Australian Dollar 2018

If this happens, I got a pay rise.... 45% increase on my rents in USA... OMG

 

Well my honeymoon in February just became quite expensive.

 

surprised with world equities crashing but no movement on AUD front

 

Aud has risen a bit to 71c to usd, rather i think usd has been dropping a bit. See how our stock market performs today..

 

Wild fluctuations last couple of weeks ( well, high wobbles at least ) .70 ish-.72ish. I’m doing a lot of aud- usd transactions ( with AFEX) at the moment so I notice . (hear Currency Fair is quite good also , seems much of a muchness)

Watching closely because I have to exchange $100k next few weeks, so timing is important . Must be time for us interest rate announcement soon too, which could tumble us down a bit more

 

This is interesting...

Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees Aussie dollar rallying to US84¢

 

Aussie $ in on the way up.

 

Forgot to mention it's also a good predictor of when PMs get rolled. Significant falls in $AUS vs $US seem to correlate well with them.

 

Is USD down because of America looking weak in the stand off with China trade talks ? ( I read they are holding off on changes for a few months )

 

AUD almost 74c now. I reckon we are going back up to 78-79c soon.

I hope so I want to buy myself some new toys from the US.

 

Goldman Sachs saying it was going to 50c

 

lol....that's probably good enough advice to consider the opposite

Considering the $A is up a bit since the middle of the year.....(eg 5% from over $1.40 to 1.35) its not a bad time to send money if you are sending money from Australia to the USA.

Personally Im expecting USA to be up in 2019 compared to Australia......even though the article disagrees with my thinking.
Aussie Dollar may have seen its low

And im hoping for the $US to pop a little around the 20th of December so we can send some cash home to pay down variable mortgages to zero (still have some fixed mortgages but going to send the banks a message that their ridiculous variable rates wont be tolerated).

 

Maybe just chart the exchange rate against the current gold price and the price of oil ,and with the Dow down over 700 about an hour ago everyone understand the mechanics of a boom,now some may want to understand the mechanics of slump in prices worldwide ..50 cents no way ---80 and above ..

 

We should be looking at the ultimate arbiter of a currency's value - the gold price.

This is telling us that all currencies including the USD took a hit last night.

It is possible for the Australian dollar to weaken in real terms but strengthen against the USD.

My expectation would be that if there is any turmoil coming up there would be a temporary flight to the USD, but an overall flight into gold. As such, AUD to weaken against USD, and the gold price to go up.

Overall, property as a physical asset is usually a beneficiary of a weaker currency. If there is a panic, assets move out of paper into physical assets.

I also read in Blooberg this morning that the markets are starting to price in Fed easing by 2020.

Could be wrong, time will tell. Interesting times.

 

Unless you consider the US your home base ...and measure your income and wealth in US $
Then you would be down (due to your A $ 's)

 

I am enjoying the income when bringing it home

I am not too concerned about how wealth is measured, its taken me years to realise its all about the cashflow and lifestyle

 

Yep 20th of December.....waiting waiting waiting (BTW FED is 100% going up 0.25% if you were in any doubt).




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