QLD Brisbane or Logan or Moreton Bay?

@Shoryuken, I will check buying power with mortgage broker. Serviceabilty usually become an issue once your wife become pregnant. Unless this has been factored in.

Back to your question, I personally prefer BCC but biased. We bought 3Br house in Bracken Ridge in 2013 when the market is flat, and seller depressed for $300k. Rent for $360/week, today is $370/week. Valuation Oct last year was $425k.

The reason we bought is near chermside and airport, and walking distant to Bald Hills station.

Quality of tenant and property manager based on my research back then attract me as well. Dont get me wrong, I may not interview the right property manager back then. Good luck and please ensure your wife keep her stress level and healthy for the baby.

 

Thats right. The fundamentals and current activity and future activity is very different brisbane vs regional qld.
Regionqls are hit by mining much more than brisbane.
Qld regionals are risky at best and the entire 2015 has shown why. 2015 has also shown the legs that brisbane has- that its got much more $ and jobs than mining alone. If that were not true, then brisbane would be talked about in the same vein as we are talking about perth atm.

 

Who wants to live in Mount Druitt? Didn't it have some of the best growth in the Sydney boom?

 

IMO (began my RE journey in SE QLD in 2000) we will need to wait until at least the end of 2016 to find out whether Brisbane has legs or not. We've seen an interstate investor lead rise with the usual FOMO FHB crew. A self fulfilling prophecy perhaps, off the back of a property clock and the assumption that Brisbane will always lag the Sydney market and feel the positive flow on effects.

What cannot be ignored is that like Perth, Brisbane is highly dependent on how the rest of the state is performing. This has always been the case, if the rest of QLD slows so does CG. In the past these downturns would have seen rental yields increase as more folk from regional areas (especially the Sunshine and Gold Coast crowd) find their way into the city for work. I think investor demand and the orgy of apartment construction we've got going on may even negate the effect this time around. If the apartment construction phase hasn't already pushed up rents then I don't see anything much on the horizon that will change that.

The West Perth of Brisbane is the Toowong area and I can tell you earnestly that a lot of mining and gas related contractors/service providers are feeling the pinch. WDS were the first major casualty (700 jobs 70 mil in liabilities and 12 mil owed) After the end of a near 10 year CSG construction boom, coal out of favour and in the doldrums, low oil prices and the subsequent hammering of LNG it's going to take time for the state economy to make a sustainable transition. Baristas and Bellboys aren't going to cut the mustard short term, add Australia wide macroeconomic factors, APRA and the credit squeeze and it's hard to remain bullish on SE QLD RE in the short to medium term. PPOR and longer term? I can't think of a better part of the world to live and invest!

Ok, so now if you'd like to kick me between the legs, stone me and then call me *******, that is fine.

 

Lol.ill take your offer on the last part...
What yo mentioned in tbe remainder of the post...back in 2014/2015 yes defiantly. ..there wqs a lot of apprehension that brisbane just had mining and notbing else and that they had to rely on baristas and bellboys to prop up the economy if mining fell.
Now in jan 2016 after seeing the strenfth in other sectors, i do not believe its baristas and bellboy driven. The markets thinks that as well as can be seen from price gains tat have been constant and sustainable and also near term future predixtions.

 

Yes correct...the druie did have some of the stronest growth when sydney went nuts.
However brisbane is no sydney and thus logan is no druie...as i and others have mentioned before in other posts, i wouldnt count on logan to do the same as druie did. The reason is mainly affordability. Most of sydney was reserved or millionairres during the boom - most couldnt afford anyting oth er than druie and druie equivalents . Not so in brisbane- there are many more afordable suburbs than in sydney and hence people will not have to do the logans in brisbane to the extent they did in sydney.
The above point is going to be the difference imo. Having said that areas like logan will also grow. Just that it will be volatile and short burts here and there. Timing is going to be important. If thats right, then a lot can be made. If not, it might not be so pleasant.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Logan did great in the last Brisbane boom. It was much cheaper than Brisbane proper back then, it is much cheaper right now, why not a repeat of the last boom then?

 

see the demand to supply ratios published on your investment property and realestate.com.au and you will see stronger numbers for a lot of bcc vs logan suburbs.
I want around to see the last brisbane boom so you maybe right..however seeing the numbers and reports this time suggests strong investor and oo demand for inner. Ex hi rise units i cant see the performance of those being less than logan given also whats happened in the melbourne ans sydney booms...where the inner stuff certainly boomed as muxh if not more than outer and in an quicker time as well. Observing similarities in market behaviour is what id look for...and obviously the more similar the markets and the shorter th e time between the observations..the more accurate its goinh to be. Brisbanes last boom was when ..in 2003? Id rather look at say melbourne 2012-15 boom rather than a 2003? in brisbane. Ofcourse syd/mel is different from country town Brisbane, but look at markets within markwts and there lies similarities.

 

Yes, agree with this, but I wouldn't be surprised if parts of Logan move on par with BCC simply due to affordability if nothing else. Will Logan outperform the BCC? Probably not. But what you and I see as affordable in inner city suburbs is possibly still out of the reach for many non-investors looking to buy. Logan and Moreton Bay then become their options..

 

Cyclically Logan has been moving, independently since Q2 2012, that's 4 years of YoY growth and gains of up to 30% (more for Rochdale and Daisy Hill BMV purchases in 2011). So for another 'boom' from current levels we're almost asking for another cycle in an environment that has little to sustain it.

Have a gander at SQM - asking price charts. Across the board I see a peak of sorts around April last year and another spike from September to October as a result of APRA forcing investors to mop up the last of the cheapies (cheapies which had already put on 30%!) . This is the spike that had to keep running IMO, interstate investors ARE the boom.

Would you like to stone or kick? Still a little tender from JDP's beating so I'd prefer a light stoning.

 

More supply for Logan....


"Listed developer and builder Villa World has purchased a major land holding at Logan Reserve, south of Brisbane for $32 million.

This acquisition forms part of the company's fiscal 2016 acquisition spend, which is forecast to be between $145 million and $160 million.

Villa World managing director Craig Treasure said the site could be developed into 726 lots and would start contributing to revenue during fiscal 2017.

"Logan Reserve will be a large-scale, long-term project, which will add approximately 6 years of residential development stock to our South East Queensland portfolio," Mr Treasure said"


"The acquisition of Logan, combined with our recent acquisitions in Strathpine and Arundel, will provide continuity of product in our core markets as our very successful Mt Cotton and Park Vista projects near completion."

Read more: Villa World spends $32m on south east Queensland housing land
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Interesting read...

Terry Ryder's Property Observer "Brisbane Moreton Bay Gaining Strength" article

www.propertyobserver.com.au/terry-ryder/50371-brisbane-s-moreton-bay-gaining-strength-terry-ryder.html?utm_source=Property+Observer+List&utm_campaign=26e43a0222-11_February_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_a523fbfccb-26e43a0222-245595273

 

Did you use a BA

 

Do you know where logan reserve actually is? It is quite a long way out.

The thing about the large geographical footprint of logan is that it is all remarkably different, and very very expansive.

Some first home buyers might well toss up between Yarrabilba and a new estate in logan reserve, but really? Is this what you thinnk Logan is?