Are more people likely to move to regional areas in 2022?

{Note from mods: thread continued from Are people more likely to move to regional areas in 2021}

"Experts say Queensland hasn't experienced such a sustained level of demand and accelerated growth before."

"There are a lot of people from Brisbane, the Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast and Toowoomba buying here. They are basically selling to people from Sydney and Melbourne and moving up here. They are pretty much moving up the coast."

'Sugar shack' goes for sweet price as Central Queensland property sales outshine rivals

 

Are these guys way off the mark? https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2021-12/population_statement_2021.pdf
Not saying they are right but is it likely the old normal will return? Obviously boss doesnt think so. skip to p24 for the general gist. If correct, then a stagnant melb could be looking a good invst in a year or two relative to others. People lump it with sydney but Its very cheap relative to sydney and not much more exp than brissy now.

 

The Government can't force people to live in a particular location...including Melbourne.

And the Government can't force overseas migrants to settle in Melbourne either.

So people are free to vote with their feet. Simple.

And on that note the 2021 census data will be released in the coming months so we'll have a much clearer understanding of exactly where people have moved and which cities/towns have gained or lost people since COVID erupted.

Of course...many of us already have a reasonably clear understanding of the above though...but the Census data will nevertheless provide comfirmation for all.

 

The census wont tell you what happens pist covid when internat borders open which is what this article is about. oseas migrants for the most part will start in the big cities to get established in it jobs, attend unis and be close to family, chinese supermarkets etc. And many from china, india arent driven by the beach lifestyle. We will see i guess. I still think melb will " benefit" most from mass immigration which seems to be on the cards, but will take a few years to perculate through.

 

There'll be plenty of data released in the coming months and years in terms of immigration.

With that said though, the data that's already been released in previous months that illuminates where overseas buyers have been looking on realestate.com demonstrates a very strong demand for regional Australia; much stronger than pre-COVID, for example.

"On May 1, the number of monthly property searches from overseas buyers looking at a home in Queensland peaked at around 650,000, and increase of 34 per cent compared to March 2020."

Where overseas househunters are looking for property in QLD - realestate.com.au

So I honestly believe people who think that the world is simply going to revert to the way it was 3 years ago...in terms of where immigrants choose to live...need to consider the extent to which the effects of COVID will create new, long term, global trends.

 

Agree, but maybe the covid lense has exacerbated things. Maybe some will return to the cities if job, lifestyle does not work out. Maybe many went stir crazy and bought in the regions cause they couldnt do their thailand/bali trip. Fomo etc. A lot of unknowns. And if melb/syd prices drop then less equity to buy in the regions.

 

Just compare the vacancy rates each month.

Numbers don't lie:

SQM Research - Property - Residential Vacancy Rates - Melbourne

SQM Research - Property - Residential Vacancy Rates - Sunshine Coast

SQM Research - Property - Residential Vacancy Rates - 4655

SQM Research - Property - Residential Vacancy Rates - 4677

And I don't expect either Sydney or Melbourne to crash...but the price gap between the capitals and the regions has narrowed over the last two years...and I expect this price gap to narrow further in the coming years too.

 

All covid. We are discussing post covid. Melb vacancy rates will look very different when students (oseas and local) return.

 

Ok...just continue to compare the vacancy rates and other data in the coming months and years (post-COVID)…and be sure to post all of the data on this forum too

And particularly this type of data

SQM Research - Property - Total Property Listings - Melbourne

 

"The sea change and tree change will continue as Aussies bring forward their retirement plans and continue flexible work."

“The pandemic made people rethink their living situations and seek a better lifestyle sooner. It’s not a new trend - it simply became supercharged during lockdowns – and will continue at higher than previously seen levels.”

"Borderless buying will become the norm as investment decisions increasingly become driven by data."

"Being well informed about markets helps investors spot opportunities quickly. While there will always be opportunities in capital cities to make a profit, savvy investors are getting outside their comfort zones and looking further afield."

What will 2022 bring for the property market?

