Boom time for Australia ?

Our reactions are driven by emotion . In a sense that my starting point when trying to understand how the economy .

We all react emotionally to different news and our reactions determines what happens .

Everyone try’s to understand what happens it terms of “ fundamentals “ but what happens is often so illogical that any attempt to explain things in retrospect is just trying to justify things .

My simple economic prediction is we are about to go into an economic boom time .

Why ?

Anyone else sick of Covid ?

One of the federal politicians who has been held most responsible for the negative implications of Covid and has a negative image just got kicked out of office.

We have also just rejected the climate deniers . Any one who has a vague interest in the economics of climate change will be well aware of how well placed Australian is too take advantage of the opportunities ahead .

So outside economic changes , we have had someone who has had a profound negative emotional impact on many Australians . He was called out as a liar by Macron and rather than be defended , those who know him the best , agreed . One could well argue that all politicians lie , but to have our PM branded as a liar didn’t help our country emotionally and having him removed will help us heal from the last two years and move forward with a more positive attitude , a new sense of direction.

and that will be good for the economy .

Cliff

 

Getting out of Covid should be one good reason for a boom, I think.

 

Its amazing how tribal partisan loyalties are translated to views on economic growth

as if boosting the emission reduction from 35% to 43% will somehow lead to an economic boom lol

 

Cool thought bubble Cliff @See Change

I certainly noticed in the last year how many people seemed to have developed a strong hatred towards him that surprised me. That group must be happy now and as you suggest perhaps good vibes are more than enough to usher in a honeymoon phase economically as well as emotionally.

Unfortunately cynical me says in time the media will turn on Anthony/Labor too and call for blood with any sign of weakness. How long will that be? No idea.

 

There is certainly plenty of opportunity. Instead of suppressing development and prioritising tax breaks and funding to mining and dirty power, promoting and supporting green energy and associated technologies could give Australia some awesome opportunities to value add, instead of just digging stuff out of the ground, and buying back the processed materials.

 

The main "tax break" to mining is the fuel excise rebate - which is available to farmers, miners etc who use their heavy vehicles off road. Considering the point of the fuel excise tax was for road maintenance, this seems fair to me. To my knowledge, labor are not changing this rebate but happy to be corrected on this (greens wanted it removed)

In contrast, "green" energy is already heavily subsidised. And green energy requires storage, which means batteries, which means mining lithium and other rare earths out of the ground (so therefore, these companies will still receive the fuel excise rebate). For the record, you should look up how toxic it is to process these "rare earths", before labelling them green. But i suppose its all good, let those poor malaysians and chinese deal with the human costs of processing the rare earths whilst we sit here in our ivory towers.

I am pro developing low cost energy - solar, hydro, wind, coal, gas, nuclear. But, let the free market figure it out, not bureaucrats.

 

the "free market" has no interest in fixing problems, its primary objective is to make profit. Free market alone will not solve the energy issues.

 

I think it will set off a good long term undercurrent.

However I think short term other macro factors will dictate.

After the GFC, it was China's stimulus that really insulated Australia.

China seem much more conflicted this time to follow the same path.

One thing you have to give China credit for is their ability to take the long term view, where as Western Democracies are all going the other way.

 

Not trying to derail the thead but for the life of me if any government wanted to future proof our nation and invest in great (very green and very cheap when measured over decades) base load energy storage they should stop the focus on lithium batteries and build a few more of these Pumped-storage hydroelectricity - Wikipedia

 

Yeah, the storage via hydro seems quite good, but again, you damage the entire ecosystem there with that infrastructure.

Im not sure on the efficacy of lithium storage. The south australia battery cost $170m, and powers 30k homes for 8 hours. Theres 8 million households in Aus. So you would need roughly 45bn worth of batteries... And im guessing the lithium battery needs to be replaced every 10 years...

 

Actually it might.

I work for an electricity retailer. We'll buy all the renewable energy we can get our hands on as it is cheaper than gas/coal.

 

So what would you propose is better?

If you drink water or flush a toilet using mains water you are already complicit in destroying ecosystems (that damaged the ecosystem of the dam where they are built even if you drink the water long after construction).

