Brexit and financial crisis

No just an FX pair at an FX broker, only 500 ounces so about 3k profit aud

 

Prime Minister David Cameron has already announced his resignation, looks like more to follow.

EU referendum: UK's EU commissioner Lord Hill to resign
EU referendum: UK's EU commissioner Lord Hill to resign - BBC News

British Politics in Turmoil as Benn Calls on Corbyn to Resign
British Politics in Turmoil as Benn Calls on Corbyn to Resign

In addition as I guessed before, rating agencies should be making some downgrades next week :

[Ratings agency Moody's has changed the UK's sovereign rating from "stable" to "negative" due to the uncertainty unleashed by the result of the EU referendum]
UK's Credit Outlook Lowered To 'Negative'

Overnight US markets took a big hit -3.4% to -4% across the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq.

The property scene is going to get real ugly in London now, can almost hear the "pop" of one of the biggest property bubbles in the world.

Lastly this is what Alan Greenspan had to say...
Alan Greenspan says British break from EU 'is just the tip of the iceberg'

 

How would you know if UK real property pop and when to get in?

 

No doubt macroeconomically, leaving the EU is a bad thing...there will be more volatility in house prices sure. London will feel the volatility less than others in UK.
Wont crash. Will go down yes, but maybe short lived..most probably stabilisation and sideways after a small-modest drop till there is more certainty as to how this unfolds.
I'm also predicting that there the movement we are beginning to see now in reversing that decision will be futile.

 

Agree with this.

Those thinking a big crash is on the cards, the US crash was mostly due to illegitimate money/financing on deals people literally couldn't afford. A figurative house of cards. This is more about people panicking.

 

Superprime London is insanely expensive, and prices are only justified by foreign buyers spending ever more on houses. If the Russians or Chinese go elsewhere, then they'd have to fall to a level that the locals can afford.

I think that a major crash in London would be very possible.

 

From what I read a lot of mom and pops are highy leveraged with buy-to-let loans that have tax incentives which will be removed(grandfathered) soon in addition to extra stamp duty

Foxtons issues profit warning as Brexit cools London housing market

 

S&P strips U.K.'s AAA credit rating on Brexit vote
The U.K. was stripped of its AAA credit rating by S&P Global Ratings on Monday after British voters last week voted to pull the country out of the European Union. S&P lowered the rating to AA. "In our opinion, this outcome is a seminal event, and will lead to a less predictable, stable, and effective policy framework in the U.K.," S&P said, in a news release. The downgrade also reflects worries about the risks of a "marked deterioration" in the U.K.'s external financing conditions given the country's already elevated gross external financing requirements, S&P said. Competing ratings firms Moody's and Fitch had lowered the U.K. credit rating ahead of last week's referendum.

 

it was lowered 2x degrees too, so from AAA, though AA1 (or AA+) to AA2 (or AA)...?

 

For S&P its AAA -> AA+ -> AA

For Moodys its AAA-> AA1 -> AA2

For Fitch same as S&P AAA -> AA+ -> AA

Credit rating - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

yes a double cut is pretty surprising, usually a single cut is done first then another cut as more economic data presents itself. Somehow this downgrade is affecting the AUD too.

 

Are the Brexiters coming over here?

 

Brexit or not, UK has traditionally been the top country of origin of australian migrants. However in recent years there has been an increase of Chinese and Indians immigrants (this is pretty evident as you stroll around in the CBD areas in Sydney and Melbourne on a weekend.)

Number of residents born overseas as per ABS
Years 2006 2010 2015
United Kingdom 1,153,264 1,192,878 1,207,000
New Zealand 476,719 544,171 611,400
China 203,143 379,776 481,800
India 153,579 340,604 432,700
Italy 220,469 216,303 198 200
Vietnam 180,352 210,803 230,200
Philippines 135,619 177,389 236,400
South Africa 118,816 155,692 178,700
Malaysia 103,947 135,607 156,500
Germany 114,921 128,558 125,900

Dont think brexiters would want to come here, after all brexiting was all about getting back their "independence" from EU. some of the BREMAINers could however be ****** off by the referendum results and decide to come here.

 

Yep. .Brisbane in particular.
Verdict: boom inevitable.

 

No..the brexiters want to stay in their own country and not mix with foreigners. That's why they voted brexit.

Its the remainers that want to travel and explore the world that may increase in emigration numbers.

 

A tad over-exaggerated, don't you think?

One of the reasons they voted to exit was so they can take back control of their own decisions about who is allowed in; and who to keep out...the Euro was telling them who to let in - and how many, and a lot of folks were fed-up with that.

Why do you Leftys always have to use completely hysterical statements in your arguments about social issues; the Detention Centres for our own refugees and illegal immigrants for example; where "atrocities" are being carried out ...I mean; gimmee a freakin' break, will ya's?

They get air con, open gates so they are free to come and go, clothing, three meals per day, medical, education...and so on....some have even set up new businesses....."atrocities"?

But I digress.......

It does not mean they "don't want to mix with foreigners"...Britain has one of the largest multi-cultural populations, and largest tourist (read; Foreigners) levels on Earth.

Their favourite meal used to be roast lamb and Yorkshire Pudd.....now it's Curry!!

They voted to leave for the same reasons as folks here in Aus voted for the Libs in the last Election to some extent; folks here got fed-up with (apart from the economic mis-management and squandering of the surplus into our current deficit) the enormous volume of boats and refugees clogging up the Processing Centres (50,000 under Labor)...and the thousands drowning (1200 that we know of) - in just 6 years of Labor policy...and they got voted out by the fed-up people as a result.

They voted for freedoms; freedoms to choose, freedoms to protect their own borders and so on - it is why so many folks flock to try and live in places like the USA, UK and Aus - we have tremendous freedoms and they need to be protected at all costs from those who would seek to take those freedoms away.

To many folks there; it was more important than the economic aspect of being in the Euro.

 

Further to Bayview's post, if everyone in Brisbane, for example, suddenly decided to decamp for some or all of his reasons (or numerous others that I can't think of right now...), they might find that the Brexiter's had also misappropriated their name....

 

No its not over exaggerated. The UK still has control over who comes in from outside the EU, but people got confused.. nothing to do with refugees, etc. So who are these foreigners they don´t want coming in.. ? French, Spanish, Polish, Germans ? It´s a two way street, the vote to block these nationalities will directly affect millions of Brits who wanted to live and work in Europe in the future. Thousands of jobs will be lost as industries, especially banks, leave the UK and move to Europe. The young, and Londoners, overwhelming voting to stay in the EU. And almost 100% of expats voted to stay of course.

There is a large anti immigrant, parochial element in the UK, mostly poorer, or rural, or older. They are the ones who voted to leave. There was a lot living around where I used to live in London (for 6 years), English flags hanging from the windows, council houses, a lot of crime, they stole 2 of my motorbikes (I caught them after, they didn't go far). Nationalistic fervor is similar everywhere, if you go to Belfast the area of "the troubles" is almost entirely council houses. The more affluent parts of Belfast are fine with each other. People get frustrated with their own failures and inability to adapt and need someone to blame it on (immigrants).
Unfortunately a lot of people assumed the result would be remain and didn't vote. If there was another referendum the result would be different.

The Brexit tragedy (how CNBC refers to it, not just "brexit"), if enacted will go down as a catastrophic event in UK history. Unlike most I am lucky since I have a possibility to get a different EU passport after my British one possibly becomes useless, something tens of thousands of Brits are doing now.

 

Despite the recent hope of central bank stimuli propping up stock markets, the pain on the streets has begun and should show up in economic figures coming out for the next quarter.