Calling Property Bears (Bulls excuse)

No those people are going to be owner occupiers, mums & dads, nurses and fire fighters. The majority of the market. I think your confused with who actually drives the property market to new heights.

The same people you think are the big bad greedy investors, are a lot of the same people you think will then have a chance to buy and live on the fringes, it makes no sense.

 

Sure looks like it was property investors to me. Investing loan approvals at one point were equal with upgraders. Madness.

Lets not forget that we started lending to foreign buyers more than first home buyers for a period. Again driving the market from FOMO or irresponsible lending isn't the same as fundamentals.

 

Property has always had Fomo and emotional rational behind it. That’s why it’s so good.

 

Where's inflation coming from? If the government and RBA can somehow cause serious inflation then short the AUD because it'll be heading down way below 50c.

 

Have you read or watched any of Phil Anderson’s stuff around 18-20yr cycles? In his view we are in the mid cycle slow down where we are in for a recession, lasting around 2yrs to 2021, in the mid cycle slow down land doesn’t really get affected all that much, as the stock market takes a beating. After 2021 we would see a large run up in asset prices to mid next decade or 2026, before a large down turn/decline. He’s predicted the previous ones Within his 18yr cycle by within a year or two. 1991, 08/09 and now predicting 2026. His book is the power in the land

 

EDIT* Fred Harrison’s book the power in the land.

 

I have read Philip J Anderson's books about banking and the 18 year property cycle. It is where i got much of the confidence to talk about a 2019 recovery in the market on this blog. The cycle says that there will be an explosive run from now to 2026, followed by a 4 year correction. What we just went through was a predictable 2 year mid cycle correction, including a central bank over reaction. I haven't read Fred Harrison's book though - will check it out.

 

According to below, Anderson suggests that the mid cycle correction would occur 20/21 lagging the US recession and continue to peak in 2026.

Will The Aussie Housing Market Peak in 2026? - LF Economics

"A recession or near-recession will occur in the US around 2020/21, and may wind its way into Australia"

“This means the land market cycle began anew, with a mid-cycle correction predicted for 2020/21, arriving at a peak around 2025/26“

"This is not to say that Anderson denies that a bubble in land prices exists; there is, but will only grow larger after the 2020/21 recession or near-recession clears."

So is he wrong about the 20/21 correction (which allegedly just ended) or is he wrong about the peak in the 2026?

 

So the cycles, whatever the length to fit the data, still means rising nominal prices?

 

We will see in retrospect I guess. Apra’s intervention may have altered the timelines

Either way, if he’s right. It’s a good time to be in property. Sustainable or not

 

Not if the correction he was discussing hasn't happened yet. He seems to suggest rebound will happen post recession. Or are you moving this to pre-recession? And the "boom" will still happen to 2026 (or 2024 if we are advancing the timeline) and power through the current global macro situation and a potential change in government by that time period?

 

A couple things to that, I’m not buying in Sydney or Melbourne and also using renovations to cushion My property values, so I’m not really relying on any timeline or trying to time the market, as you seem to be wanting to do. I’m also planning to hold onto them for the next 30yrs so am not worried about short term 20% corrections. Each to their own

 

I have a question to @Timb89 I don't know very much about properties and I'm just learning from this forum, What do you recommend we do?

From what I read about your post are just complains (if that is the right word) but no solutions. I was taught to find solutions no problems.

 

I don't know how you plan to find solutions if you can't find problems. What are you even solving then?

 

This should be the Troll post of the year seriously.

You didn't answer my question anyway.

 

The answer every buyer wants.

What, when and where to buy.

Existing owners also have a sell option.

 

From my experience the one's who are hell bent on answering this question are usually the ones who have accumulated the least wealth through lack of action.

 

Learn from other experienced investors mate. Ignore those who have no interest ( and zero knowledge) in wealth creation. As well as zero runs on the board.

 

This is an almost identical repeat of the hijacking of “the property downturn is over” thread. It went for about 8 pages before I suspect people started using the “ignore” function for certain posters....