ANZ says price slow down concluding with Gorwth starting 1.8% 2018 and 2.36% for 2019 Nationally

Five graphs that show what's next for the property market


“We think most of the slowdown has already occurred.”ANZ senior economists Daniel Gradwell and Joanne Masters

Interesting chart shown 2019 Growth in Melbourne higher than that of Brisbane.

 

I read that and initially scoffed at the idea of clueless people making biased predictions based on one stat,

but having a thinkg about it, fast fwd 5 years, and looking back, a period of very little grwoth after a small drop seems entirely plausible

 

I would agree if all factors we're to stay the same. But if the cost of borrowing goes up, banks inact stricter lending rules and a recession occurs due to a US Chinese Trade war - then we are looking at further drops in values. All of these factors are plausable in the current environment.

 

In Sep 2017 ANZ forecasted above 6% growth for 2017 (Sydney), and 3.5% for 2018. In fact, growth was 2 times slower. Those charts/forecasts are useless. In a few months, they can easily release another updated forecast for 2018/2019 putting numbers into negative zone or making two digits growth forecast.

 

It's interesting they are still putting Perth in negative growth territory. 2018 might surprise them and may not.

In any case, does it make any difference? I picked up a good deal in Perth while prices were falling. Prices have now fallen for 2 years solid and it's still a good deal.

 

East coasters - welcome to Perth's world of property outlooks. Anybody in the property industry that gets some media time declares they are certain that the market slowdown is almost over, that prices will be fairly flat this year and mysteriously start rising next year. Oh, and it's a great time to buy of course.
And they'll keep saying this year after year until it actually happens

 

Im no master at TA, but looks like 2020 buy time to me!

 

The whole chart looks overly optimistic to me. I'm guessing a gentle downward trend everywhere except tassie for a few years, though I also agree that Perth might do better than the forecasts

 

We will see In 9 months

 

On the other side there are people who have been saying the property market will collapse any day now... for 15 years!

 

I want investors to stop buying and more people to start renting.