ASX200 (XJO) 7000 here I come....

Today morning XJO breached its 2007 all time high of 6828 to reach 6875 at the time of writing.

Have no idea what it will do next but not unreasonable to expect it to hit 7000 psychological level sometime soon considering it’s so close.

Cheers
Oracle.

 

When you look at the 20 year average for the All Ordinaries Accumulation index is running at plus 9--5 percent ..

This year as of the first of July 2018--2019 is above 11 percent ,so my guess is if you were to only look at the last 20 years in a straight line and the fund management industry and their offspring is populated with fast buck gurus and ignoring the information we don't see 7000 will be just the starting point ..

Btw the last time I said that the market lost 50%..imho..

 

I think it can and will reach it pretty quickly, markets are on fire.

 

Only jitters that I can see at the moment is from Brexit and the US & China Trade deal.
Also if the US cuts its official interest rate to spur on the economy, bit like what has happened here recently.

 

Damn well everywhere.

If the headlines in the media are about the ASX hitting or not hitting this or that mark and those headlines are not confined to the Business Section............ Amazing how the screaming heebie jeebies starts to become almost interesting. That or journalists are searching around for something "dramatic" to justify their pay cheque.

 

I'm not happy because I am currently buying extra units in my superannuation fund and they are at an all time high cost wise. At the end of last year they were cheap. Now I'm getting less value for money

 

Shouldn't your unhappiness have been posted in the First World Problem thread?

Anyways the ASX 200 is just a made up measure. Moses didn't bring it down from the mount as something which must be followed.

Prefer the ASX 296 ex ASX 157 meself. Just as good as any other I reckon.

 

May not be today or this week as it's impossible predicting the future --but after all the media print over the past few days and with all the light of information some feel confident 9000x is on the cards while other,s think it's down hill again as history flows forward ...

 

Adelaide Brighton wont be adding to the surge. Cancelled its interim dividend due to profit downgrade of 37%.

Possibly some adverse impact on other suppliers listed on the ASX with the Ralan Group going into the hands of administrators. Will hurt creditors probably to the tune of $500m including any subbie wanting some money to pay the mortgage. Ouch.

 

I’m calling ASX 20,000...

In 30 years time. That’d be annual growth of 3.66%.

And ASX 50,000...

That’d be 4% growth for 50 years.

And hopefully I’m around long enough to see ASX 100,000...

For that we need 3.92% growth rate for 70 years. I’ll be 100 years old!

That can be my birthday present... come on Australia you can do it!

 

It is pointless and futile watching and worrying about what the index is doing at the moment the short term direction of the index will be decided in a week or 2. High expectations are built in it will take exceptionly good results to give a lift, a good result but less than expectations could see a drop and good buying opportunities. I have been waiting a while to buy BTH and LVT both had a good result but the price dropped so I picked up some LVT to-day, BTH hasn't been triggered yet. I wouldn't be spending a full allocation yet on the index yet I would think their is a good chance of a drop and a buying opportunity in the next 2 weeks and only a slight chance of modest gains at best,

 

Of course - the US dropping interest rates might give the ASX a boost.

 

You would think @sharon but I'm going to wait a few weeks for the Australian reporting season. Better opportunities "might" be a few weeks away. Not advice

 

Bit of turbulence in USA:

"The Dow and S&P 500 registered their biggest daily percentage drops in two months after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dampened expectations for further cuts following the central bank's first interest rate cut in a decade."
and
"US President Trump tweeted: "the US will start, on September
1st, putting a small additional tariff of 10% on the remaining 300
billion dollars of goods and products coming from China into our
country. This does not include the 250 Billion Dollars already tariffed
at 25%."

 

Oracle what do you think ?, It's starting to come back into that 2007range again in same lead-up pattern,as things that only seemed impossible as few weeks ago ,as im starting to see some within the '' A S X'' top 35 semi blue chips are starting again to focus on long term goals rather the shareholder's short term demands ..even several that are now ex div and the cheques are on the way..

 

The only thing I’m considering calling at the moment is my doctor for a stomach pump after three days of gluttony. Just like the market my waistline has hit an all time high. Would dearly like to see a downtrend in the market and waistline.

 

Hard to say. Even people who study patterns and charts get it wrong I am just a casual observer.

What I do know is stock market in the short term can go up and down but over the long term will always follow earnings.

The thing in my control right now is save as much I can and keep investing.

It would be good to see 7000 level but I should really be hoping for 6000 level just so next time I go to buy each dollar can buy more shares than if index is at 7000

Cheers
Oracle.

 

That's good to hear, and it's always better to just dismiss all the media claims add on the no-investing conspiracy theorists and focus on the outcomes between the Chinese President vs President Trump ,and i may be naive but it will be sorted by early next year ,then the number 7000 will just be history..imho..

 

I am baffled by the way the market is behaving at the moment. We have had bad news story after bad news story. Terrible GDP figures this week. Bad numbers coming out of the US & Europe. Then we get a news story saying US / China have agreed to talk again in October and up we go again.

I mean REALLY! All the signs pointing to a global economic slowdown are not having much of an affect yet US / China saying they will talk which means absolutely nothing and that gets the market going.

Look, I am expecting things to turn down very soon. But let me tell you if the US / China come out and even hint that they have reached an agreement then the market is going to rocket up. If that happens I might give up on my short term ambitions of balancing my portfolio to hold more equities. I will just stick to being overweight commercial property trusts.
They behave much better.

 

It could well drop again,the same as your stomach --but i always look at the framed quote in front of me --never let your debt be more then 15 percent of your net worth..Li-Ka-Shing --some would argue with a simple quote like that but when you think about it's reality..