, the Central Coast peaks 9-12 months after Sydney. Last Sydney peak in 2003 was followed by CC in 2004.