Australian housing market facing 'bloodbath' collapse: economists

I reckon Sydney's median will rocket to $3M by the end of this year and Brisbane's median will crash to $300K .

Love this new batch of **** I am smoking. I can see the future so clearly in a room full of smoke.

 

Felt i should do the reply to this as a seperate thread

Cliff

 

No in context "it's not different this time".

Having said that, there is a cat amongst the pigeons that is a little different ie the credit squeeze. Been investing since 1997 and to my recollection, this is the first time since then that the taps have been turned tighter across the board on finance. The differential rates between investment/OO loans existed in the mid to late 90s I think and that went out the window around 2000 or so, and is now back in vogue.

That's why I'm (unusually) adopting a more conservative stance in relation to going out and buying more IPs. I feel the effects of these measures, unless they revert to what we're used to, will depress the brake pedal on some of the better value cities at the moment ie Bris, Perth and Adelaide. There is no doubt in my mind that Syd and Mel will correct fairly soon - the question is how much. And I have a lot of skin in the game both in Sydney and Brisbane.

The other concern are the rental supply issues in Brisbane and to a similar extent in Perth. The Deception Bay's and Woodridge's of this world aside, the gross yields on fairly inexpensive properties (in the $500-600K range) are hovering < 4%. For example, average 3 bedders in Chermside are selling around mid $500s and renting out < $400 per week. Rents in Brisbane haven't really budged in 4 years and unlikely to for the next, say 2 years whilst the excess supply gets soaked up. So yeah, I'm a little concerned about whether NOW is the time to load up on Brisbane and Perth.

 

Can I have some of your good *******.....I'll be Cheech you can be Chong. ....we can have an up in Smoke reunion.

On a more serious note...I can recall a lot of Sydney people in the last boom either sold or pulled equity from their IPs/homes and put it into shares....well we all know how that turned out.

Seriously ..people some people ave no clue...and do not learn from the past. Not sayin shares not good...you just have to go in eye wide open.

 

Alright mate...i am going for an equity maaatteee...loan...plan dump it all into shares.

She'll be right....there is gold in thaar hills.....

 

Like all the NSW media saying that NSW has won this year's State of Origin.

My bong (and history) is telling me that this year's SoO is Queensland's .

 

Depends how much venom the cane toads have...but I hear it is hard to kill cockraches...

 

@Perthguy
Funny... cos I heard it was 2000-and-forever.

They are just waiting for NG to be abolished, then the Doomsday crash will begin.

 

Interest rates are rising

finance is tightening

we are now getting more negative posts in the media and also look at what is happening on PC, investors are moving to shares because they either can not get loans, looking for cash flow or both.

Current boom markets have been going sine 2013

Auction clearances rates, check these

 

.... we will see how it unfolds..... One thing for sure don't give advice if you don't have the runs on the board, its meaningless really

 

I wish a few fellow PC members would heed that advice.

I never give advice as I am uneducated, inexperienced, no understanding, ... plus I am not certified (only certifiable ).

Having said that, I am happy to post my opinion.

Some might say, too often.

 

No, I'd hide my face under a rock/negative equity prop

 

I read a Bernard Salt article a while back where he claimed that average prices will soon be in the several millions and people will be taking out mortgages over fractions of rooms or something to that effect

 

It is nice stars and stripes.....dunno how dats missed that, although he said he just came, here for the picture.....has razzled the grey matter?

 

Clearly something is razzled...

 

Absolutely !!!!!!

So glad I waited until the bath tub was full - but getting out now as it is overflowing.

Lots of people that listened to this train of thought missed out on the best part of the cycle.

If it falls 20% from here I guess they will all claim they were correct but a little out on the timing.

 

Main thing is investors got in on the rise and made money, either locked in equity or pulled the pin and moved on, remember there was more than one booming market.

If some investors managed to get 2 then good luck to them. Those who missed out will need to pay attention next time.

 

Timing is important, especially if you want a quick(er) time frame to build that wealth. There is no two ways about that. And tbh as See change said its not THAT difficult to time markets thereabouts. Just need the education. Alot of excuses made for simply lack of investing education.

 

Now where have I heard this before..?

Welcome to the €1 million standard semi-d (to save any confusion "fashionable" is used facetiously in that first paragraph, a semi-d is a townhouse or duplex).

 

I have never understood semi-detached. Would it not be easier to use the more direct "attached"?