Buyer sentiment dropping?

Latest data demonstrates listings continue to fall respectively in Agnes Water, Hervey Bay, NSW Hunter Region, QLD Sunshine Coast and QLD Central Coast:

SQM Research - Property - Total Property Listings - 4677

SQM Research - Property - Total Property Listings - 4655

SQM Research - Property - Total Property Listings - Hunter Region

SQM Research - Property - Total Property Listings - Sunshine Coast

SQM Research - Property - Total Property Listings - Queensland Central Coast

Australia is a huge continent though so I'm sure that in some postcodes/regions listings are increasing.

 

My take is reopening means drop in demand from urban city folk who were planning to get a vacation home but now they can start flying overseas and go on cruises.

 

Let's see.

Open borders will only increase demand imo.

 

Vacation homes lol?

The regional boom is being driven predominantly by people (owner occupiers) moving to the regions to live on a full time basis not people buying vacation homes.

That's why vacancy rates are so low in the regions: the vast majority of properties are being bought by owner occupiers.

 

this is the analysis I like to see. Also coupled with APRA buffer limits I can see the lower end markets getting a continued boom whilst the upper end markets drop off entirely due to oversea lures.

 

why?

 

Inbound migration + foreign investors, pretty simple.

 

Interstate Buyers were previously buying big in regional seaside holiday towns like Byron Bay and up the Sunshine Coast, some as a standby residence to move into to avoid protracted southern state city lockdowns.we have owners who change their PPOR address to reflect qld residence they own, so they could live freely here whilst Sydney and Melbourne having their lockdowns. Some have been caught out by neighbours reporting but those few are just the tip of the iceberg. Now that southern states are reopened fully, those same wealthy folk won't need their local holiday homes anymore, I expect lots of stock to come back on the market and put pressure on prices.

 

QUOTE="Kangabanga, post: 1075443, member: 618"]Interstate Buyers were previously buying big in regional seaside holiday towns like Byron Bay and up the Sunshine Coast, some as a standby residence to move into to avoid protracted southern state city lockdowns.we have owners who change their PPOR address to reflect qld residence they own, so they could live freely here whilst Sydney and Melbourne having their lockdowns. Some have been caught out by neighbours reporting but those few are just the tip of the iceberg. Now that southern states are reopened fully, those same wealthy folk won't need their local holiday homes anymore, I expect lots of stock to come back on the market and put pressure on prices.[/QUOTE]

The phenomenon to which you refer...the wealthy having and using multiple addresses to avoid lockdowns...would represent less than 5% of the market across regional Australia.

So that's only a very small part of the supply/demand equation; it's basically irrelevant in view of exerting any price pressures.

The dominant factor in the supply/demand equation will be unleashed in the coming months though...in terms of massive aggregate demand...when people from Sydney and Melbourne are again free to move around.

Think regional Australia is booming now?

Just wait until January/February...

 

The phenomenon to which you refer...the wealthy having and using multiple addresses to avoid lockdowns...would represent less than 5% of the market across regional Australia.

So that's only a very small part of the supply/demand equation; it's basically irrelevant in view of exerting any price pressures.

The dominant factor in the supply/demand equation will be unleashed in the coming months though...in terms of massive aggregate demand...when people from Sydney and Melbourne are again free to move around.

Think regional Australia is booming now?

Just wait until January/February...[/QUOTE]
Fomo is the main driver. Who knows how long that can last.

Maybe, but then why has there been unprecedented growth across all if of australia despite state and international borders being shut? It was subdued pre covid with all borders open. Clearly closed borders have not held buyers back. This is all from low rates and fomo off the back of covid driven stimulus. No idea where it will end up, but when the stimulus is removed?

 

Fomo is the main driver. Who knows how long that can last.

Maybe, but then why has there been unprecedented growth across all if of australia despite state and international borders being shut? It was subdued pre covid with all borders open. Clearly closed borders have not held buyers back. This is all from low rates and fomo off the back of covid driven stimulus. No idea where it will end up, but when the stimulus is removed?[/QUOTE]

Growth across regional Australia has been driven by people moving to regional Australia (people moving from the capital's to the regions and also people moving from expensive regionals to more affordable regionals).

