Australia's 2022 federal election. Predictions on winners and reasons why

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There is diplomatic channels - and there is bagging out in public ... rather they took the diplomatic version

 

No there's not. China's response was so disproportionate that it's clear anything but absolute submission is the only type of relationship they are after. On that basis, no, timid diplomacy would have only fuelled their confidence. This is a band aid that needed to be torn off - painfully now, or at a much higher cost later. Freedom is so cheap to give up but costs so much in blood to earn back. In the name of short term bucks I'm sure you're happy to give it up, but not me. I've got family in Hong Kong and I've seen the real cost first hand.

 

they changed their rule so he can’t challenge until they loose the next election , or that’s what I remember .

If they loose , they need to move forwards not backwards . As has been said , Bill lost the unloosable election . Why would anyone give him another chance .

One good thing about the WA election is that one nation got HAMMERED

cliff

 

A month ago i would have said that ScoMo has it in the bag. I even thought that he might call election early.

But the month is long time in politics and the newest poll puts labour to the lead position. There is no way now that Scomo calls the election early and he actually might loose the 'unlosable' election.

 

I don't think people will change governments in a pandemic, assuming the government has done a reasonable job. If the Feds can complete the vaccine rollout by the end of the year, that should generate enough goodwill to scrape back in. There is a lot to hurt them but Albo has to provide a credible alternative. I don't see that he has done that yet. Another thing that hurt the Libs in WA on the weekend is that we did not see them as a credible alternative. It's important.

 

A couple of months ago Labor looked dead and buried. The next issue that could cause controversy is in regards to superannuation. There seems to be a strong desire around many Liberal backbenchers to defer/scrap the compulsory increase from 9.5% to 12% in 0.5% increments. The Treasurer has also made mention of it.

The argument to defer the increase is that it will come at the cost of wage increases. However, Liberal used the same argument back in 2014 and wages growth has been historically weak since that time. Therefore, if the Liberals do defer super increases then Labor, the super industry and old Labor stalwarts like Paul Keating will come out and use it as ammunition against the government.

I'm not in politics or an advisor but if I was advising the government I wouldn't touch super for now. Wait until the election is over and defer it once it gets to 10%.

 

Late last year I had written off Labor, but two things have changed my mind. The sexual assault allegations and how abysmally they have been handled, and Western Australia.

WA votes very differently between state and fed elections, but what almost all of WA just showed us is they are ok with voting Labor in the right circumstances - even in blue as blue Liberal seats. If even a trickle of the sentiment in the WA state election translates to federal, the Libs are in trouble. They only have 2 seats. Craig Kelly will not be preselected again, and there is a credible independent alternative eyeing off his seat. I think there will be a few more Indies spring up to challenge incumbent libs/nats as well.

Also, half the electorate are women and the PM seems determined to make a lot of them very angry.

Labor's primary vote has improved quite a bit, and Morrison's popularity hasn't sky-rocketed like the Premiers on the back of Covid success.

It's becoming interesting.

 

The battle lines have been set by the ''WA'' outcome-- and lets just wait till the 31 March when the coronavirus supplement of A$150 is due to end..

Then lets look in simple terms very few in morrisons government have ever had to live on a centrelink payment --nor suffer the outrage of ''Centre-link'' debt scandal as i'm unsure of the numbers but there could be above 200 thousands who were caught up in that mess and the appalling mental health system with family breakups some were forced into..

The above are just a few but it seems to me anyone that dares to question the government from a person who by reading his history has never had to skip meals or medications and thinks he knows the answer to everything but has never suffered any of the above..

 

Peter Dutton showing his true colours again. Labor should just have this playing on loop come next election .

No Cookies | Herald Sun

 

No comments about politics.
Flip a coin who will win.
My vote, my choice. Mind my own business.

 

There's a LOT of things he could have worded better ....

Cliff

 

To early to tell. Lots of devious strategy going on, with mainstream media involved which they have picked up from overseas.
As far as real estate is concerned I am worried how things might play out for many hard working Australians especially if we start experiencing some inflationary pressures.
Keeping an eye on global politics and the corporate elites is something I will be watching.

 

Was actually a very clever move. Diverted some attention away from the real issue. Scomo plays this game well, the number of boats in first fleet and then recently the sky news accusations

 

Well - if Laming's forced to go (which he should, if he had any decency) might be a snap election if neither party has a majority.

Sadly, Scotty won't force the pervert out as holding onto power is obviously more important than respect, decency and legalities

 

Individual people are elected.
No-one can force an elected politician out of office - only the electorate at the next election.
The only way he will leave parliament early is if he chooses to go. Often a better super payout if they contest and lose an election rather than retire.
Morrison can’t simply force Laming out of parliament - neither can Albo.

 

True - and I did know that (albeit mutter mutter) ... but they can strongly recommend they leave, which does hold some clout

 

Any updated opinions on who may come out ahead?