At what level will the Sydney median house price peak, and when?

The long run is so long that I believe only my next generation will see this coming lol

 

Nice! I like that!! Just like Oil, they're not making any more of it...

 

Hi @Steve Ryan,

Would like to know your view & other experts views of the forum on my PPOR decision since the discussion involves Schofields.

Being new to Sydney (just about to finish 2yrs in Oct) & with strong desire of owning a property, I bought in Schofields with whatever research I could manage.

I didnt really go through SS forums then thinking it is only for investment property (I wish I were honestly).

I steered away from H&L packages coz I was looking for a bigger land component though few suggested that it could be a mistake on missing out FHB grant. My rationale was that the grant would be equivalent or less than what I would be paying for rent while waiting for the H&L to finish which generally takes 18+ months with complicated builder pro contracts and for a land component that is easily 100-150sqm less than established property.

I bit the bullet & bought 13yr old property in Jan this year. Primary reasons for zeroing on Schofields
- Affordable compared to neighboring places
- Lot of infra spending by Govt
- norwest rail link (4kms) from my place & Schofields station (2.5kms)
- norwest business park & Sydney business park in 10kms radius
- university of western sydney being 3.5kms away
- Potential ripple effect from hills district

Clearly the one thing I missed out is the future oversupply of H&L packages in that area.


I did realize that market was hot while buying in Jan this year but since it is PPOR I felt it is better to buy rather than wait.

The property gained well post my purchase (thanks to the mad bull run) but in hindsight, after all the reading I have done on SS & PC forums for last couple of months, I probably should have bought a townhouse or villa & used the rest of money for my first investment property.

Sorry for such a lenghty post but wanted to hear out from experts on my mistakes as am gearing to get into PI soon.

 

@Jaik2012 : Congratz in getting the property in Schofields area mate. According to Domain top growth suburbs, Schofields was 43% gain this year alone. Hence it is a gold mine of the most profitable area in Sydney this year.

Good choice in securing the established property in the area because yes, newer H&L package is usually smaller and probably will be over supplied.

Plus the majority of the expert investor in this forum is well against new H&L package due to:

1. you paid the premium price already
2. over supply when it is already build
3. what if after the completion date the property valuation dropped to lesser value ?
4. no potential renovation to add capital gain or rental yield.

you can ask brother @sash and @wombat777 for more about this area for more insight and comment.

 

@Tekoz - Well, I probably managed to catch just 10% of those gains (being the last leg of the boom) which eventually will be wiped out by the impending correction of may be 5%-7% followed by many years of stagnation until the next boom 10-12 years from now. Nevertheless, I have got in with a view of 12-15 years time frame. Have to see how it pans out

If it doesn't sound like deviating from the topic of the thread, would definitely love to hear @sash and @wombat views on the area

 

What did you pay Jai?

I know it is 13 years old? Also how big is the land?

You may have done alright...the new stuff is the real dangerous stuff at then moment.

 

@Jaik2012

1. How close is your property to Schofield's Road? ( i.e. Bus routes )
2. Is it close to Schofields station? Walking distance?
3. Is it close to the new Cudgegong Road Station? Walking distance?

These are all factors that may help with value of your property.

Some business owners were angry when Schofields Station was moved away from the original town. One or two shops had insurance jobs done on them.

The completion of the upgrade to Schofields Road will significantly improve access into and out of the suburb. For many years it has been a goat track that I always avoided.

Also anticipate that the Metro Line from Cudgegong Road will (likely) be eventually linked up with Badgerys Creek airport. Studies are underway on the corridor. This will include the Outer Sydney Orbital ( a new motorway ).

Long-term growth prospects are good in terms of locations for employment. Also, a new hospital is also planned for Rouse Hill. My guess is this will be near Cudgegong Road Station ( it would be silly for it not to be near the railway line ).


The full brochure is here:

http://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/sit...outer-sydney-orbital-newsletter-june-2015.pdf

 

Hi @sash

I have paid $706K (excludes other purchase costs). Land isn't that big. Had to settle for 480sqm rectangular block with 15m frontage(was looking for 550+ sqm blocks but couldn't afford).

 

Hi @wombat777,

Thanks for the detailed info on the area. None of the landmarks you mentioned are walkable but a short drive away from my place.

1. How close is your property to Schofield's Road? ( i.e. Bus routes ) - 2 to 2.5kms
2. Is it close to Schofields station? Walking distance? - 2.5kms
3. Is it close to the new Cudgegong Road Station? Walking distance? - 3 to 3.5kms probably

 

I think the area you are in will fill-in with housing relatively quickly since it is located between the two stations. I wouldn't be too worried. Whilst you didn't buy early in the cycle, you haven't bought at the top. If it is your PPOR and you can afford the repayments there is no need to worry.

 

Thanks. Feeling a lot more comfortable

 

Sydney still going strong.

 

Amazing, 47% call 2016 peak? Market is still running hot

 

Lol, Peak Soil, I love it.

Throw that out on a few more forums and I'll bet we'll see an article "Have we hit Peak Soil?"

 

Which part of Schofields is it? Is it Alex Ave area, or near Schofields Primary, or west of Schofields station?

I also have a property at Schofields myself (bought it at Jan 2014). I noticed that The Ponds was very expensive so I bought Schofields as they just started rezoning and selling H&L packages.

With all the developments around there, NWRL, Schofields Road widening to Marsden Park, new Schofields shopping centre development, Ikea/Costco at Marsden Park, new Business Park at Marsden Park etc etc etc I think it is going to be a good place to live.

At least you bought a house with this. Developers are selling 3 bedroom OTP apartment at Schofields for 650K, and 2 bedroom OTP apartment near Cudgegong Road for 650K!

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-unit-nsw-schofields-119798119

http://parklandrousehill.com.au/

 

Yeah, one of the news sites are sure to run a sensationalist article with that title. Copyright it!

 

I bought in Dongola Circuit (corner of Ponds and Quakers Hill) few streets behind Alex Avenue. It is in the middle of train stations i.e. Schofields, QH & future Cudgegong. How about yours?

 

Cheers, glad you like it..standard stuff.. I work in Comms and am amazed how poor some of the writing is and lack of research done by some property journos.

 

To put it into perspective. 2 bed apartments in Parklands Rouse Hill cost more than land plus house that I got across the road in The Ponds earlier this year..630k H&L. 650k 2 bed apartments..only difference is those apartments are .5km from cudgegong station whereas mine is 1.5-2km from station

 

Mirvac was selling H&L packages at the avenue for 620k 3 months ago. Smaller land though. Around 350sqm