BUSINESS Australian house values have fallen $36 billion so far this year

Australian house values have fallen $36 billion so far this year

First annual fall in house prices since 2012.

 

Sounds like a lot, but so does the stockmarket on a bad day. Carry on.

 

A few days ago at ASX 2 days worth.


The Australian share market dropped $60 billion in value as markets throughout Asia followed United States investors in a mad scramble for the exits.

Key points:

• The local stock market has fallen by about $90 billion in two days
• The trend is likely to continue on Wednesday
• Every sector on the ASX 200 has been affected

 

When prices decrease by 1-2% after running up 72% people don’t notice that it is just a natural movement. It’s still up 70%.

Meh. Would become interesting after a correction is 40%+. Otherwise it’s boring. If it ever eventuates.

P.s. numbers are all made up.

 

Our Australian Property market as a whole is very likely to drop at least 10-20% over the next 1-3 years.

due to multiple reasons, including but not limited to

1. Tighter lending
2. Raise to Interest and IP loans
3. Bank rate rise
4. slow down to developements
5. a very high average property debt repayment per loan

I would be surprised if we see anything less than a 8-10% drop within 2 years from today.

 

10 to 20 seems to be the most common figures So will be at least that most likely as what eventuates is very often driven by whatever is the most popular media narrative

 

Where? Just once can we pretend that there's more than 1 "Australian property market"

There are many markets in Australia that are actually increasing. So the below statement is very basic and broad.

 

Mate your right and your very wrong.

understanding how our market works is so valuable so I wouldn't say its basic, as it requires a lot of variable knowledge to understand, the broad term of saying "its going down" is basic if uneducated.

secondly, your right there are multiple markets and inside of that there are markets that are very specific.


if you do not find value in the above statement that is fine, but me understanding that statement is hugely valuable to myself and has taken work and time to understand.

So has understanding and assessing individual markets which even though its specific I wouldn't say its more valuable or less as both moving parts together advance my investing.


If you want specific advice on a market be happy to answer Codie if you gave me a property case study.

 

That’s pretty much what you said? You said it’s going to drop as a whole of 10-20% (implying the entire market)

I’m just quoting you not putting words in your mouth haha.

No thanks on the advice front, my properties are doing very well and even seen an increase on purchase 6months ago of 13%, and continuing to rise.

So I adisagree with your broad statement of the market as a whole decreasing Is all. I see pockets of Sydney & Melbourne decreasing, and certain types of stock around the country staying flat.

Many other exciting markets & opportunities out there that will rise in the next 3yrs

 

If a method of DD is working for your investing then great. I've often placed alot more emphasis on specific markets as i believe they can actually be quite disconnected to how the broader market is performing.

I've found the broader market can actually be very deceptive and misleading at times.

 

I'd be interested to know how you came to this conclusion. How much experience have you had in the property market? Have you seen more than one cycle? Or, is this all just theory that you've learnt at Uni?

Over the next few years, yes, we WILL see drops in Sydney & Melbourne. The rest of the Country, I'm not so sure. In fact I'd suspect, that just like other cycles, as Sydney & Melbourne come off the boil, you will see increases in other markets, and still others that remain flat.

That would be refreshing, but I can't see it happening any time soon.

 

Yawn!

 

Not a lot of money in the big scale Australia wide the ASX can blow that out the back door on any day-If your invested in Brisbane how are your properties going,as some people think sky-diving and bungee jumping are safe ,and I think the market will mainly look for signals from the Government ..

 

I agree, there will be 100% growth in specific ares and there are always opportunities

but all I am stating is there will be certain markets that drop and also we are in a property decrease overall. but there is always deals.

 

So to be completely fair I have only lived through the 08 crash but have run a property investing company and currently operate a Financial planning business, I have an understanding of how our economy functions and how each property is worth what it is worth and also the variables that would dictate it to go up or down. (of which is more than simply amount of buyers)

Due to this I can come to the understanding of the past performance and the fact every indicator is very clearly showing a correction, I could write an in-depth very long justification for my reasoning but to simplify.

-Tighter lending
-Rate rise
-no major income growth
-no major contributing factors (population growth or decrease)
-a high debt per working australian (comparatively)
-many more factors

In saying this, lets say Australia went and changed immigration laws this could dramatically affect housing prices within a year, or if the population of our country went through a 10% loss then this dramatically affects property prices, there are so many variables for extremes but overall I am fairly sure we will see a dip overall of this.

and I also think its a important thought to explore and ponder and it leads to so many more important thoughts to be played out.

 

Just to clarify not 100% growth, 100% that I agree

 

I would have thought population growth is a fairly major contributing factor

 

that is what I am saying, all of those are big factors

I am saying all of those are factors, plus many more.

sorry if that was not clear.

 

That's not what you said here.

Aha, I thought so, but I have to be very concerned that someone who's whole experience with property is so limited is running a 'property investing company'.

 

Um? do not see your point? I said as a whole? I think your reading what I stated the wrong way, overall it will drop at least 8-10% but more likely 10-20%



Use to run, I currently only operate a financial planning firm, and your right in the sense you cannot buy experience but you can learn from others experiences and everything you and I skater is piggy backed of others, that's literally why our society/sciences/etc etc work.

your own quote is succeed or learn, I think someone with this mantra would be a little more open to people striving for more.

Look to be fair, I have not have the success of say nathan birch but also I have developed a really good way to simplify most things to make it easy to understand for people, I think this provides value for more so the majority than the people who already are onto their 15th IP.