The side benefit being that water storage for times of drought is still woefully underdone in a country like ours IMO. If chosen properly (ie no endangered species or significant indigenous sites threatened) I would think the incredibly long lifespan justifies flooding a few valleys.

Nuclear is also compelling but nobody wants it.

 

If it was up to me, i would use nuclear for baseload

Hydro is also fine as a storage option, in my opinion. I was just pointing out that it also has negative environmental impacts (solar, and wind also have negative impacts)

 

Agree nuclear is compelling for base load, problem is lots of people won't touch it. Fear.

Nothing is perfect but the appeal of abundant cheap energy is transformative so all these options are totally worth pursuing IMO.

With enough cheap renewable energy we could clean or desalinate any amount of water to transform our red centre into a global food bowl. We could recycle literally anything including all the plastics that are a blight on the planet. Options are endless.

I wish our leaders would make 50-100year decisions and invest for that kind of future.

 

The potential of the red centre…

 

I’ve just thought of a fantastic idea that will both help our country, our health system and, wait for it, our environment through being being very greenie.

We are a great and vast nation. We love TV. OK, so we instal treadmills and exercise bikes to all Australian lounge rooms. Great for fitness, keeps the weight down and good for cardio.

Then, we attach generators to these apparatuses and generate clean energy for the household.

We will become a super fit nation with less heart and lung disease And we will have super low power bills.

 

reality is that one source isn’t enough.

we do need some battery storage . A system powered by solar / wind doesn’t have the same stability as coal generators chugging along . This was part of the reason why SA had problems . Instability triggered circuit breakers and the whole system stopped .
Battery’s supply the immediate stability .

Pumped hydro will help BUT comes at an environmental cost.

Green hydrogen is also part of the solution.

Bradfield’s Independant Nicolette Boele has worked in the renewable energy field for 25 years . On her website she states that she had more experience working in the renewable energy field than any other candidate in the election . I’m sure if it wasn’t true the liberals would have been quick to point out she was wrong ….

I saw her give a one hour presentation on the renewable economy . It is possible to move to a fully renewable power grid within ( I think ) seven years .

the opportunities out there , are there for the taking .
Cliff

 

You may wish to read some of these and weep at the lost opportunities. I have posted this previously by the way.

https://www.aph.gov.au/Help/Federated_Search_Results?q=CSIRO+energy&ps=10&pg=1

I cannot find the link but I think it was the CSIRO did research on adapting disused mines for the purpose of hydro. I recall there was an interactive map on the locations which could be used for that purpose.

Then there is this which was a mere 14 years ago but, hey, it requires vision to accept and implement.

https://igrid.net.au/resources/index.html

 

I've often said and firmly believe that what drives markets is largely emotional changes in sentiment. The money is there. Regardless of what many say. Our property is affordable. There will always be opportunity, be it in Sydney, Brisbane, Perth etc. The opportunities are there. When and what will bring on massive growth? Many people think they know, but most have been proven wrong over and over again. I don't pretend to know with any great certainty either. Here's what I am confident about,

1. Australia will over time move from strength to strength. We live in a high demand for RE low supply country.
2. Markets will boom again.
3. There is always value somewhere. It may take time for that value to have a dollar sign nailed to it, but the opportunity is there.

I'm always looking to buy the best value I can somewhere. That's the only thing I can control to some extent. After that point, time will take care of the rest.

 

Electro thermal combined with concentrated PV tech is more eco friendly than batteries, is half the price, has no system degredation , fexlible, is ultra high efficient more efficient than pumped hydro, and can be used any where a Solar Farm is located, supplies electricity on demand. Funny thing it is being funded by "climate deniers" I presume OP is gloating about. Angus Taylor has funded a project at Carwarp with the co-operation from Dr Ann Webster, yes a GP who is a National MP who is promoting renewable energy, investing in leading renewable energy by building thermal storage tanks at Carwarp by funding RayGen. But I guess we can forget about that as it doesnt suit some peoples narrow narrative and political bias . It is underground water storage tanks using circulating water due to difference in temperature to drive a turbine.