There's an article by Paul Mason in The Guardian today about a failed Doom and Gloom prediction. The claim was that according to a market analyst's model, a downturn should have started on 1st October. Evidently it didn't turn up. However, Mason thinks that there are still risks in the global financial system. In particular, debt levels have risen above what they were prior to the GFC in most developed and emerging markets. Then there's the geopolitical factors, such as ISIS in the Middle East. I'd probably add the Chinese attempting to annex the South China Sea, and the sabre rattling with the US over this.