Australian Dollar

I imagine retailers who have been living it up selling bucket loads of cheap HD TV's and other electronics like JB Hi-Fi will be slammed too. I already know which industry I'm targeting, I'm going to make a reasonably big play next Tuesday.

 

I'd be dumping any retailers reliant on imports as they're gonna feel the pinch.

 

WES just renegotiated hard coking coal price 15% lower this quarter than last quarter. Dollar is going good for them, but small in comparison to commodity prices hurting. Miners are still a bit off the nose for a bit yet.


pinkboy

 

I bought some from Travelex at 71 cents last week.

My US trip gunna be so expensive

 

Au65...... is this possible, that is massive drop from dizzy heights of over 1.00

Have a read of this
http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...commodity-prices-decline-20150717-gieiuk.html

 

Come to Europe (or most other countries not linked to USD) ... Australian dollar has hardly dropped at all.

 

Not sure why you would use Travelex? Your visa/master card would give better xchange rates than this mob (and probably lower fees).

.65 and below are very possible. Not long ago it was at 93 and people laughed at the suggestion of .85.

The way I see it Australia economy is going to be flat for a few years. US economy is on the re-bound although its probably a gradual climb. China will struggle along which will hurt Australia more than the US.

For me, I am still earning US and GBP so I welcome the decline in the $$.
Buying some foreign shares (VTI) at opportunity. And looking to take advantage of when it bottoms out.

MTR - given the increase in values you have seen (and presumably increase in rents?) have you considered taking a leveraged position in USD against your US assets? let the rents cover the mortgages, bring some equity back and ride the wave a bit longer?
Just curious on your strategy moving forward and what alternatives you have/are considering.

Blacky

 

I have not considered LVR recently, not sure I can access finance as a foreigner, nothing decent anyway?

MTR

 

The AUD/USD commences trade this morning at 0.7373.
The predications of 72 almost certain IMO

 

72c in the near term MTR. There is no support till 71.

65 is on the cards in the coming months unless something changes. US continues to strengthen. Even if the AUD does nothing.

 

VTS breached $150 for a period today

 

You sound confident at 65, that's huge, Amazing if this happens

 

Maybe more of a general question but how do people feel about our net worth essentially going down in value. My wage is in SGD (wished it was still USD like last year but not too bad) so in essence I'm getting a payrise in AUD and I have a lot of debt in AUD which would also decrease in value. However, given how global everything is nowadays, I still feel a bit uneasy.

Which brings up the question as to whether we should be looking to diversify our holdings for currency as well. I know MTR and some others have US properties and some are holding US stocks, but this would be the minority of investors.

 

Yep. I don't see the slide stopping any time soon. At this point I would say we are 6-8months from seeing it, but I believe we will get there. Even if conditions in Australia turn, the US will continue to strengthen.

Blacky

 

This is what it comes down to. A lot of people have forgotten what the US economy looks like when it's running at full steam. It's a beast.

 

Yeah, the US economy is the bomb if it's really going. It's like a Cadillac,, takes a lot to get it going, but once it does, it's momentum builds and is a juggernaut .

 

Just cop it.

Don't forget paying "normal" prices for food and drink , cars, etc and then coughing up 15% to 20% to "insure proper service " after you've had the service already lol

 

Check out this article, comparing Australia to Canada, and predicting Au$ to hit 60. Yikes.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...-in-canadianstyle-plunge-20150720-gifttg.html

Snap shot, time to manage the risk for those over exposed.

Under pressure
"Liquidity and interest rate-sensitive assets are going to be under a lot of pressure," Mr Lele said.

"All our indicators in US dollar liquidity point to it being in decline. I don't think people fully appreciate this. US dollar liquidity is really starting to move out now."

The significance of this was that US dollar liquidity was what had funded markets, he said.

"The carry trade into commodities is funded by US dollars. Commodities are more sensitive to emerging markets growth and emerging markets are funded by capital inflows moving in. Emerging market growth will slow and that's going to negatively impact commodities."

The other factor that would challenge commodity prices was that they tended to fall when the US dollar rallied, he said.

He urged investors to seek out growth-sensitive assets and avoid liquidity-sensitive exposures.

Within US equities, he favours home builders, consumer discretionary stocks, industrials, capital markets and technology plays. Equally, he is cool towards utilities and property trusts – which have attractive yields but are sensitive to rising interest rates – and commodities.



Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/australian-dollar-tipped-to-drop-below-us60-in-canadianstyle-plunge-20150720-gifttg.html#ixzz3gU6ChQJ6

 

I find it amazing - and more so, depressing - that all these years later this country is still in the same predicament it was in decades ago... a price taker for raw commodities with little advanced industry. If anything we have gone backwards due to the loss of the auto sector. We should all be ashamed of ourselves.

 

Yes a lot of people forget their net worth is being decimated and reduced on the world stage for every cent the AUD drops. That's fine if you like living in the Australian suburbs and holiday on the Gold Coast but for those living and investing o'seas with most of their income from Aussie rents it's something we need to hedge. I just bought another condo in the Philippines with settlement in 2018 and had to work out a payment plan based on the x-rate which involves selling a place in Thailand bought when the AUD was buying 31 baht. The low AUD sucks.