Castle hill selling 23% above

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by jembuss, 8th Feb, 2020.

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  1. jembuss

    jembuss Active Member

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    The following 2 properties in sydneys hills district sold today at auction for around 23% over what was expected.

    What your thoughts on this? Is the market really heating up that fast? Is confidence really that high?

    1st property glenhaven feed back a couple months ago was they would get 1.8m-1.9m
    SOLD $2,215,000

    2nd property kellyville feed back was they would get around 1.3m
    SOLD $1,631,000

    Cant get my head around it and wonder what the PC's community's thoughts are on this.
     

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  2. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    Who's feedback and expectations??

    Feedback and expectations aren't bible

    Let alone if it comes from an agents mouth
     
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  3. Gockie

    Gockie Unicycle - get exhausted but never two tired Premium Member

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    The estimates are calculated using statistics... and they can be very wrong.
     
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  4. fols

    fols Well-Known Member

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    Feedback from who?

    One needs to do their own research/ Comp analysis.
     
  5. jembuss

    jembuss Active Member

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    My partner is a agent, property 1 that went for 2.2m was being sold off market, bites they were getting from potential buyers were around 1.8-1.9m went to auction and got 2.2m

    We are having a little debate about it lol i wanted to know where she gets the 1.8m & 1.3m figure as i am very sceptial somone payed 23% above market value for both these properties. I did a search on pricefinder and rpdata to try get some info on the properties. Doesnt make sense to me. I attached photos from pricefinder and rp. Thought id get some insight from you guys on this.
     
    Last edited: 8th Feb, 2020
  6. Archaon

    Archaon Well-Known Member

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    Markets within markets is my guess, RPdata could be postcode wide, where there could be streets which are more sort after.

    Have you tried to find comparables?
     
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  7. jembuss

    jembuss Active Member

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    Yeh not much to compare atm, low stock that could be why, there was these 3 attached.
     

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    Last edited: 8th Feb, 2020
  8. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    Market is what someone paid for it. That just means the estimate isnt very good.
     
    Last edited: 8th Feb, 2020
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  9. Melbourne_guy

    Melbourne_guy Well-Known Member

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    Off-market = a fishing expedition by RE agents (whilst waiting on the contract to be finalised) to determine where to set the reserve or selling price.;)
     
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  10. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    Automated Vals use complex algorithms which amount to little more than a WFG.

    http://globe.six.nsw.gov.au/Propert...ml?type=suburb&postcode=2156&suburb=GLENHAVEN

    Going through the stats above, (with no BS filtering admittedly), take https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-glenhaven-127476294 a 4/3/3 house on 861 m2 and only a couple of minutes away, sold 14/04/18 for $2M (not peak market), newer than your first example but smaller.

    As for 7 Zachary Pl Kellyville, it is zoned R3 Medium density. It was an off market sale, who was the buyer? ie was it the neighbour who now has a medium density site which meets council's requirements for redevelopment?
     
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  11. Rolf Latham

    Rolf Latham Inciteful (sic) Staff Member Business Plus Member

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    low volumes, low stock, agents doing it tough, combine that with late FOMO and its a great time to sell in that 1 to 1.5 upgrader market.........as long as you deploy the cash elsewhere and dont need to upgrade urself

    ta
    rolf
     
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  12. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    If you flick through the comparables, it's theres a large spread of different types of properties, with a lower quality homes. So an estimate based on sold properties would probably underestimate the probable sales price when the market is fairly hot.

    Also this is a upgrader dream home. These people have more resources and are willing to spend the money.

    The ad for 31 Cairngorm includes a few photos and floorplan from 2012, for some reason. The reno is a total transformation. Look at that kitchen. They combined the dining, living and kitchen together to make one huge kitchen space with that massive island. Turned the lounge into a tiered media room. The pool is new. All the doorways were enlarged and a lot of internal walls taken out. The balcony and alfresco areas have been extended.

    This is the sort of house you walk into and it just blows you away because it looks so much newer and better inside than from outside.
     
    Last edited: 8th Feb, 2020
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  13. jembuss

    jembuss Active Member

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    Well spotted i did notice the reno, havnt looked at to many comparables yet as i have been at work all day.
     
  14. jembuss

    jembuss Active Member

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    Not sure on who the buyer was for 7 Zachary Pl Kellyville, i can try find out
     
    Last edited: 8th Feb, 2020
  15. twobobsworth

    twobobsworth Well-Known Member

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    Both far above what I would expect but we have friends that have sold on a busy road in Kellyville for close to $1.5 after pulling from sale a year ago.

    Glenhaven falls into Castle Hill High, it's a nice pocket, lots of OO, little stock, low interest rates. $2m used to buy something special there, maybe not anymore.
     
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  16. jembuss

    jembuss Active Member

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    Its crazy, same property sold in 2012 for $940k

    136% increase in less then 8 years or 17% a year.
     
    Last edited: 9th Feb, 2020
  17. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    2012 would be the start of the boom. With that sort of renovation, less than doubled on cost. So roughly in line with the wider sydney market.

    just shows that a boom is great for renos too.
     
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  18. Kid hustlr

    Kid hustlr Well-Known Member

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    Your maths is wrong
     
  19. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    Simple and compounding growth rates are not the same thing.

    add in the six figure reno? Maybe 8-9% compound increase a year. Which would already be an incredible boom. 2012 would be almost perfect timing for this sydney cycle.

    jembuss, you have to realise that you lack a lot of basic knowledge. Keep reading and learning.
     
    Last edited: 11th Feb, 2020
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  20. jembuss

    jembuss Active Member

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    $940,000 to $2,215,000 in 8 years is a indeed 136% increase.

    No 17% a year is not compounded just the average 136% over the 8 year.

    No this does not account for renos or money spent on the property in that time.
     
    Last edited: 11th Feb, 2020