QLD Brisbane on the ground

Would it be possible to give another comparison - 10 year return for $100 invested in;
Bracken Ridge/Carseldine vs
Kedron/Stafford vs
Wilston/Grange

Sorry, I'm too much of a cheapskate for a corelogic subscription

 

Wilston/Grange win by a big margin vs Stafford - 50% more capital growth (44% vs 28% in Stafford). Bracken Ridge is worst - just 17%.

This is 5 years by the way. You can manually do a 10 year by digging into sale histories.

 

I disagree. No more investor speculation here than anywhere else (except maybe in apartment sector only).
Investors are coming here as they always do once syd and melb have had their run. Price and yield for investors and value and lifestyle for OOs moving here. For locals the urban renewal is driving significant renovation in the inner suburbs. The city lifestyle has arrived and in a couple of years ... wow you won't believe your eyes. The massive investment in face changing mega projects is not speculation. It is approved and happening right now.
Come up and get on the ground and I will take you around. I'm happy to help.
Otherwise I'm interested in your alternative strategy. Bne is not the only market. Where are you focusing or are you looking at non property options atm?

 

Correct. Strathpine is a good investment but for those who can afford spring hill, get in there right now.

 

I doubt, as more people prefer ideally to live between 5 to 10 Km. If not they would go for 15 Km and max 20 Km. Brisbane is not melbourne or sydney yet, as more people like to live in house than apartments

If rents go down due to apartment over-supply or people buying homes to live, than its perfectly fine, that's quite normal for balanced mode, probably some capital growth could be there than yield. IMO 10 to 20 Km in brisbane will always have demand for ever especially on train and bus routes combined.

 

What's everyone's take on acacia ridge ?

 

Could you please expand on your thoughts bb5

 

Could refer to logan thread also.

 

You have to understand the demand drivers at play.

Premium suburbs (0-5km) - They boom when economy is good, producing multi-millionaires who can splash money on prestige houses. They don't do well when economy is bad.

Professional ring (5-10km) - Always in demand - When the economy is good, their demand comes from people upgrading from outer rings. When the economy is bad, they get demand from inner ring suburbs downgraders. Mostly owner occupiers and properties don't change hands for decades. Good school catchments and possible gentrification targets should bring the best growth.

Outer ring (15km and beyond) - Directly dependent on jobs and state of the economy. Most investors and owner occupiers bought there by stretching out the dollar to the limit. They will generally only follow the boom of inner rings. Nothing wrong in investing there as any investing is good investing in 10-20 years time frame but you have understand that yields are great because banks won't lend to your tenants (no deposit, no credit worthiness) so you are essentially taking the risk on their behalf for a bit of premium and ofcourse banks didn't lend you a whole lot either and hence you are buying there.

For Sydney, you can safely double for the distance values for the rings.

 

Good analysis but diverse demand for 0 to 5kms actually makes these suburbs the most impervious. Take New Farm. The first to rise the last to fall. Only where the properties are significantly above the median (eg massive over the top mansions/very luxurious etc) in this bullseye ring do we see damage from poor economic conditions. Wealthy people ride the storm much better and due to undersupply in this ring, prices hold.
Look at those suburbs from 09 post gfc to 2012ish (when bne was going nowhere, mostly the blue chips only rose very slowly and the middles treaded water.

 

Here is another perspective data from Price Finder which is disagreeing with your data....





Grange
Last 5 years change: 672k-832k, 24%

Wilston
Last 5 years change: 730k-965k, 32%

Stafford
Last 5 years change: 455k-558k, 22%

Bracken Ridge
Last 5 years change: 399k-450k, 13%

 

Past performance does not reflect future performance. Bracken Ridge performed below average over last 15 years in comparison with similar demographic suburbs/ distance to CBD..

 

Its not disagreeing - Price Finder data is most likely until first quarter of the year (judging by total sales in 2016). Corelogic is until the end of last month and captures recent growth in 2016.

I wouldn't expect data sets to be different if exact same data periods are taken.

 

There will always be outliers within the brackets due to suburb specific developments. However, outlier performance will normalise to the neighbourhoods in the long term.

 

I was running data 2011-2015(neglecting 2016) in attempt to bust people's myth on inner suburbs is guaranteed to out perform outer suburbs..

Here we look at longer period, say 15 years... Stafford outperformed Grange/Wilson but performed better than BR. It's really a case by case basis. I have already gone through some examples with Whitecat/JDP on similar discussion..

Grange
Last 15 years change: 249k-832k, 234%

Wilston
Last 15 years change: 310k-965k, 211%

Stafford
Last 15 years change: 162k-558k, 244%

Bracken Ridge
Last 15 years change: 163k-450k 176%

 

Interesting.

How do these number compare to similar Sydney suburbs?

 

I'd rather a 200% increase in Grange than a 200% increase in Bracken Ridge in my pocket.

 

I am "around" Brisbane today and tomorrow. Pre approval sorted. Money to burn!

 

For the same dollar value you could buy 2xBR
....but there are obvious advantages to have 2x BR versus 1xGrange..

 

I did this in another post sometime back comparing few Sydney suburbs....didn't take note comparing to Brisbane though...