Brisbane - when will be peak of current cycle?

It seems like Brisbane property, particularly BCCC region is starting to rip up (about time, we've been waiting for over a decade). At least this is what I'm seeing in the data (sqm, domain), news, friends and family on the ground, agents and chatter here. Happy to be told otherwise.

No one knows the future but given what we know today:
- all time low interest rates
- vaccine maybe ready in 12 months for mass use
- shifting demographics, interstate migration etc
- Brisbane city infrastructure projects coming online

... what's your educated guess (aka shot in the dark) on when the peak of this cycle will be and why do you think that?

My guess is H1 2022 or H2 2022 as borders will be fully reopened to Vic and Greater Sydney for at least 12 months, families from down south have affairs in order, may have rented for 12 months in Brisbane and ready to buy and FOMO will be kicking in.

Just putting it out there for discussion.

Disclosure: Holding 1 IP in inner ring Brisbane since 2009.

 

That is a long time to hold since 2009. But I think it will come eventually.
Are we there yet? - movie, sounds familiar.
If the cycle is anything to be believed - it is usually 24 months till boom ends.
We are no where even boom. Probably at the beginning of upswing. 8 o'clock.

 

I agree all though things are heating up we are no where near FOMO levels which is needed to get a boom going, if we continue they way it’s going I think 5-6% PA will happen and double digit in some area’s.

Still very happy with this growth but wouldn’t constitute a boom in my eyes. Would need double digit growth for Brisbane as a whole to call it a boom.

 

Was just before the floods - 2009 was at/close to peak prices.

Had you bought in 2011-13, would've made a sizeable gain already - 20-30%....or more if you picked the bottom.

 

Thanks for the perspective, looking forward to the next few years for Brisbane

 

Bris is something everyone seems to wait for, feel sorry for the sods waiting for Logan etc to gentrify....you need a few lifetimes...lol

Now, it may be ticking up, but, as before, the dry spell has broken.

I am not impressed by how the borders have been handled, so I plan to completely exit and never invest again seeing the govt is so willing to standby and watch business be decimated and keep people out.

 

I’ve only been invested in Brisbane for 3yrs and have seen 10-15% growth so it’s not as long in the tooth for me as some (some still waiting a decade if you bought units in a poor area)

I feel like it’s different this time, low stock, huge enquire’s and turn outs, low interest rates, and an influx of interstate interest may all that we need to finally kick things off.

 

Where abouts my property in Kallangur has barely gone up at all in 2 years even with the uni being open I think Kallangur might be to slow for me I have seen others selling for the same reason.

 

Logan gentrify? Well you certainly haven't been visiting in the last millenium, so i am surprised you had a border issue. Much of logan regional areas are greenfield sites getting built out. There is some re-zoning near transport (sometimes called transport oriented development). None of which has anything to do with gentrification.

To get gentrification you really need to be in London or somewhere where the inner city slums are being overtaken by new structures for the rich. Go to London, the borders are open . Just wear a mask and don't overwhelm the NHS

 

Kallangur is a little far out, I think the “new uni” may have sucked a few people in thinking this is a major growth driver. Not to say you won’t see growth during the next up-cycle as a rising tide lifts all ships, it’s just not going to be the first to go. Right now it’s inner/middle Brisbane moving or area’s with owner occupier demand. It will ripple out eventually.

 

“Gen·tri·fied, gen·tri·fy·ing. to alter (a deteriorated urban neighborhood) through the buying and renovation of houses and stores by upper- or middle-income families or individuals, raising property values but often displacing low-income families and small businesses”

Simply put i see gentrification as a higher income class moving into an area due to being priced out of surrounding area’s, hence Gentrification moves outwards or further away from sought after lifestyle hubs and amenities.

Brisbane doesn’t have an affordability problem just yet, including within 12km of the CBD, so I see Logan a long way off “Gentrification” as well.

 

Yes I think the uni was way over hyped I’ve heard of a few people selling there Kallangur property’s don’t get me wrong it will do ok but lag way behind other suburbs in the area I think it has a bit of a stigma attached to it as well I do not understand why seems fine to me and speaking to people in the area they love it there.

 

On an international scale - Brisbane is very affordable. Looking from the lens of a foreigner looking to buy into lifestyle and proximity to jobs.

 

Prices - Housing prices - OECD Data

Here is the data where you can compare. Very details if you compare the G20 countries.

 

If Brisbane is to peak this cycle, how much further would it go from current level ? another 30% surely is not too realistic is it? its been a very long wait

 

20% from here is very possible.
There isn't really any big driver to push Brisbane property price up to 30%.
You can blame it on the current lacklust government.
Bunch of oxygen thieves.

 

Taken you this long to work it out, I'd be more worried about what will happen in the future when the federal funding runs dry.

 

Markets within markets, some will rise a little, some a lot. Quality properties in high demand suburbs could surge by at least 30% IMO. In addition to lowest ever interest rates, low levels of supply, open borders and vaccines, I’d flag the interstate migration from major southern states as a real potential driver to price growth (selected Suburbs only).

Only time will tell.

 

I bought two houses in Brisbane for my personal portfolio in 2013 and 2014 respectively and they've both made approx 40% each since then so you're right on the money. Plus the rents have increased by around $70 a week on one and $60 per week on the other so with current interest rates they're well positively geared now.

- Andrew

 

Yeah the good ol' days. Got in in Xmas 2012 and gorged myself till Xmas 2013. Both Brisbane (BCC) and GC were brimming with blue-chip opportunities. I made a relentless 5 buys in 12 months and if not for the banks saying no more, I would've kept going. There was zero doubt in my mind it was good buying.

I was in the zone with pure killer instinct. I've lost count of how many contracts I was making offers on. Got so adept at it I didn't bother having my solicitor view them first. I'm talking 2/3 contracts a week and to the point my fellow colleagues at work were rather ****ed at me using the printer and spending time on the phone to agents.

The only regret (and its a massive one) was I missed out on a house (in the GC) that was on the oceanside of Broadbeach. Mortgage repo. Freaking bank stuffed me around because the house had a granny flat which in my eyes was a plus. They didn't see it that way. I could've picked it up for mid-late $600s and its now worth at least $1.5m. Still hurts today.