QLD Brisbane Suburbs with Double Digit Growth

Perception. Likelihood just as great People sort of forget and must flood areas highly desirable. Opportunity to get foot-in-the-door also some places have been rectified so for example around Rosalie a lot of the houses have been jacked up

 

But took spillover from blue chip Clayfield. Also train. Also very very pretty Leafy streets with beautifully renovated Queenslanders.

 

Anything north of the river has an automatic 'closer' loading. You can't do 'as the crow flies' and not consider the river. There is some psychology associated with crossing to the south of the river away from Brisbane.

 

Based on what's not on the list I think Red Hill and Kelvin Grove are ones to really watch - although they have been going up anyway.

 

There has been a number of articles ,especially cover stories devoted to Rocklea about floods..

The impact value wise happened straight after the flood waters went down,and people who thought they were covered insurance wise found out they were not,and that's where the problem's started ..

The bottom line was anyone could have bought in Rocklea for 175k in march 2011 after the floods,and its taken a long time to come back to pre flood values ..West End is just as dangerous Dutton Park - Yeronga -Annerley lower Moorooka all the same ..Only my opinion but it will happen again ,only this time everything is covered with Suncorp ,and from what I saw on the ground after the Flood they were one of the few that paid out..The people I know who were covered by Suncorp with their ppor and took the cash payment offer did very well,--Stand alone mug investors like myself with no rents for 7 months plus zero insurance or government payments and rebuilding cost ,was a total different outcome..

 

I find this sentiment very hard to understand, and it is really just a perception from someone based in the North. Do you concede it is just a thing that north side people think?

 

That is just how Brisbane is. New Farm is a lot further from the CBD than South Brisbane or Northern West End. Tenneriffe even further. But New Farm is much more expensive and Tenerrife is extreme (by BNE standards). If the river wasnt a barrier, that would not be the case. There are other examples too. Yes people on the North do find it an effort to go south of the river (and vice versa) but the CBD happens to be on the North. So the northside is more engaged with the CBD. There have been many years passed for Fairfield to get more expensive than Bardon but the river is a barrier.

 

That is absolutely correct.

I don't agree with some of these suburbs growth.

Some of these have some new stock which is distorting figures.

Lots of amateurs on this site. They only want to hear what they want to hears.

Most of Brisbane is doing anywhere from 5-10%....in the inner and middle suburbs...steady but nutin stellar. Some idiots are posting figures of $1m plus on 400sqm.....but they fail to factor in the cost of build and when this is factored it is more like 100-200k profit. Fools gold really.

 

Here is a comparison. Sydney. North of the harbour is cheaper. A similar artefact. I noticed the rents on the CBD side of the bridge are much more expensive, even if the same distance away. Same goes with the commercial space north of the harbour.

 

Could be because the south side is a more desirable place to live for 18-40 year olds, and this demographic make up a sizable majority of renters.

The north side is known as the North Snore for a good reason.

 

Yes it could be tomorrow or it could be in 100 years it could also be in 300 years no one knows however there is a probability.

Like you said it is 1% chance or 1 in a 100, having 2 major floods in the last decade from a probability point of view could mean it might not happen for 200 years.

Take an extreme example you have a 100 side dice and you landed on 1 (it flooded) the chance of it rolling 1 is 1 - 100. However if you rolled a 1 the chance of it getting 1 again is still 1 - 100 however the probably or getting 1 again is far less.

Same situation if you rolled any number from 2-100 the chance is still 1 - 100 however the probability is actually going to be worse as you are now more like 1 - 99 probability.

Full disclosure I don't have a property in Rocklea or a flood effected property but this is purely understanding chance vs probability.

 

It's easily summed up as follows: probability has no memory.

 

Agree, I like your empirical data you presented, that's all that's presented, yet some will find details upon details....instead of seeing the BIG picture instead.
I noticed some of us concentrate on the small DETAILS and some of us look at the BIP PICTURE ahead.
I am the kind of person who analyses details BUT really prefers to look and concentrate on the BIG picture ahead....
It's like most that look at property say in the past or next 5 years (if passive investors), I look at it for at least 30 years or even better never to sell, as that's my plan to be truly financially wealthy from RE.
So I like this article and especially the median price graph as it tells 1000 stories....looking at RE in Australia (in four states) in the last 46 years:
Successful Ways | Australia’s median house price data
If we look at that BIG PICTURE context and decide on our time horizon all those little details become less relevant for me.
I wonder, what timeframe do most investors have in mind here?

 

Explain that to the people who bought in flood areas after the 1974 flood believing it would not happen again in their lifetime.........
Marg

 

I would argue that with better mitigation and risk management many areas wouldn't have flooded in 2011.

An obsession with preserving water which is an expensive commodity, a long drought and plans for a water grid were the latent factors which lead to much of the flooding. Dam releases were far too late, easy to say in hindsight but that is what risk assessments are for.

 

I agree many focus on a timeframe that's too short however its also troublesome to focus on a very long timeframe when most need growth asap to leapfrog off to expand .

Another thing I strongly try to focus on is value vs price. I think most ppl struggle to identify value and just look at the sale price and median price as the main indicators for 'cheap' or 'expensive'. I think all my purchases have been over the median price .

 

They can believe what they want, the probability wasn't likely but still had the same chance each year.

If I threw a 20c coin and it landed on heads for the last 20x the chance of it landing on tails is still 50% but the probability is a lot higher. Doesn't mean that it wont/cant land on heads.

We could be talking next week about a flood or Brisbane might not have a flood for 500 years long after our time. Only two things in life are certain... Death and taxes.

 

I agree, timeframe and duplication relies on some capital growth along the way, but some may choose to be passive investors, not many start with renovations or developments.
I too look at value or where I can create value, so I look at the median value for the suburb, then I analyse the streets, than the actual property. So I paid above the median for one suburb but I still believe I paid 'fair' value. The reason was, it was the best unit in the block, to be renovated - opening between kitchen and living area, with a garage (only 3 had garages our of 12), NE and N aspect, with views, location 2 minutes walk to beach, art deco. The median was $750K at the time for the suburb, I paid $790K, but that $40K justified 'fair' price at value, as, after the Reno it was valued at $1.2K - 1.3K and huge yield increase too. I call these my golden goose, that lays the golden eggs, as I never plan to sell those!
Our PPOR was actually bought below the median at the time, good buy at 2008 after GFC, hence no bids at auction other than ours, and first and only owners of 60 years or so had to sell (elderly and had to move to nursing home). Again this was good value, below median, as views, location, pool, amenities, renovation and of course time in the market since then added heaps of value....
So if I can buy at 'fair' price at value or slightly below the median, and then ADD further value that's now most important to me. However, I think that comes with experience and years and awareness of what strategy to adopt to suit each person's journey.
Now I prefer fewer hotels than many houses like in Monopoly game, but had to starts as passive investor with many houses first....

 

Will be interesting to see what this one sells for.

20 GRISTOCK ST Coorparoo Qld 4151 - House for Sale #128981406 - realestate.com.au

 

Sold 921k. Somewhat older home, very average specs on a 405sqm block. No pool, no views.


https://www.realestate.com.au/property/416-ferguson-rd-seven-hills-qld-4170