ACT Canberra market 2020 and beyond

Lots of change is happening right now in the Canberra residential market - apartment construction is up, freestanding house construction is down and new infrastructure projects are aplenty! Where do you think are the suburbs to watch when it comes to buying a townhouse/apartment?

Light rail will be coming south side, connecting Woden to the city (likely by 2027) - is Phillip the place to buy?

Alternatively, the Molonglo Valley will see a new primary and high school opening in 2021 and 2023 respectively - are Denman Prospect, Coombs and Wright looking appealing?

Will the rate of construction ease in the Inner North - Braddon has inherent appeal, but capital growth has been constricted by an oversupply of apartments.

Keen to hear your thoughts! I'm a first home buyer with plans to leave the city (and my investment) behind me.

 

Hi Up and comer,
you pretty much answered your own question in your last sentence. Don’t bother with units in Canberra - huge over supply thanks to GEOCON. There is no sign of slowing down so my personal opinion is to avoid units in Canberra. Yes, you may get a high rental yield but long term growth is near nothing. Phillip is the same as inner north and Belconnen - units, units and more units.

Molonglo Valley is ok if you want to again invest in a cookie cutter property that looks exactly the same as every other house on the street. Just remember, the new suburb Whitlam is under way (next to Denman Prospect) and it will be the same - small Blocks in yet another ‘estate’. I see people tiring of packed in housing estates and moving more towards older suburbs, big blocks where they can add value.

You didn’t say a budget but why not look for land and house in one of the older Canberra suburbs.
Suburbs like Melba, Latham, Holt, Flynn are great for big blocks, older houses but with huge potential to add value and increase equity. On south side maybe look at Kambah, Weston Creek.
Good luck!

 

I wouldn't be thinking of Philip and light rail as the light rail will be tied closely to the bus interchange and Philip already has strong and fast bus links to the city and other town centres. If you can afford it the suburbs either side of Yarra Glen/Adelaide Avenue are likely to see significant development as part of the funding (and passenger) model for the light rail is increased density along the route. The future opportunities with light rail I suspect are based on the longer term extension to Tuggeranong. Have a look around Southlands and the proposed redevelopment there.

The Molongolo Valley doesn't inspire me and the ACT is quick to build the required infrastructure as new suburbs are developed so any new suburb (eg Whitlam) will see schools built but public transport will take time to evolve in the area. I have been watching the work on Whitlam progress as I drive past several days a week. The vista from many blocks onto the Brindabellas will be great but you are looking at a suburb that slopes down to the south west and that is where major weather comes from. I am unsure where the Town Centre for Molongolo will be but if interested in the area is the part to watch.

 

What do you guys think of the Whitelam prices (Whitlam | Land Release 2020) (the 'block list' has the prices). Very roughly 400k for 500 sqm.

Whats a reasonable house cost these days in canberra? 400k?

 

I have been looking this evening and I'm surprised to say that you will not get a detached 3 bed house for less than $580K, trending to $600K+.

 

As others have mentioned I would avoid apartments as there are too many being built and growth has been minimal.

If your budget allows try and buy a house.

I think the Whitlam prices are good value for the location. We are currently building in Denman Prospect. The Whitlam blocks are cheaper and also closer to the city and Belconnen. Whitlam is being done by ACT gov so they won't be as strict with the building covenants as Denman.

The give you a rough idea of building costs, for a small single level 4/2/2 that is 220m2 in total (160m2 living+garage+alfresco) would at least $380k plus landscaping. The cost can vary a lot depending on inclusions and the design. I would think a 4 bed H+L package in Whitlam would be 750k+.

 

Have a look at renaissance homes. renhomes.net.au - built my house 10 hrs ago, very good build quality, no issues during build and they have been in Canberra for decades. Really well priced houses and good simple floor plans for their non customised builds. In the 300ks for 4/2/2 houses.

 

Yes Canberra houses good deal for owner occupiers, apparently not so good for investors due to land tax. Great place to live for many government employees and the businesses that serve them.

 

cheers guys. Not keen just thought i would ask what others think

As Kendall said your looking at 750k+ no worries. Rather buy older house and land and spend 200k on renoes if i had 800k to spare. No doubt they will sell though, might be good for the not too far away belco suburbs.

 

this gave me a surprise

 

Good grief. I wanted to buy in March buy couldn't get finance. Bummer.

 

This data shows Evatt median house price being $668K (Evatt, ACT 2617 - Auction Results History - AuHousePrices.Com) and AllHomes has median non-unit price being $669K (Evatt (ACT 2617) Suburb Information | allhomes).

So I think that data is an anomaly.

 

Ah I think I know what it is. The median *auction only* price for Evatt is $750K (Evatt, ACT 2617 - Auction Results History - AuHousePrices.Com) but the median price for all types of non-unit sales (private treaty, auction) is $668K.

So the auctions skew the data to show $750K, whereas the actual median is $668K. Still, though... expensive.

 

its from here... it is more up to date than most medians i assume..but yes perhaps less accurate

Evatt, ACT House Median Price History

 

Canberra prices have risen quite sharply. The 2 bedder we bought in Latham (Feb 2019) for 360k (+30k reno) would now bring low 5's base on recent comparables.

I still expect the government to take the axe to the public service, and thus property prices, once the pandemic is history.

 

I wonder if the move toward remote working will be a boon for cities like Canberra - it may be possible for many employees to work remotely from Canberra as their employers embrace the new way of working.

This might attract more interstate migration.

 

We are seeing some incredible results at auctions in Canberra the past few weeks. The market, particularly in that 700k-1 mil bracket is super hot. This place in Holt sold back in Feb 2017 for $620,000 and then sold at auction on the weekend for $855,000! That's an 8% per annum gain over the last 4 years. Had been fully renovated back then so nothing more done to it.
Sold 12 Beaurepaire Crescent, Holt ACT 2615 on 04 Feb 2017 - 2013317408 | Domain
And this one in Franklin
Sold 20 Oodgeroo Avenue, Franklin ACT 2913 on 16 Feb 2021 - 2016778067 | Domain
Previously sold for $575,000 in 2013 and went for $915,000 prior to auction. Meaning close to a 7% per annum growth rate over 8 years
Things in my area of Franklin/ Harrison selling for considerably more than they were 12 months ago, particularly around that 800-900k bracket. 3 bedroom houses that were mid 700s a year ago now going for around 800k or more.
As predicted by most on this form, the apartment market has not really moved at all.