Australian Spending like its stuck in 2006

I'm in Shanghai as I write this. Shops are packed, factories I visited are pumping out more product than ever, as I travel by train I can see dozens of cranes everywhere. Doesn't look any slower than it did 2 years ago when I was last here or 5 years ago before that to me but I did notice a few more empty shops in the malls and the jewellery stores didn't seem as busy as last time.

Just my 2 cents.

 

Addicted to PC?

 

I prefer to listen to the Reserve Bank and their ramblings than those who predict other possibilities. There IS a reason why our banks (the top 4 ) and reserve bank do so well and why they are regarded in the top 100 in the world.

 

Shanghai is not the whole China. I'm now working on some orders from China, companies that I deal with are fighting for my order of a few grand. It was all a lot different just 3 years ago, when I considered the same action.

 

I dunno.
If everyone is crapping their pants, there's probably going to be a reason for it.

 

Depends what you are dealing in some products could be in less demand than they once were, doesnt mean the whole economy is about to tank.

Maybe not double digit growth but this place is far away from any significant downturn.

 

Or 2 minutes (relatively speaking...) from some other kind of unpleasant outcome.

Anybody in the dairy or truffle market care to comment?

 

Shanghai is good and in fact booming. My friend just sold a pad there recently and made a 2x in 12 months. Problem is most people in Shanghai also don't really know what's happenning for a variety of reasons.

 

I would rather listen to Soros than what anyone in those five institutions think.

 

Now they reckon $100:
Investors Betting on Oil Prices to Hit $100 a Barrel

 

Wrong, the Australian dollar did hit around 50 I think it 10 years ago. Its on the Australian Dollar thread, I cant be bothered locating the actual post, but you may want to?

 

It wasn't great in 2003, it was close to that. And x3 to the pound.

 

[http://forexcrunch-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com]

During 2001 AUD/USD was below 50c (dot-com bubble crash) then 60c during GFC. Expectation of return to those levels in the next few years would not be unreasonable IMHO. As you can see the last 4 years trend is clearly down with the usual rebounds on the way down.

Things in Shanghai are like things on Wall street, the economy there is enjoying excess liquidity and credit, probably just like Perth vs Sydney.
Death and Despair in China's Rustbelt
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-30/when-china-sneezes-those-closest-catch-the-worst-colds

If and when things start looking bad in Shanghai, you can be sure the **** has hit the fan everywhere else in China.

 

scary stuff really

 

No, Shanghai is not the whole of China.....but I've just come back from China a couple of days ago. We were on a tour going through many cities, and the one thing that was very consistent was the amount of cranes everywhere, and the amount of 6 level unit blocks that were being demolished to replace them with something like 30 level units. It's insane! Even on our four day cruise, down the Yangtze, there were stacks of cranes, even in the 'small' cities.

 

Did you visit ghost cities? They were also filled with cranes...

 

Sounds like one of those Tripadeal type things, was it any good?

 

The ghost city thing is a bunch of sensationalised garbage. They will be filled very quickly. You are just too used to the inefficiency of Australia.

I'm back now and just had a stark reminder of how backward we are here. Flight had to land at the freight terminal because there was no room left at the international terminal, so had to walk onto the run way and get a bus...

Don't worry in 10 years we will have more capacity. She'll be right! How's about a big enough airport to begin with so it can be expanded or get ahead of the curve and build the f'n new thing!

 

you have not been to Perth lately, we have stone man mentality here.

 

Why goto china to visiy ghost cities when you can get a similar ghost city feel in brisbane, Perth, Adelaide etc
) after all, the only worthwhile places to invest in Australia are sydney and Melbourne. Preferrably a house with lots if land and within the magical 10km radius to the cbd...i mean, god lives there right?