Agents across regional Australia have said that approximately 75% of buyers are paying cash too.

So APRA's intervention and possible rate rises won't have much of an impact across regional Australia.

 

Growth across regional Australia has been driven by people moving to regional Australia (people moving from the capital's to the regions and also people moving from expensive regionals to more affordable regionals).

Agents across regional Australia have said that approximately 75% of buyers are paying cash too.

So APRA's intervention and possible rate rises won't have much of an impact across regional Australia.[/QUOTE]
So why has sydney gone through the roof? Not migration based. And my suburb in melb has jumped 20pct this year. There is a general frenzy because of covid, so when it goes away so does most of the fuel for the boom. And if migration geta turbo charged again, theyll mostly be going to big cities as per usual.

 

The phenomenon to which you refer...the wealthy having and using multiple addresses to avoid lockdowns...would represent less than 5% of the market across regional Australia.

So that's only a very small part of the supply/demand equation; it's basically irrelevant in view of exerting any price pressures.

The dominant factor in the supply/demand equation will be unleashed in the coming months though...in terms of massive aggregate demand...when people from Sydney and Melbourne are again free to move around.

Think regional Australia is booming now?

Just wait until January/February...[/QUOTE]
And where did u get that 5percent figure..

 

And where did u get that 5percent figure..[/QUOTE]

Got any data that says the figure is more than 5%?

No?

Then I say the figure is 5%.

Know anything about Law?

Didn't think so...

The burden of proof rests with the prosecution (that's you). The defendant (that's me) has nothing to prove.

So let me know when you have some data that proves the figure is higher than 5%

 

Got any data that says the figure is more than 5%?

No?

Then I say the figure is 5%.

Know anything about Law?

Didn't think so...

The burden of proof rests with the prosecution (that's you). The defendant (that's me) has nothing to prove.

So let me know when you have some data that proves the figure is higher than 5% [/QUOTE]
I was the one who originally proposed that it's mostly people buying holiday homes at holiday regional towns that have the big booms. So I'll say 90percent are such people , now the burden of proof is on you to say its not 90percent.

The thing is u don't have any data as well so u can pluck any number u want like 5percent. Hence if u don't have data don't put a number on it.

 

I was the one who originally proposed that it's mostly people buying holiday homes at holiday regional towns that have the big booms. So I'll say 90percent are such people , now the burden of proof is on you to say its not 90percent.

The thing is u don't have any data as well so u can pluck any number u want like 5percent. Hence if u don't have data don't put a number on it.[/QUOTE]

Anyone one with even half a brain understands that COVID lockdown dodgers (people living at multiple addresses) constitute a very small proportion of property owners in Australia.

It's actually probably less than 3%...

Simple logic (Year 10 level).

Unless you can prove otherwise of course?

 

I read an article over the weekend that there have been three quarters in the last thirty years where property prices have increased by 8% or more. Two of them were this year when the borders were closed.

I'm not convinced that foreign buyers are driving the market.

Furthermore, Sydney is up there with some of the most expensive cities in the world. If someone is making a lot of money in San Francisco as a software engineer, or in London in the financial sector, for example, then it is probably not worth relocating to Australia as their income will fall.

 

Sure. But Australia is bigger than Sydney. And most of it is much cheaper than Sydney.

 

Price in Sydney is still rising... as least in the area I am observing... FOMO is still here. 25% increase quoted by the media is an underestimate. The houses in some part of Sydney has gone up more than 40%. We are talking about mid ring suburbs here not the top end market. The agents we just talked to last week have received better offers than they would receive in the lockdown. This is posting a huge downside risk IMO... Sydney will be vulnerable to interest rate rise driven by inflation, policy change etc.
sigh... price won't be going up forever, but people are still rushing in...

 

Brisbane def not following the trend!