Australian housing market facing 'bloodbath' collapse: economists

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Beyond Wealth, 22nd Jun, 2015.

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  1. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

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    quoted for truth and the sheer hilarity of it all...
     
    Aaron Sice, 1st Jul, 2015
    #41
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  2. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Sort of takes the old saying,,as important as a turd in a swimming pool to a new meaning..
     
    willair, 1st Jul, 2015
    #42
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  3. quintets

    quintets Active Member

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    I read the BIS Shrapnel article and after I saw the calm phrases...

    “We expect prices will be pretty soft or fall in some cities,”

    I was wondering if BIS have gotten soft over the years. They used to be the ones trumpeting the big crashes. LOL
     
    quintets, 24th Jul, 2015
    #43
  4. KDP

    KDP Well-Known Member

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    KDP, 24th Jul, 2015
    #44
  5. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    radson, 24th Jul, 2015
    #45
  6. mcarthur

    mcarthur Well-Known Member

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    Be careful at comparing percentage changes.
    Let's say you started at a value of 100 (dollars or whatevers).

    Increase this by 45% and you get 145.
    *then* decrease the 145 by 40% and you get 87.
    You don't get 105!

    Another example: a 50% increase (100+50 = 150) followed by a 50% decrease = (150 *0.5 = 75) doesn't get you back to square 1!
     
    mcarthur, 24th Jul, 2015
    #46
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  7. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

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    yes but a 45% increase and a 20% decrease does....
     
    Aaron Sice, 24th Jul, 2015
    #47
  8. mcarthur

    mcarthur Well-Known Member

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    Approx 30% decrease to go back to the start :)

    But the whole idea is to remind that if something goes up by x% then goes down by x% then it won't go back to the starting point.
     
    mcarthur, 24th Jul, 2015
    #48
  9. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

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    There are other dynamics too, to add in to the mix, such as the variability and (as we are seeing now), the instability of holding costs such as interest rates.

    To a lesser but 'worth mentioning' degree... Sydney is beginning to take Perth's and Brisbane's cues and amalgate councils. This could see for instability in council rates in some negatively affected suburbs. Whilst this doesn't directly attribute to property values, as investors these cost variables infer whether we 'yay or nay' and given property purchase consideration. A bunch of investors jumping OUT of a suburb can have as much impact on values in that suburb as investors jumping IN.
     
    C-mac, 25th Jul, 2015
    #49
  10. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    There is a follow up to the Australian housing market facing 'bloodbath' collapse: economists story.

    Australian property ‘bloodbath’ prediction ridiculed by economists

    http://www.domain.com.au/news/austr...tion-ridiculed-by-economists-20150623-ghucag/
     
    Perthguy, 11th Sep, 2015
    #50
  11. propernewb

    propernewb Well-Known Member

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    This is great news for developers! The undersupply message will keep stimulating new starts and keep construction workers employed.
    It will also help accelerate the changes in Sydney. We're currently seeing a patchwork of houses interspersed between apartment blocks in the Inner West. Continued reporting of undersupply (whether you believe in it or not) will accelerate the Inner West's transformation into a high-density community to the benefit of all of Sydney.
     
    propernewb, 11th Sep, 2015
    #51
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