ANZ has no IDEA about property prices?

Prediction by ANZ latest........arggghhh
ANZ tips 10% decline in Sydney, Melbourne house prices

If ANZ gurus are so off and allowed to make new statements with no responsibility for their previous statements months earlier .

How do they get published. How is their no integrity to journalism to allow this rubbish to be published.

It is my opinion that journalist and ANZ should apologise for projections 2 months earlier and explain they were wrong and why they got is so wrong.



This was previous articles claiming market to edge higher in 18-19 these are very recent months old. So they can be held to account.

Five graphs that show what's next for the property market

here is you tube



How do these experts have jobs?


What is your opinion?

 

Just read this and was coming here to post but too slow. Hilarious

 

But its always safe to predict the past,
10% fall is already happening in many parts of Sydney,
won't be surprised if they come with an even higher% fall in a year or two for Sydney.

 

I've just come to. A point that credibility doesn't exist in journalism or anything official these days.

Now I just ignore most of it

 

Property prices will follow demand. Always. What ANZ or anyone else says does not matter. What matters is are an increasing number of people buying a limited number of assets to bid up prices. If the answer is no, due to oversupply, lack of credit, investors or other buyers leaving/not entering the market, or generally because of negative sentiment (i.e. people are scared to buy, think it's not a good investment, want to wait or whatever) then the balance between supply and demand will tip, and prices will drop.

Ignore ANZ. They are floundering between needing prices to rise and needing not to look stupid if prices fall, so they along with most experts are doing little more than coming up with projections based on the current direction and rate of price movements. It's like throwing a rock and predicting its trajectory... but the housing market is a bit more dynamic than a rock in flight. If prices keep dropping at the present rate, yes they will indeed end about 10% down in Sydney. But all ANZ are doing is predicting based on the present and recent past. Things could change. Things could improve or things could get worse (e.g. in Sydney, if the market does finish 10% down, there's a real risk this in itself will turn more buyers off, further reducing demand).

If you want to predict price movements you'd be better off paying attention to general sentiment. Do people think prices are going to drop? Can people get finance? Is supply increasing? Are assets actually selling or failing to sell? Are owners selling up? And so on. But ANZ has no idea.

 

@highlighter I agree although the general public may not be as well informed and depend on reputable companies like ANZ for the information and guidance they are providing.
Consistent misinformation needs to be held to account.

In my opinion. Well at least we can bring them to account here.

 

Do your own research. The banks do well when prices go up so they have some interest in buoying sentiment. It's much more work when sentiment turns and prices flatten or go down.
Projected stamp duty for state budgets (e.g. NSW projected to drop from around 7.8 b this year to 1.9 b next) is an indicator of where things might go. State default rates tell a story (30 days or more without mortgage payment) tells a story and it's historically high in Tasmania (best performing market) with a minor dip in April (2017 figures: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp...rising-in-all-Australian-states-Apr2017-1.pdf).
Then you have demographic changes. We actually have a youthful population with lower ability to buy property historically. If you see increased deceased estates with borrowing capacity tightened for young people, what do we all think will happen? Prices to the moon?

 

They might have to revise their forecasts again....10% has already come off Sydney possibly another 5-10% to go for the median....

 

Everyone knows these are opinion pieces not facts, right?

We seem to be acting like these are factual articles and people attempting to hold them to account for fake reporting.......

All banks, investment funds are making educated guesses. We shouldn’t be expecting them to be right every time, that’s too high of a standard. I think in general they are trying to be right more often than they are wrong. Which judging by the fact is a pretty big and profitable bank - they probably are. Otherwise they will go broke.

 

If you want to blame someone ,point the finger at APRA and the RC into the banks for constantly changing the goal posts.
These reports are generally based on data that can be already a couple of months old by the time it is reported
There may be even bigger changes depending on what the interim or final report says when it is released later this year.

 

I'm not sure you are aware of how banks work.

Look up Fractional Reserve lending.

It's kind of majic, essentially creating money out of thin air.

Let's imagine you have $8

You can now lend a Tom $100

Charge Tom interest on $100

Cool Ha?

A good transcript with interaction from Reserve Bank of Australia
RBA fractional reserve banking open letter | The Taxpayers Party

 

hehehe. I'm not the only one occasionally making suggestions to the RBA then.

 

It come down to supply/demand. The demand might just not be there

 

Not sure how this relates to my comment?

 

I wish they would stop talking **** about apartments. Been waiting 8 months for this oversupply crash yet nothing happens.

(I shouldn't complain. I can get a 2 bedder for only 50k more than what was paid in 2010. According to Domain history profiles)

 

What makes this U turn so impressive is that their recent bulish prediction was so out of line with general sentiment.

 

There is no expert in published finance, all the publicity is all about fees, sales, transaction and ticket clipping or selling you a service if you don't already know that by now.

the real expert are the quiet one that said nothing and don't reveal their trade secret and go on to make the big bucks, so read all published article with a skeptic view.

Have you ever seen Warren Buffett tell you what shares to buy or how to invest your money? he just give you general money principles, and investment psychology lessons, information you can use to becomes an expert yourself.

He gives you plenty of advices over the years about ticket clippers and people selling you a service, stay the @#$@$ away it lower your return

When Warren Buffett buy shares he has a special permission from SEC to lodge his holding a few months late so people don't copy him and drive up the price.

that is the true expert

 

The current bearish property prediction is just a face saving measures by banks of what's already happening and published numbers are not reflecting it yet.
Banks are in business of lending, more they lend... more they make.
falling property prices brings some bad debt to their books which is not good for their business
so It doesn't make sense for them to deliberately hype the falls, if any thing its in their interest to be property spruikers.

 

House price debate goes from if they'll fall to by how much - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

"Economists and property analysts are scrambling to adjust their forecasts to catch up with the reality around them."

"ANZ was another institution that expected price falls, if any, to be very modest and short-lived.

That has changed with an updated forecast released on Tuesday that predicts Sydney and Melbourne prices may decline about 10 per cent from peak to trough, with smaller falls expected in most other cities except Canberra and Adelaide, both tipped to outperform."

 

CoreLogic Home Value Index - Monthly Indices | CoreLogic

Corelogic says Sydney down 4.21% yoy for all dwellings and Melbourne still up 2.22%.. Though MoM trend is downwards.

So ANZ people are not that far off using 10%.

As sash says, 10% down in some parts of Sydney already, and probably 20% down by year end is not such a stretch. .