Are we heading towards a recession

Sorry I did mean half glass empty on Aussie property. Clearly you have done well for yourself which clearly shows the cup ain’t always empty.

 

We haven't mentioned Martin North for a while so I just spent an hour on his website. They seem to think that we are in for one doozy recession any moment. I wont link anything - it's too depressing.

 

Depends what you read I guess....
Apparently Nathan Birch is saying buy now as we are ready for boom time with IR cuts and APRA easing????

 

In the US?

 

Yes

 

This is the thoughts of 20 economists from 20 different Australian Universities/Institutes. The range of their forecasts is amazing.

I have never seen Steve Keen so positive. NOT.

Just goes to show that one should take too much notice of anyone as no-one knows.

https://propertyupdate.com.au/buckle-up-2019-20-survey-finds-the-economy-weak-and-heading-down-and-thats-ahead-of-surprises-2/?utm_source=Michael%27s+Daily+Commentary&utm_campaign=66d1394f53-MY_DAILY_EMAIL&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8ac08e5c4d-66d1394f53-558248653

 

Lol. Steve reckons probability of 95%. I hope he takes medication for blood pressure cause he seems chronically stressed.

 

Especially when two of his peers stated 5% and the average of 29% .

 

If we were in a recession, would anyone be willing to admit it, or trust the data that said we were in it?

 

The only recession metric worth worrying about is the unemployment rate.

If the unemployment rate spiked we would all know about it and there would be no denying the recession causing it.

 

Is that so? Funny how it all works when one metric supports a pet theory and another doesn't.

I'm no economist but to me the assertion that real net disposable income per capita is a better measure of living standards than GDP per capita is a matter of convenience rather than fact.
Even if you didn't know how the calculation was derived, the biggest tell is politicians point to RNDI when the economy is going backwards in real terms (GDP per capita) to maintain the appearance of keeping the economy growing. It has "real" in the name, see? That's the number you really need to look at

I don't fully agree with Steve Keen's levels of certainty either. While his reasoning is generally sound you wouldn't want him playing drums for your band with that timing of his. The man and the models are brilliant, IMO, but you simply can't account for the ridgeless undulations of Scott Morrison's brain, iron ore spot price booms or any myriad factors that play out in the real world and tangibly influence the shape and direction of the economy, not to mention the timing of those movements.

 

GDP slows to levels back in GFC

'Higher risk of recession in 2020' after GDP posts worst result since 2009

 

Youi would physically see this IMO

For example, I believe Perth is in a recession.

Here some signs...….Shops closing down, empty commercial spaces scattered around CBD, commercial property not renting due to oversupply. Free rent offered for first three months in many industrial precincts. Property market in freefall, oversupply or just no growth for last decade.

Does this sound like it could be a recession???

 

I believe Perth/Wa is in recession, the data will show that in the coming months I'm guessing.

From what I have seen it has been a slow decline for the previous few years in building and retail but it seems like there has been a sharp decline in employment and spending since April this year.

Lots of businesses downsizing if they are able to, lots of businesses closing down - many in major shopping centres. Once upon a time you couldn't get a shop in a major shopping centre, it was like winning the lotto. Now they just close them up and board up the space as they have no one that wants to take it on.

And the biggest sign - everyday people talking about how bad things are, looking for work, watching what they spend, having hours cut, losing their jobs because the work has dried up

 

Yes agree
I read ready Mandurah houses prices have falling 30% thats massive. Lots of pain in this market

 

As I've been saying,
China past two months reading of manufacturing PMI been in contraction(since the 25% tariffs started may). Pretty sure it will filter downunder next few months as long as trade war goes on. So GDP growth second quarter ending june should be slightly negative for us. Should that happen, it be start of technical recession. But might not be that bad of a recession as iron ore prices are slated to remain high in the coming year. Not sure why WA economy is still struggling, perhaps all the profits have been redirected back to Sydney.

It's gonna be all eyes on what Trump and Xi end up doing. China's got it's hands full with the unrest in HK and some human rights issues within the Xinjiang region..

 

Despite this confident prediction of being in a recession in June, you actually need two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth to be in a recession. March quarter was lower but still positive growth.

 

That guy and his mate Adam are annoying. They are obviously making money from youtube hits and are trying to be as dramatic and negative as possible. Although I do like Edwin's videos on the apartment build issues. He was picking these defects up way before Opal and Mascot towers.

 

Our Rockingham dealer is closing the on Sunday 16 years in the industry.
So yes times are tough.

 

The Xinjiang stuff and HK stuff is reported a lot in our media. Very few people care about that in China. Not reported, and not a lot of sympathy on those fronts from average Chinese from what I can tell or hear. But trouble is brewing economically. One of the big telltale signs that China is going to really slow is caterpillar sales. Even when property is still going up, heavy digging machine is on the dive.