QLD Brisbane/QLD Overhype

I think we're gradually on our way back to circa 2012 as will the rest of Aus over time. I'd hate to see a crash. A slow decline we could probably all adjust to

 

Post the graph if you can

 

While I haven't noticed drops in pricing yet my way, the traffic through at each open is noticeably less than earlier in the year.

 

Yeah, the sale prices haven't yet really gone backwards, just staying fairly constant. My guess is the shortage of house stock overall

 

Does anyone know of free software that would let you input data to create a graph? My dad recorded a lot of data from investment mags and other sources up till about 2006. I'd love to create some graphs from our own data.

Whitecat - although I don't have a graph for you, looking at the data, 2009, 2014/2015 and 2016 are the only significant clearance rate changes where you can see something is taking place. Some of the values prior weren't from Corelogic and Domain as I don't think they presented it the same way as they do now , during the naughties. The rest of the values show fairly random ups and downs without a significant pattern to it.

 

Excel?

 

Not free

 

would you mind detailing your calcs and how they derive from domains and corelogic?

 

Went to an auction yesterday that had 7 registered bidders. Prop sold 15k over reserve . Average property in average outer area. Also property was not displayed in domain/Rea results.

Also the pool of results from these figures is to small IMO to draw any logical conclusion from in regards to what way the market is heading.

Time on the ground at opens is best indicator

 

Maybe clearance rates aren't so good because word has spread that it's Brisbanes "turn" to boom and vendors are pricing accordingly trying to get a bigger bite of the cherry?

 

Never taken much notice of the Auction clearance rates in Brizzy or outer areas. For me it doesn't really reflect the true state of the market. Unlike Sydney or Melbourne the Brisbane market is top heavy in private treaty.

Agree with special order, time on ground at opens, people count through the doors

 

Judging by this forum a busy auction in an outer suburb probably just means it was full of Sydney folk.

Rents are starting to drop It feels like, though can't find any stats on that. The big Apartment glut starting to work its magic?

 

Yep I reckon its just starting to filter through now. There's A LOT of new stock(both apartments and townhouses) coming online, not only in the CBD but in suburbs 10kms from the city.

 

It can also work the other way in the cycle,once all these developments finish they start or already have sites in place,which in turn will push up the value range for development sites,area's within west end ect dutton park went up over 75% in 18 months..

 

Certainly a lot round my way in the inner north. Lots going up around Lutwyche, Nundah, Albion, Portside, Newstead. As you have said townhouses as well. With the lack of population growth I don't see how this isn't going to put large pressure downwards on rents Brisbane wide.

 

Actually incorrect, it was mostly Owner occupiers including young FHO and was also won by owner occupiers

I also have one I am taking to market near this area and so far have had 5 groups through and 3 offers, all from owner occupiers and FHO, also have one offer coming from Sydney and the neighbour considering an offer as well, not even listed yet

 

A few months ago I was told that East near and around Bayside that selling was going ok, but no new stock, people were not wanting to sell.

another thought is, Sydney and Mel fired back up, this has to take away from other markets.

I do not think it is going backwards from the things I have looked at.

 

Its interesting how investors place so much emphasis on data/graphs/stats, but the reality is most of this stuff wont even be accurate and actually confuse, due to the fact that the information is lagging behind, data is too broad in terms of timeframe, so you wont know accurately what is happening in a specific area...the stats can show a totally different picture, I see this all the time. Once you understand this you have a much better chance of timing the markets

From my experience the best way to find out what is happening today/now in a particular market is very simple and effective .....phoning many re agents on the ground that are selling and asking the right questions ie volume, days on the market, what is selling, who is buying, what is the trend in the last 3 months and checking out realestate.com this can help especially if you see many properties under contract its a dead giveaway. Once you find out this information you don't over analyse but work with the information and then keep digging.

 

Yep. Bne rents are going to be affected. Even houses ( although not as much as units of course)

 

Have you undertaken this approach with bne @MTR?