 

"The next step for employers and workers will be a reimaging of our new remote reality. Some employees, in denial about the permanence of their work-from-home set-up, will finally buy a real desk and an ergonomic chair."

Is It Time to Embrace Work-From-Home Forever?

 

"Australians are still deserting Melbourne and Sydney in droves and moving to Brisbane or the regions, according to an online removalist booking company."

“We are a good proxy of the total people moving house in Australia - you would not look at our site unless you wanted to move,” Adam Coward from Muval told AAP."

"People are also keen on moves to the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast, with Bundaberg, Rockhampton, Hervey Bay and Cairns popular."

"Regional centres including Newcastle, Wollongong and Ballarat are also attracting interest."

"Mr Coward said Muval’s data is significant given a current lack of official figures on migration trends, data that is usually collected when people update their address with Medicare."

Aussies still deserting Melbourne and Sydney in droves - this is where they’re going

 

Keep sending people to Hervey Bay and Sunny Coast. I want a large elevated block on the coast near Bundaberg or Gympie, thank you, in about two more years time when our suburban Brisbane home hits $1m.

 

Rainbow Beach, Tin Can Bay, Bargara or Elliott Heads?

All of the above are rising in line with everywhere else on the QLD coast between Coolangatta and Yeppoon.

So I think the secret's well and truly out anyhow.

 

I know. Bugger. Do you remember a few summers ago we were agonising over how far away AW was from civilisation when they could barely give away 800m2 fully serviced blocks on the hill overlooking the Pacific? My broker wouldn't let me buy one after the mess I made in Gladstone a few years earlier.

 

Yeah mate I remember...a lot has changed in AW and thereabouts over the past two years.

 

"Regional markets are seeing renewed momentum in the pace of value growth."

"Since March 2020, housing values across regional Australia are up 32.0% compared to the 20.0% lift in values seen across the combined capitals."

"The quarterly pace of growth in regional dwelling values rebounded through the December quarter, in contrast to slowing momentum across the capital city market. Regional dwelling values were up 6.4% in the three months to December, compared to the 5.1% rise recorded in the September quarter. This potentially reflects a new wave of demand as buyers exited the extended lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne."

"Regional Queensland was the clear standout across the rest-of-state markets in December, with housing values up 2.4%."

Housing values end the year 22.1% higher with the pace of gains continuing to soften as multi-speed conditions emerge

 

Interesting...

“I’m absolutely certain that work-from-home is a permanent structural change and the pursuit of an idyllic regional lifestyle will accelerate indefinitely,” Mr Pressley said."

 

When COVID first erupted working from home was viewed as only a temporary
measure.

Two years down the track though and the idea of hybrid/remote work is now essentially normalized.

Productivity hasn't suffered and companies are saving on rent, utilities and other out goings too; it's a win-win for companies and employees.

So moving forward...I think most now understand that hybrid/remote work is here to stay for the long term.


"Work from home is the new normal as employers struggle to make the daily grind work."

"Companies may want to force their workforce back into a 2019 straight-jacket model of 9-to-5, Monday to Friday, at the desk." But with extreme labour pressure on employers – making it essentially a seller's market for people interested in a new job – it's not going to happen."

"Welcome to #WFH forever."

"Around 35 per cent of jobs do have aspects that allow them to be done at home, according to a report by the Productivity Commission, the government's think tank. The kinds of jobs tend to be better-paid and more likely to be full-time."

"What big landlords want is to see people in town. But they know that private employers can't and won't compel a newly-empowered workforce – with employees in hot demand – back into the office against their will."

COVID changed office work. And workers won't just 'go back'

 

The question of whether the Australian government can force you to live in a particular location, I think that concept can be quite possible in the future.
At the present many want out of the big cities and I can understand why.
However if the 2 major parties combine along with media support and corporate allegiance then anything is possible. Most people that have gone regional have perhaps bought acreage type properties and it wouldn’t take much for a government to introduce environmental laws to make rural property ownership very expensive. I would love to get out of the big city, I’m just struggling with it.