Can Australia be Greece?

@radson
whoa... I guess Jim Rickard is just another doom and gloom predictor ....

What about Phillip J. Anderson ? is that another Prophet of Doom ?
Website: http://www.phillipjanderson.com/18-year-real-estate-cycle/


Thanks

 

I have no idea Tekoz, I am just leery of anyone preaching any form of certainty with regards to markets. Much more of a Taleb 'Black Swan' kind of guy. I dont seek, nor expect certainty but understand the predilection of many 'financial' commentators to appeal to many people's sense of wanting definitive order out of chaos..especially if they have a book or newsletter to sell.

 

I don't think Australia will ever be Greece...I went last year for 6 weeks and saw how backwards they are...refuse to pay taxes, only except cash, they even like to park legally on the streets, the government is very corrupt.

In Australia you can easily start your own business and succeed if you save properly. Even that minimum wage is a hell of a lot better than most countries around the world! I am very happy to pay my taxes and the roads, parks and beaches show for it. This is why people are moving here because it is such a good and relatively safe country hence the price increases.

I think people go overboard with the world crashing down and out.

 

Have a Greek friend who has family there and he's really up to date with what's happening there and he pretty much echoed to me what @Jessproperty observed.

 

A+

 

It's just a matter of time unless something changes.
Eventually welfare and gov spending will not be enough and cannot be recouped from productive working people in society.
There are also other subversive factors in the Greek/SEU political and economic systems that gain from having them deeply in depth.
Around 2050.

 

The fear I have is that the 'cash only' economy is rapidly emerging in urban australia. Basically, I am saying 'all' of Australia because upwards of 70%+ of our total population is now located in our state capital cities.

The cash economy is basically people saying 'I want all the services, clean beaches, Medicare, welfare, free schools etc., but I'm not willing to pay for it. I'll just let all the other mopes pay for it with their high taxes, then I'll use use, use, use, for free, free, free'. That mindset is most unwelcome but in my humble opinion it is on the increase.

Some people have no decency and just want everything for free. I volunteered recently for a day at a work function where we fed the homeless on a cold Sydney Morning. There were genuinely needy, homeless, and poor people rightfully getting their hot breakfasts, snacks, coffees and so on. But then about half the crowd were a bunch of elderly folks (all of one particular race but I don't want to go there as that gets off-topic and into 'accusations of racism' for me!). Here they were, clean hands, new shoes, faux-Gucci handbags, latest-model Samsung devices, all barging forward for some free bacon and eggs. They weren't homeless, they were just greedy leeches on society.

What kind of sickos shoves themselves forward in line in front of genuinely homeless and needy, just to get a free feed?

Of course, the rules were that all who come are entilred to be fed (no matter how non-homeless they looked, we had to feed them to avoid discrimination ), but that moment stuck out for me as a mini 'end of Australian decency' moment. Imagine these kind of folks at scale, in society. Doing everything in cash, leeching off of Medicare, welfare, and other services, and contributing little to no tax.

For this reason I'm of the view that we ought to increase the gst because it's the one tax that no one can hide from (except for cultural restaurants without any eftpos machines, I.e. 'cash only!' Signs).

Makes me chuckle in those restaurants. Many of them don't even have a cash register that can itemize a receipt! I ask for receipts and they get the old written book out (not even a carbon copy sheet underneath!). How the devil do thewe restaurants have any accountability when the ATO audits them??

 

Were they Scottish?

 

Can Australia Be Greece (or Greek)




No worries....

Loads of good Greeks here

 

@sash ozo bout so my friend

 

Unlike Greece -- which uses the Euro and has monetary policy tied to the European Central Bank -- Australia has its own currency (AUD) and central bank (RBA).

Australia has a lot of monetary and fiscal tools in its arsenal, including currency devaluation, fiscal stimulus, quantitative easing, and immigration.

Greece, for example, cannot do this independently of other Eurozone economies (Germany would oppose Greece from doing this of course): Could helicopter money cure Australia's economic ills? Citi thinks so

 

For Australia to be like Greece....we one...need to be very corrupt....and have the national past time of not paying tax.....

Australia is far from it.....the US is much more likely to be bankrupt.....their debt levels are enormous compared to us. And our GDP to Debt is still low...and improving....

 

As far as dropping interest rates are concerned were already scrapping the barrel and might hit rock bottom by the end of the year.
And for countries that went down that path of QE they are struggling to unwind it.
Much of the problems in other countries was caused by politicians that could not make hard decisions and were to concerned about getting re elected.
Its to late to make reforms once the economy starts to collapse.
The market is already dealing with it in its own way.
Everyone at this point just becomes a passenger in a train wreck.

 

U should also mention the cash only tradies as well. Sure everyone has met a trade who would do cash and give a sharper rate. My elderly neighbour once had a massive tree in his backyard removed, quoted 5k by a few guys but some Non-asian guys gave him a much better rate almost 1k less but he needed to do cash only. Guess who he asked to do the job.?

There's also a lot of unaccounted for $100 bills which make up almost a quarter of bills in circulation But we hardly see being used. Of course quite a bit is probably is involved in criminal activities but a lot of cash is used by construction, hospitality and labour-hire sectors, paying workers in cash to avoid income tax. Then there's the pensioners who stash them under their mattress so they can continue to get their pension.

Lastly there's been mention here of property investors who don't declare their rental income and have never been bothered By ato.

Gst is also limited as with cash u can buy and sell goods without attracting get since it's not technically on the books.

Everyones sucking at the teat. Good thing iron ore prices are through the roof now, we may even get a budget surplus soon. But if commodities prices have another collapse like few years back it's going to be very very painful especially if RBA only has 1‰ left to lower

 

Indeed although many coastal inhabitants have it down pat.

 

Black economy is a extremely small percentage of the over all economy.

Having travelled the world we are definitely one of the least I have seen in terms of cash or back economy.

 

Why the need to "unwind"? They can just keep it forever, or just replace the maturing bonds with new ones. As long as inflation is kept low, no problemo!

Welcome to the whole new world of Modern Money!

In the video below, just replace USA with AUS, et voilà!

 

The first step is the political system, and that change is already in place.
Counter balance is the increasing population, though this is just a delay given the demographics.

Then will come demands from welfare and renters.
Ask someone who lives in Greece if it's easy to evict a renter.
And there is a growing idealistic movement that want the gov to legislate in some way against empty house or bedrooms.
Here it' still a whisper, but momentum is growing.

I don't think the US will go in that direction before Australia does.

 

Well, at least in the US you have the right to your property by force, a squatting former tenant, no problem...