Australian Dollar 2017

I am a firm believer in China's economy driving everything globally. It just started cooling after the communist party congress was over in October. So i believed globally everyone got a tailwind for most of 2017 as they continued to pile on debt to keep their economy humming for appearances.

But economic results for Nov onwards will very likely be worse as now that Xi is firmly in charge again, Chinese gov has started tightening their financial system and regulating everything more with an iron fist..

For eg..
They are closing big polluters like steel factories and cutting excess capacity.
Blues skies return

also further crackdown on shadow banking/microlenders.
China War on Online Loans Makes Waves in New York: QuickTake Q&A
Jack Ma's Alipay Caps Online Loan Rates at 24%, Lenders Fall

Remember the beginning of 2016 when everything went down? ;D

 

The Ausie took a nice pounding today.

Blacky

 

Probably coz of what Fed nominee said about raising rates and Yellen too today. Capital outflows starting soon.

Fed chair nominee tells Congress his views

or maybe everyones selling all they have to buy bitcoin, jumped 10% and hit $11000 today

 

Didn't they say they will raise rates by 75 points in the next 24 months?

 

AFAIK they are not committed to any rate raising, it will all be dependent on their internal indicators and discussions to decide.

From CNBC
Fed Chair Janet Yellen: Rates have to rise to prevent 'boom-bust' economy
[Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank is concerned with growth get out of hand and thus is committed to continuing to raise rates in a gradual manner.

"We don't want to cause a boom-bust condition in the economy," Yellen told Congress in her semiannual testimony Wednesday.

Whilst Yellen did not specifically commit to a December rate hike, her comments indicated that her views have not changed with her desire for the central bank to continue normalizing policy after years of historically high accommodation.]

Anyways nothing is set in stone. Yellen will handover to Powell soon and then it will be up to him and his Fed committee. But markets are pricing in a rate rise in december already and should be a gradual decline in AUD/USD unless FED indicates otherwise regarding rate rises.

Lol and bitcoin just crashed 20% overnight again, now thats a proper modern internet speed investment bubble.

 

Hopefully interest rates in Australia go up soon and the AU$ also goes higher, we need it back to the 85-90 cent range.

 

If the Au$ drops it would far better for out economy, here is why

David and Libby Koch: Falling Aussie dollar good for economy

 

Aussie up up up!!!

 

Well that's someone's opinion but my opinion is we'd all be better off if the AU$ was higher, like in the 85-95 range.

 

Why is that?

 

absolutely... saying that a low AUD will somehow bring prosperity is just old school

 

Some interesting numbers I found...

OEC - Australia (AUS) Exports, Imports, and Trade Partners
[In 2016, Australia exported $159B and imported $181B, resulting in a negative trade balance of $22.5B. In 2016 the GDP of Australia was $1.2T and its GDP per capita was $46.8k.

The top exports of Australia are Iron Ore ($38.8B), Coal Briquettes ($27.2B), Gold ($13.5B), Wheat ($3.57B) and Crude Petroleum ($3.53B), using the 1992 revision of the HS (Harmonized System) classification. Its top imports are Cars ($16B), Refined Petroleum ($10.7B), Computers ($6.07B), Crude Petroleum ($5.9B) and Packaged Medicaments ($5.64B).

The top export destinations of Australia are China ($55.1B), Japan ($18.9B), South Korea ($11.2B), the United States ($8.26B) and the United Kingdom ($7.41B). The top import origins are China ($37.3B), the United States ($22.1B), Japan ($14.1B), Germany ($10.1B) and Singapore ($9.4B).]

From these numbers, our imports are more than our exports.

So I reckon at the moment a higher dollar would be better since we are a net importing nation.

and since our main exports are commodity based, exchange rate may actually not play such a big part in the economy but rather commodity prices.

 

Westpac stating Au$ going to tank

Aussie dollar will fall to US68c, with economy stuck in slow lane: Westpac

 

Our terms of trade have been pretty good recently

 

there are other important factors, for example - the net balance of investments (existing / new). As far as I remember, Australia attract more investments than we invest every year

 

Iron Ore

$69.34 (US/t)

Iron Ore is also doing well.
Its was close to $60 late last months and has bounced close to $70

 

Good week for Aussie $

The Australian Dollar had its best week for several months, rising for four consecutive days then only finally giving ground to a resurgent US Dollar in the last few hours of trading in New York on Friday. After the very poor performance of the AUD over the previous few weeks and the general softness in many of the incoming economic indicators

 

yeah oil prices have been going up fast pulling most commodity prices up as Middle EAst seems to be in more turmoil over the Jerusalem hoohah.. might be very short term though.

Overall China will be slowing quite a bit over next half year so methinks commodities will go down more at some point.

 

you hate aussie don't you?

 

All in all its very volatile, lets see what happens next year.
I need buy up more US properties, it works well when bringing the money home.